The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

Impact and cost-effectiveness of the national scale-up of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among female sex workers in South Africa: a modelling analysis.

INTRODUCTION: In 2016, South Africa (SA) initiated a national programme to scale-up pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among female sex workers (FSWs), with ∼20,000 PrEP initiations among FSWs (∼14% of FSW) by 2020. We evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of this programme, including future scale-up scenarios and the potential detrimental impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A compartmental HIV transmission model for SA was adapted to include PrEP. Using estimates on self-reported PrEP adherence from a national study of FSW (67.7%) and the Treatment and Prevention for FSWs (TAPS) PrEP demonstration study in SA (80.8%), we down-adjusted TAPS estimates for the proportion of FSWs with detectable drug levels (adjusted range: 38.0-70.4%). The model stratified FSW by low (undetectable drug; 0% efficacy) and high adherence (detectable drug; 79.9%; 95% CI: 67.2-87.6% efficacy). FSWs can transition between adherence levels, with lower loss-to-follow-up among highly adherent FSWs (aHR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.40-0.85; TAPS data). The model was calibrated to monthly data on the national scale-up of PrEP among FSWs over 2016-2020, including reductions in PrEP initiations during 2020. The model projected the impact of the current programme (2016-2020) and the future impact (2021-2040) at current coverage or if initiation and/or retention are doubled. Using published cost data, we assessed the cost-effectiveness (healthcare provider perspective; 3% discount rate; time horizon 2016-2040) of the current PrEP provision. RESULTS: Calibrated to national data, model projections suggest that 2.1% of HIV-negative FSWs were currently on PrEP in 2020, with PrEP preventing 0.45% (95% credibility interval, 0.35-0.57%) of HIV infections among FSWs over 2016-2020 or 605 (444-840) infections overall. Reductions in PrEP initiations in 2020 possibly reduced infections averted by 18.57% (13.99-23.29). PrEP is cost-saving, with $1.42 (1.03-1.99) of ART costs saved per dollar spent on PrEP. Going forward, existing coverage of PrEP will avert 5,635 (3,572-9,036) infections by 2040. However, if PrEP initiation and retention doubles, then PrEP coverage increases to 9.9% (8.7-11.6%) and impact increases 4.3 times with 24,114 (15,308-38,107) infections averted by 2040. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings advocate for the expansion of PrEP to FSWs throughout SA to maximize its impact. This should include strategies to optimize retention and should target women in contact with FSW services

The prognosis of allocentric and egocentric neglect : evidence from clinical scans

We contrasted the neuroanatomical substrates of sub-acute and chronic visuospatial deficits associated with different aspects of unilateral neglect using computed tomography scans acquired as part of routine clinical diagnosis. Voxel-wise statistical analyses were conducted on a group of 160 stroke patients scanned at a sub-acute stage. Lesion-deficit relationships were assessed across the whole brain, separately for grey and white matter. We assessed lesions that were associated with behavioural performance (i) at a sub-acute stage (within 3 months of the stroke) and (ii) at a chronic stage (after 9 months post stroke). Allocentric and egocentric neglect symptoms at the sub-acute stage were associated with lesions to dissociated regions within the frontal lobe, amongst other regions. However the frontal lesions were not associated with neglect at the chronic stage. On the other hand, lesions in the angular gyrus were associated with persistent allocentric neglect. In contrast, lesions within the superior temporal gyrus extending into the supramarginal gyrus, as well as lesions within the basal ganglia and insula, were associated with persistent egocentric neglect. Damage within the temporo-parietal junction was associated with both types of neglect at the sub-acute stage and 9 months later. Furthermore, white matter disconnections resulting from damage along the superior longitudinal fasciculus were associated with both types of neglect and critically related to both sub-acute and chronic deficits. Finally, there was a significant difference in the lesion volume between patients who recovered from neglect and patients with chronic deficits. The findings presented provide evidence that (i) the lesion location and lesion size can be used to successfully predict the outcome of neglect based on clinical CT scans, (ii) lesion location alone can serve as a critical predictor for persistent neglect symptoms, (iii) wide spread lesions are associated with neglect symptoms at the sub-acute stage but only some of these are critical for predicting whether neglect will become a chronic disorder and (iv) the severity of behavioural symptoms can be a useful predictor of recovery in the absence of neuroimaging findings on clinical scans. We discuss the implications for understanding the symptoms of the neglect syndrome, the recovery of function and the use of clinical scans to predict outcome

Increasing condom use in heterosexual men: development of a theory-based interactive digital intervention

Increasing condom use to prevent sexually transmitted infections is a key public health goal. Interventions are more likely to be effective if they are theory- and evidence-based. The Behaviour Change Wheel (BCW) provides a framework for intervention development. To provide an example of how the BCW was used to develop an intervention to increase condom use in heterosexual men (the MenSS website), the steps of the BCW intervention development process were followed, incorporating evidence from the research literature and views of experts and the target population. Capability (e.g. knowledge) and motivation (e.g. beliefs about pleasure) were identified as important targets of the intervention. We devised ways to address each intervention target, including selecting interactive features and behaviour change techniques. The BCW provides a useful framework for integrating sources of evidence to inform intervention content and deciding which influences on behaviour to target

