Prediction and Topological Models in Neuroscience

In the last two decades, philosophy of neuroscience has predominantly focused on explanation. Indeed, it has been argued that mechanistic models are the standards of explanatory success in neuroscience over, among other things, topological models. However, explanatory power is only one virtue of a scientific model. Another is its predictive power. Unfortunately, the notion of prediction has received comparatively little attention in the philosophy of neuroscience, in part because predictions seem disconnected from interventions. In contrast, we argue that topological predictions can and do guide interventions in science, both inside and outside of neuroscience. Topological models allow researchers to predict many phenomena, including diseases, treatment outcomes, aging, and cognition, among others. Moreover, we argue that these predictions also offer strategies for useful interventions. Topology-based predictions play this role regardless of whether they do or can receive a mechanistic interpretation. We conclude by making a case for philosophers to focus on prediction in neuroscience in addition to explanation alone

White matter disturbances in major depressive disorder : a coordinated analysis across 20 international cohorts in the ENIGMA MDD working group

Altres ajuts: The ENIGMA-Major Depressive Disorder working group gratefully acknowledges support from the NIH Big Data to Knowledge (BD2K) award (U54 EB020403 to PMT) and NIH grant R01 MH116147 (PMT). LS is supported by an NHMRC MRFF Career Development Fellowship (APP1140764). We wish to acknowledge the patients and control subjects that have particiaped int the study. We thank Rosa Schirmer, Elke Schreiter, Reinhold Borschke and Ines Eidner for image acquisition and data preparation, and Anna Oliynyk for quality checks. We thank Dorothee P. Auer and F. Holsboer for initiation of the RUD study. We wish to acknowledge the patients and control subjects that have particiaped int the study. We thank Rosa Schirmer, Elke Schreiter, Reinhold Borschke and Ines Eidner for image acquisition and data preparation, and Anna Oliynyk for quality checks. We thank Dorothee P. Auer and F. Holsboer for initiation of the RUD study. NESDA: The infrastructure for the NESDA study (www.nesda.nl) is funded through the Geestkracht program of the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (Zon-Mw, grant number 10-000-1002) and is supported by participating universities (VU University Medical Center, GGZ inGeest, Arkin, Leiden University Medical Center, GGZ Rivierduinen, University Medical Center Groningen) and mental health care organizations, see www.nesda.nl. M-JvT was supported by a VENI grant (NWO grant number 016.156.077). UCSF: This work was supported by the Brain and Behavior Research Foundation (formerly NARSAD) to TTY; the National Institute of Mental Health (R01MH085734 to TTY; K01MH117442 to TCH) and by the American Foundation for Suicide Prevention (PDF-1-064-13) to TCH. Stanford: This work was supported by NIMH Grants R01MH59259 and R37101495 to IHG. MS is partially supported by an award funded by the Phyllis and Jerome Lyle Rappaport Foundation. Muenster: This work was funded by the German Research Foundation (SFB-TRR58, Projects C09 and Z02 to UD) and the Interdisciplinary Center for Clinical Research (IZKF) of the medical faculty of Münster (grant Dan3/012/17 to UD). Marburg: This work was funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG, grant FOR2107 DA1151/5-1 and DA1151/5-2 to UD; KI 588/ 14-1, KI 588/14-2 to TK; KR 3822/7-1, KR 3822/7-2 to AK; JA 1890/ 7-1, JA 1890/7-2 to AJ). IMH-MDD: This work was supported by the National Healthcare Group Research Grant (SIG/15012) awarded to KS. Barcelona: This study was funded by two grants of the Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III, by the Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental (CIBERSAM). The author is funded through 'Miguel Servet' research contract (CP16-0020), co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) (2016-2019). QTIM: We thank the twins and singleton siblings who gave generously of their time to participate in the QTIM study. We also thank the many research assistants, radiographers, and IT support staff for data acquisition and DNA sample preparation. This study was funded by White matter disturbances in major depressive disorder: a coordinated analysis across 20 international. . . 1521 the National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (RO1 HD050735); National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (Award 1U54EB020403-01, Subaward 56929223); National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (Project Grants 496682, 1009064). NIH ENIGMA-BD2K U54 EB020403 (Thompson); R01 MH117601 (Jahanshad/Schmaal). Magdeburg: M.L. and M.W. are funded by SFB 779. Bipolar Family Study: This study has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013). This paper reflects only the author's views and the European Union is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. This work was also supported by a Wellcome Trust Strategic Award (104036/Z/14/Z). Minnesota Adolescent Depression Study: The study was funded by the National Institute of Mental Health (K23MH090421), the National Alliance for Research on Schizophrenia and Depression, the University of Minnesota Graduate School, the Minnesota Medical Foundation, and the Biotechnology Research Center (P41 RR008079 to the Center for Magnetic Resonance Research), University of Minnesota, and the Deborah E. Powell Center for Women's Health Seed Grant, University of Minnesota. Dublin: This study was supported by Science Foundation Ireland through a Stokes Professorhip grant to TF. MPIP: The MPIP Sample comprises patients included in the Recurrent Unipolar Depression (RUD) Case-Control study at the clinic of the Max Planck Institute of Psychiatry, Munich, German. The RUD study was supported by GlaxoSmithKline.Alterations in white matter (WM) microstructure have been implicated in the pathophysiology of major depressive disorder (MDD). However, previous findings have been inconsistent, partially due to low statistical power and the heterogeneity of depression. In the largest multi-site study to date, we examined WM anisotropy and diffusivity in 1305 MDD patients and 1602 healthy controls (age range 12-88 years) from 20 samples worldwide, which included both adults and adolescents, within the MDD Working Group of the Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) consortium. Processing of diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data and statistical analyses were harmonized across sites and effects were meta-analyzed across studies. We observed subtle, but widespread, lower fractional anisotropy (FA) in adult MDD patients compared with controls in 16 out of 25 WM tracts of interest (Cohen's d between 0.12 and 0.26). The largest differences were observed in the corpus callosum and corona radiata. Widespread higher radial diffusivity (RD) was also observed (all Cohen's d between 0.12 and 0.18). Findings appeared to be driven by patients with recurrent MDD and an adult age of onset of depression. White matter microstructural differences in a smaller sample of adolescent MDD patients and controls did not survive correction for multiple testing. In this coordinated and harmonized multisite DTI study, we showed subtle, but widespread differences in WM microstructure in adult MDD, which may suggest structural disconnectivity in MDD

