Chine - Brésil : industrialisation et " désindustrialisation précoce "

Is this because the asymmetric trade relations between China and the Brazil have intensified that Brazil knows a "early deindustrialization"? For Asian countries, growth is consistent with industrialization, for Latin American countries, it is not more often. Industrialization on the one hand, "deindustrialization early" on the other, are - they both sides of the same medal or well-represent the existence for some, the absence of policy change and industrial policies adapted to the constraints posed by globalization? We will show that it is not the opening which leads to deindustrialization, low productivity growth and the reduction of the value added in many branches, but how to do it. It is not the relations between China and the Brazil which explain the "early deindustrialization" of the latter. This is not because they are asymmetrical, that they are désindustrialisantes for the Brazil. This is because the opening is not a policy of appropriate Exchange and an industrial policy accompanied appropriate than Brazil knows a "early deindustrialization." From this point of view, the Brazil has to learn from China.Est-ce parce que les relations commerciales asymétriques entre la Chine et le Brésil se sont intensifiées que le Brésil connait une " désindustrialisation précoce " ? Pour les pays asiatiques, la croissance est compatible avec l'industrialisation, pour les pays latino-américains, elle ne l'est pas le plus souvent. Industrialisation d'un côté, " désindustrialisation précoce " de l'autre, sont-elles les deux faces d'une même médaille ou bien traduisent-elles l'existence pour les uns, l'absence pour les autres de politiques de change et de politiques industrielles adaptées aux contraintes posées par la globalisation ? Nous montrerons que ce n'est pas l'ouverture qui conduit à la désindustrialisation, à la faible croissance de la productivité et à la réduction de la valeur ajoutée dans de nombreuses branches, mais la manière de la pratiquer. Ce ne sont pas les relations entre la Chine et le Brésil qui expliquent la "désindustrialisation précoce" de ce dernier. Ce n'est pas parce qu'elles sont asymétriques qu'elles sont désindustrialisantes pour le Brésil. C'est parce que l'ouverture ne s'accompagne pas d'une politique de change adéquate et d'une politique industrielle appropriée que le Brésil connait une " désindustrialisation précoce ". De ce point de vue, le Brésil a à apprendre de la Chine

Argentine, Brésil, Mexique entrent dans la tourmente. Quo vadis Amérique latine ?

From 2003 to 2012, a new period appears in Latin America. Growth is higher, the «basics» ( trade balance, budgetary balance, international reserves, unemployment, formal employment, inflation) more often better, social policies are more or less important depending on the country, poverty recedes and income inequality seems to decrease. The disappearance of the external constraint in the 2000s made less urgent to proceed with structural reforms. It pays now. From 2012, the difficulties appear in Argentina, the Brazil and, to a lesser extent, to the Mexico. The economic miracle becomes mirage, the new eldorado is not. With the brutal reversal of the price of raw materials, new vulnerabilities appear today and result in the prompt return of the external constraint to which the Governments of these countries thought escaped with rising prices and traded volumes. However, globalization is not guilty. This is the way, at least passive, to fit into the international division of labour which is.De 2003 à 2012, une période nouvelle apparait en Amérique latine. La croissance est plus élevée, les « fondamentaux » (soldes de la balance commerciale et du budget, réserves internationales, chômage, emplois formels, inflation) s’améliorent le plus souvent, les politiques sociales sont plus ou moins importantes selon les pays, la pauvreté recule et les inégalités de revenus paraissent diminuer. La disparition de la contrainte externe dans les années 2000 a rendu moins urgent de procéder à des réformes structurelles. Elle se paie aujourd’hui. A partir de 2012, les difficultés apparaissent en Argentine, au Brésil et, dans une moindre mesure, au Mexique. Le miracle économique devient mirage, le nouvel eldorado en n’est pas un. Avec le retournement brutal du cours des matières premières, de nouvelles vulnérabilités apparaissent aujourd’hui au grand jour et se traduisent par le retour rapide de la contrainte externe à laquelle les gouvernements de ces pays pensaient avoir échappé avec la hausse des cours et des volumes échangés. Pour autant, la globalisation n’est pas coupable. C’est la manière, pour le moins passive, de s’insérer dans la division internationale du travail qui l’est

Homicidios en América del Sur: ¿los pobres son peligrosos?