Helical Chirality: a Link between Local Interactions and Global Topology in DNA

DNA supercoiling plays a major role in many cellular functions. The global DNA conformation is however intimately linked to local DNA-DNA interactions influencing both the physical properties and the biological functions of the supercoiled molecule. Juxtaposition of DNA double helices in ubiquitous crossover arrangements participates in multiple functions such as recombination, gene regulation and DNA packaging. However, little is currently known about how the structure and stability of direct DNA-DNA interactions influence the topological state of DNA. Here, a crystallographic analysis shows that due to the intrinsic helical chirality of DNA, crossovers of opposite handedness exhibit markedly different geometries. While right-handed crossovers are self-fitted by sequence-specific groove-backbone interaction and bridging Mg2+ sites, left-handed crossovers are juxtaposed by groove-groove interaction. Our previous calculations have shown that the different geometries result in differential stabilisation in solution, in the presence of divalent cations. The present study reveals that the various topological states of the cell are associated with different inter-segmental interactions. While the unstable left-handed crossovers are exclusively formed in negatively supercoiled DNA, stable right-handed crossovers constitute the local signature of an unusual topological state in the cell, such as the positively supercoiled or relaxed DNA. These findings not only provide a simple mechanism for locally sensing the DNA topology but also lead to the prediction that, due to their different tertiary intra-molecular interactions, supercoiled molecules of opposite signs must display markedly different physical properties. Sticky inter-segmental interactions in positively supercoiled or relaxed DNA are expected to greatly slow down the slithering dynamics of DNA. We therefore suggest that the intrinsic helical chirality of DNA may have oriented the early evolutionary choices for DNA topology

Methods for specifying the target difference in a randomised controlled trial : the Difference ELicitation in TriAls (DELTA) systematic review

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The Morphology and Intrinsic Excitability of Developing Mouse Retinal Ganglion Cells

The retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) have diverse morphology and physiology. Although some studies show that correlations between morphological properties and physiological properties exist in cat RGCs, these properties are much less distinct and their correlations are unknown in mouse RGCs. In this study, using three-dimensional digital neuron reconstruction, we systematically analyzed twelve morphological parameters of mouse RGCs as they developed in the first four postnatal weeks. The development of these parameters fell into three different patterns and suggested that contact from bipolar cells and eye opening might play important roles in RGC morphological development. Although there has been a general impression that the morphological parameters are not independent, such as RGCs with larger dendritic fields usually have longer but sparser dendrites, there was not systematic study and statistical analysis proving it. We used Pearson's correlation coefficients to determine the relationship among these morphological parameters and demonstrated that many morphological parameters showed high statistical correlation. In the same cells we also measured seven physiological parameters using whole-cell patch-clamp recording, focusing on intrinsic excitability. We previously reported the increase in intrinsic excitability in mouse RGCs during early postnatal development. Here we showed that strong correlations also existed among many physiological parameters that measure the intrinsic excitability. However, Pearson's correlation coefficient revealed very limited correlation across morphological and physiological parameters. In addition, principle component analysis failed to separate RGCs into clusters using combined morphological and physiological parameters. Therefore, despite strong correlations within the morphological parameters and within the physiological parameters, postnatal mouse RGCs had only limited correlation between morphology and physiology. This may be due to developmental immaturity, or to selection of parameters

Produção orgânica de rabanete em plantio direto sobre cobertura morta e viva.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o uso de plantas espontâneas e cobertura viva de amendoim forrageiro(Arachis pintoi), associado à aplicação de composto orgânico na produção orgânica do rabanete em plantio direto. O experimento foi instalado na Universidade Federal do Acre, em Rio Branco-AC, de 15/06 a 14/07/2007. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi em blocos casualizados com parcelas subdivididas 4x3, em quatro repetições. As parcelas corresponderam ao sistema de plantio direto com cobertura viva de amendoim forrageiro, cobertura viva de planta espontânea, cobertura morta de planta espontânea e sistema de plantio em canteiro com solo descoberto. As subparcelas foram compostas pelas doses de composto orgânico de 5, 10 e 15 t ha-1 (base seca). O plantio direto na palha de plantas espontâneas teve desempenho semelhante ao preparo convencional do solo, ambos superiores ao plantio sobre as coberturas vivas. A produtividade do rabanete cv. Cometo, não foi afetada pelas doses crescentes de composto orgânico, podendo aplicar-se apenas 5 t ha-1, enquanto em preparo convencional do solo, o aumento da produtividade ultrapassa o plantio direto na palha apenas na dose maior de composto (15 t ha-1)

Direct Observation of Strand Passage by DNA-Topoisomerase and Its Limited Processivity

Type-II DNA topoisomerases resolve DNA entanglements such as supercoils, knots and catenanes by passing one segment of DNA duplex through a transient enzyme-bridged double-stranded break in another segment. The ATP-dependent passage reaction has previously been demonstrated at the single-molecule level, showing apparent processivity at saturating ATP. Here we directly observed the strand passage by human topoisomerase IIα, after winding a pair of fluorescently stained DNA molecules with optical tweezers for 30 turns into an X-shaped braid. On average 0.51±0.33 µm (11±6 turns) of a braid was unlinked in a burst of reactions taking 8±4 s, the unlinked length being essentially independent of the enzyme concentration between 0.25–37 pM. The time elapsed before the start of processive unlinking decreased with the enzyme concentration, being ∼100 s at 3.7 pM. These results are consistent with a scenario where the enzyme binds to one DNA for a period of ∼10 s, waiting for multiple diffusional encounters with the other DNA to transport it across the break ∼10 times, and then dissociates from the binding site without waiting for the exhaustion of transportable DNA segments