Predicting risk for Alcohol Use Disorder using longitudinal data with multimodal biomarkers and family history: a machine learning study.

Predictive models have succeeded in distinguishing between individuals with Alcohol use Disorder (AUD) and controls. However, predictive models identifying who is prone to develop AUD and the biomarkers indicating a predisposition to AUD are still unclear. Our sample (n = 656) included offspring and non-offspring of European American (EA) and African American (AA) ancestry from the Collaborative Study of the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA) who were recruited as early as age 12 and were unaffected at first assessment and reassessed years later as AUD (DSM-5) (n = 328) or unaffected (n = 328). Machine learning analysis was performed for 220 EEG measures, 149 alcohol-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from a recent large Genome-wide Association Study (GWAS) of alcohol use/misuse and two family history (mother DSM-5 AUD and father DSM-5 AUD) features using supervised, Linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to test which features assessed before developing AUD predict those who go on to develop AUD. Age, gender, and ancestry stratified analyses were performed. Results indicate significant and higher accuracy rates for the AA compared with the EA prediction models and a higher model accuracy trend among females compared with males for both ancestries. Combined EEG and SNP features model outperformed models based on only EEG features or only SNP features for both EA and AA samples. This multidimensional superiority was confirmed in a follow-up analysis in the AA age groups (12-15, 16-19, 20-30) and EA age group (16-19). In both ancestry samples, the youngest age group achieved higher accuracy score than the two other older age groups. Maternal AUD increased the model's accuracy in both ancestries' samples. Several discriminative EEG measures and SNPs features were identified, including lower posterior gamma, higher slow wave connectivity (delta, theta, alpha), higher frontal gamma ratio, higher beta correlation in the parietal area, and 5 SNPs: rs4780836, rs2605140, rs11690265, rs692854, and rs13380649. Results highlight the significance of sampling uniformity followed by stratified (e.g., ancestry, gender, developmental period) analysis, and wider selection of features, to generate better prediction scores allowing a more accurate estimation of AUD development

Subcortical volume and white matter integrity abnormalities in major depressive disorder:Findings from UK Biobank imaging data

Previous reports of altered grey and white matter structure in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) have been inconsistent. Recent meta-analyses have, however, reported reduced hippocampal grey matter volume in MDD and reduced white matter integrity in several brain regions. The use of different diagnostic criteria, scanners and imaging sequences may, however, obscure further anatomical differences. In this study, we tested for differences in subcortical grey matter volume (n = 1157) and white matter integrity (n = 1089) between depressed individuals and controls in the subset of 8590 UK Biobank Imaging study participants who had undergone depression assessments. Whilst we found no significant differences in subcortical volumes, significant reductions were found in depressed individuals versus controls in global white matter integrity, as measured by fractional anisotropy (FA) (β = −0.182, p = 0.005). We also found reductions in FA in association/commissural fibres (β = −0.184, pcorrected = 0.010) and thalamic radiations (β = −0.159, pcorrected = 0.020). Tract-specific FA reductions were also found in the left superior longitudinal fasciculus (β = −0.194, pcorrected = 0.025), superior thalamic radiation (β = −0.224, pcorrected = 0.009) and forceps major (β = −0.193, pcorrected = 0.025) in depression (all betas standardised). Our findings provide further evidence for disrupted white matter integrity in MDD

Subcortical volumes across the lifespan: Data from 18,605 healthy individuals aged 3-90 years