This paper studies the evolution of violence in South America. It analyzes and discusses the influence of different economic variables on homicide rates, using an econometric test based on data of some South American countries during the period 1995-2000. It shows that this economic approach can be usefull but can also be dangerous when it leads to the wrong policies of social exclusion. Furthermore, it also shows how variables such rapid urbanization, low education, and inefficient regulations, together with corruption, play an important role in the generation of violence in South America. Finally, the paper recommends changing the way of perceiving economics and its social implications, by examining the interaction of this discipline with other social sciences.violence, homicides, poverty, South America

UNE CRISE STRUCTURELLE AU BRESIL

Il s’agit de mettre en évidence l’ampleur et la nature de la récente crise structurelle brésilienne, tant au sens économique que politique. La crise politique aggrave la crise économique, et vice et versa, pouvant entrainer une crise institutionnelle. La lutte de classe devient plus forte, tandis que la légitimation étatique chute. Alors, une tentative de coup d’État médiatico-politique est en cours.Mots-clefs: Crise structurelle brésilienne, lutte de classe, coup d’État

Brasil, balanço econômico da presidência Bolsonaro

This paper makes an economic assessment of Jair Bolsonaro's presidency. It analyzes the triangle of incompatibilities: high income inequality-reprimarization of the economy-high economic growth; and if one adds the environment, one could say the impossible squaring of the circle. The result of this impossibility is economic stagnation, persistent high inequality, deterioration of the standard of living, especially of the poorest, and serious damage to the environment through deforestation. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have shaken an already "sick" economy and reveal the structural crisis in Brazil, as well as the turning points in the functioning of the labor market. The present ruptures suggest the political exhaustion of the current presidency and that the country is at a crossroads.Este artículo hace una evaluación económica de la presidencia de Jair Bolsonaro. Analiza el triángulo de incompatibilidades: gran desigualdad de ingresos-reprimarización de la economía-alto crecimiento económico; y si se añade el medio ambiente, se podría decir la imposible cuadratura del círculo. El resultado de esta imposibilidad es el estancamiento económico, la persistencia de una gran desigualdad, el deterioro del nivel de vida, sobre todo de los más pobres, y graves daños al medio ambiente por la deforestación. La pandemia y la guerra en Ucrania han sacudido a una economía ya “enferma” y revelan la crisis estructural que vive Brasil, así como los puntos de inflexión en el funcionamiento del mercado laboral. Las rupturas presentes sugieren el agotamiento político de la actual presidencia y que el país está en una encrucijada.Este artigo faz uma avaliação econômica da presidência de Jair Bolsonaro. Ele analisa o triângulo das incompatibilidades: alta desigualdade de renda - reprimarização da economia - alto crescimento econômico; e se acrescentarmos o meio ambiente, poderíamos dizer a quadratura impossível do círculo. O resultado desta impossibilidade é a estagnação econômica, a persistente alta desigualdade, a deterioração do padrão de vida, especialmente para os mais pobres, e graves danos ao meio ambiente através do desmatamento. A pandemia e a guerra na Ucrânia abalaram uma economia já "doente" e revelam a crise estrutural no Brasil, bem como os pontos de inflexão no funcionamento do mercado de trabalho. As rupturas atuais sugerem o esgotamento político da atual presidência e que o país se encontra em uma encruzilhada

As classes médias podem dinamizar o crescimento do PIB nas economias emergentes?

One observes a tendency to the increase in the middle class whatever the criterion of membership adopted. With a broad definition of the middle class, the vulnerable group tends to lose of its importance and the heterogeneity of this group increases. On the contrary, the choice of a narrow definition of the middle class limit their character "catches all". Some economists see in this rise of the middle class to spur economic growth of the emergent economies. Others consider that the rise of the middle class comes from the growth and that a virtuous circle could exist between growth and middle class. Within the framework of a controlled globalization, these two theses are erroneous: a redistribution of the incomes in favour of the the most underprivileged sectors can increase the growth.Observa-se uma tendência de aumento das classes médias, qualquer que seja o critério de inclusão adotado. Com uma definição ampla de classes médias, aumenta sua heterogeneidade e o grupo vulnerável tende a perder sua importância. Inversamente, a escolha de uma definição estreita de classes médias limita seu caráter "saco de gatos". Alguns veem nessa expansão das classes médias uma oportunidade de redinamizar o crescimento. Outros consideram que a expansão das classes médias decorre do crescimento e que um círculo virtuoso poderia existir entre crescimento e classes médias. No quadro de uma globalização controlada, essas duas teses estão erradas: uma redistribuição da renda em favor das categorias mais pobres pode dinamizar o cresciment