Age has a major effect on brain volume. However, the normative studies available are constrained by small sample sizes, restricted age coverage and significant methodological variability. These limitations introduce inconsistencies and may obscure or distort the lifespan trajectories of brain morphometry. In response, we capitalized on the resources of the Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) Consortium to examine age-related trajectories inferred from cross-sectional measures of the ventricles, the basal ganglia (caudate, putamen, pallidum, and nucleus accumbens), the thalamus, hippocampus and amygdala using magnetic resonance imaging data obtained from 18,605 individuals aged 3-90 years. All subcortical structure volumes were at their maximum value early in life. The volume of the basal ganglia showed a monotonic negative association with age thereafter; there was no significant association between age and the volumes of the thalamus, amygdala and the hippocampus (with some degree of decline in thalamus) until the sixth decade of life after which they also showed a steep negative association with age. The lateral ventricles showed continuous enlargement throughout the lifespan. Age was positively associated with inter-individual variability in the hippocampus and amygdala and the lateral ventricles. These results were robust to potential confounders and could be used to examine the functional significance of deviations from typical age-related morphometric patterns

An analysis-ready and quality controlled resource for pediatric brain white-matter research

We created a set of resources to enable research based on openly-available diffusion MRI (dMRI) data from the Healthy Brain Network (HBN) study. First, we curated the HBN dMRI data (N = 2747) into the Brain Imaging Data Structure and preprocessed it according to best-practices, including denoising and correcting for motion effects, susceptibility-related distortions, and eddy currents. Preprocessed, analysis-ready data was made openly available. Data quality plays a key role in the analysis of dMRI. To optimize QC and scale it to this large dataset, we trained a neural network through the combination of a small data subset scored by experts and a larger set scored by community scientists. The network performs QC highly concordant with that of experts on a held out set (ROC-AUC = 0.947). A further analysis of the neural network demonstrates that it relies on image features with relevance to QC. Altogether, this work both delivers resources to advance transdiagnostic research in brain connectivity and pediatric mental health, and establishes a novel paradigm for automated QC of large datasets. BárbaraAvelar-Pereira 9 , EthanRoy2 , Valerie J.Sydnor3,4,5, JasonD.Yeatman1,2, The Fibr Community Science Consortium*, TheodoreD.Satterthwaite3,4,5,88 & Ariel Roke

Large-Scale Hypoconnectivity Between Resting-State Functional Networks in Unmedicated Adolescent Major Depressive Disorder.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) often emerges during adolescence, a critical period of brain development. Recent resting-state fMRI studies of adults suggest that MDD is associated with abnormalities within and between resting-state networks (RSNs). Here we tested whether adolescent MDD is characterized by abnormalities in interactions among RSNs. Participants were 55 unmedicated adolescents diagnosed with MDD and 56 matched healthy controls. Functional connectivity was mapped using resting-state fMRI. We used the network-based statistic (NBS) to compare large-scale connectivity between groups and also compared the groups on graph metrics. We further assessed whether group differences identified using nodes defined from functionally defined RSNs were also evident when using anatomically defined nodes. In addition, we examined relations between network abnormalities and depression severity and duration. Finally, we compared intranetwork connectivity between groups and assessed the replication of previously reported MDD-related abnormalities in connectivity. The NBS indicated that, compared with controls, depressed adolescents exhibited reduced connectivity (p<0.024, corrected) between a specific set of RSNs, including components of the attention, central executive, salience, and default mode networks. The NBS did not identify group differences in network connectivity when using anatomically defined nodes. Longer duration of depression was significantly correlated with reduced connectivity in this set of network interactions (p=0.020, corrected), specifically with reduced connectivity between components of the dorsal attention network. The dorsal attention network was also characterized by reduced intranetwork connectivity in the MDD group. Finally, we replicated previously reported abnormal connectivity in individuals with MDD. In summary, adolescents with MDD show hypoconnectivity between large-scale brain networks compared with healthy controls. Given that connectivity among these networks typically increases during adolescent neurodevelopment, these results suggest that adolescent depression is associated with abnormalities in neural systems that are still developing during this critical period

Emerging Frontiers of Neuroengineering: A Network Science of Brain Connectivity

Neuroengineering is faced with unique challenges in repairing or replacing complex neural systems that are composed of many interacting parts. These interactions form intricate patterns over large spatiotemporal scales and produce emergent behaviors that are difficult to predict from individual elements. Network science provides a particularly appropriate framework in which to study and intervene in such systems by treating neural elements (cells, volumes) as nodes in a graph and neural interactions (synapses, white matter tracts) as edges in that graph. Here, we review the emerging discipline of network neuroscience, which uses and develops tools from graph theory to better understand and manipulate neural systems from micro- to macroscales. We present examples of how human brain imaging data are being modeled with network analysis and underscore potential pitfalls. We then highlight current computational and theoretical frontiers and emphasize their utility in informing diagnosis and monitoring, brain-machine interfaces, and brain stimulation. A flexible and rapidly evolving enterprise, network neuroscience provides a set of powerful approaches and fundamental insights that are critical for the neuroengineers tool kit