The potential impact of the global financial crisis on world trade

This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Policies

Effects of Zebra, Mussel, Dreissena Polymorpha Infestation on Lake Dardanelle Water Quality

Zebra mussels recently invaded southern waterways including the Arkansas River. Large-scale filtration of suspended particulate matter by dense populations could alter reservoir ecosystem function. Furthermore, they attach to hard surfaces, thereby threatening normal operations of artificial structures. We designed this study to provide baseline data prior to establishment of high population levels of zebra mussels in Lake Dardanelle. The characterization of spatial and temporal variability in water quality, zooplankton, phytoplankton, and macrophytes will allow testing of several hypotheses. We sampled zebra mussel veliger and settling juvenile densities and zooplankton densities at four fixed sites and the key water quality variables at three of the sites biweekly from July 1995 through June 1996. Data from previous years regarding the above parameters is contained in other reports. Production of zebra mussel veligers was approximately the same between the 1994-1995 and 1995-1996 sample seasons, but the number of adults increased dramatically. Veliger density frequently exceeded 20/L and the mean density of adults was \u3e 4,000 m2 during the 1995-1996 sample season. We observed substantial increases in ion concentrations, phosphate, conductivity, and Secchi disk visibility this sample season compared to the 1994-1995 sample season. Mean concentrations for calcium, magnesium, sulfate, chloride, and phosphate increased 43%, 42%, 42%, 48%, and 50%, respectively. Mean conductivity increased 44%, and four of the five highest Secchi disk readings taken the past three years were recorded in 1996. We observed substantial decreases in turbidity (31%), total dissolved solids (23%), and total phosphorous (13%). Densities of major zooplankton taxa were not substantially different this season compared with the 1994-1995 sample season. We observed slight increases in mean concentrations of chlorophylls a, b, and c, and a slight decrease in the mean percent coverage of rooted marcrophytes, but the values were not substantially different than those that we observed during the 1994-1995 sample season

Phylogeography and Vicariant Separation of Two River Darters, Percina uranidea and Percina vigil, from rivers that drain the North American Interior Highlands

The phylogeography and separation of two river darters, Percina uranidea and P. vigil were investigated through sequencing of the mitochondrial Cytochrome B and Cytochrome Oxidase genes. These molecular markers revealed the darters exhibit moderate genetic divergence between two large river drainage systems within the Mississippi River basin associated with the Interior Highlands of midwestern North America. An additional haplotype network analysis also supported these trends. Phylogenetic divergence dating indicated that population separation between the river systems occurred after recent Pleistocene glacial events rather than an early Pleistocene separation

How Politics Shape Views Toward Fact-Checking: Evidence from Six European Countries

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from SAGE Publications via the DOI in this recordFact-checking has spread internationally, in part to confront the rise of digital disinformation campaigns. American studies suggests ideological asymmetry in attitudes towards factchecking, as well as greater acceptance of the practice among those more interested in and knowledgeable about politics. We examine attitudes toward fact-checking across 6 European counties to put these findings in a broader context (N = 6,067). We find greater familiarity with and acceptance of fact-checking in Northern Europe (Sweden, Germany) than elsewhere (Italy, Spain, France, Poland). We further find two dimensions of political antipathy: a left-right dimension and an “anti-elite” dimension (including dissatisfaction with democracy and negative feelings toward the E.U.), the latter of which more consistently predicts negative feelings toward fact-checkers in the countries examined. Our findings demonstrate that despite general acceptance of the movement, significant political divides remain. Those less likely to trust factcheckers could be more vulnerable to disinformation targeting these divides, leading to a spiral of cynicism.European Commissio

Glycolaldehyde formation via the dimerization of the formyl radical

Glycolaldehyde, the simplest monosaccharide sugar, has recently been detected in low- and high-mass star-forming cores. Following our previous investigation into glycolaldehyde formation, we now consider a further mechanism for the formation of glycolaldehyde that involves the dimerization of the formyl radical, HCO. Quantum mechanical investigation of the HCO dimerization process upon an ice surface is predicted to be barrierless and therefore fast. In an astrophysical context, we show that this mechanism can be very efficient in star-forming cores. It is limited by the availability of the formyl radical, but models suggest that only very small amounts of CO are required to be converted to HCO to meet the observational constraints

Smaller Regional Gray Matter Volume in Homeless African American Cocaine-Dependent Men: A Preliminary Report

Models of addiction include abnormalities in parts of the brain involving executive function/inhibitory control. Although previous studies have reported evidence of structural abnormalities in cocaine-dependent individuals, none have specifically targeted the homeless. The present preliminary study investigated brain structure in such an understudied group, homeless, crack-cocaine-dependent African American men (n = 9), comparing it to that in healthy controls (n = 8). Structural data were analyzed using voxel based morphometry (VBM) and a regions of interest (ROI) analysis. Homeless cocaine-dependent individuals had smaller gray matter volume in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, the cerebellum, insula, and superior temporal gyrus. Most of these areas subserve executive function or inhibitory control. These results are similar to those found in most previous studies of non-homeless cocaine-dependent individuals. Reduced gray matter in executive function/inhibitory control regions of the brain in cocaine-dependent individuals may be a preexisting risk factor for the development of addiction and/or a consequence of drug abuse

Social corrections act as a double-edged sword by reducing the perceived accuracy of false and real news in the UK, Germany, and Italy

This is the final version. Available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record. Data availability: All shareable data are found on the online OSF repository at https://osf.io/jhwfgCode availability: All the code including reproducible analyses are found on the online OSF repository at https://osf.io/4hjcf for data relating to the UK, https://osf.io/yvdj4 for Italy, and https:// osf.io/jhwfg Germany.Corrective or refutational posts from ordinary users on social media have the potential to improve the online information ecosystem. While initial evidence of these social corrections is promising, a better understanding of the effects across different topics, formats, and audiences is needed. In three pre-registered experiments (N = 1944 UK, N = 2467 Italy, N = 2210 Germany) where respondents completed a social media post assessment task with false and true news posts on various topics (e.g., health, climate change, technology), we find that social corrections reduce perceived accuracy of and engagement with false news posts. We also find that social corrections that flag true news as false decrease perceived accuracy of and engagement with true news posts. We did not find evidence to support moderation of these effects by correction strength, anti-expert sentiments, cognitive reflection capacities, or susceptibility to social influence. While social corrections can be effective for false news, they may also undermine belief in true news.British AcademyDavidson Colleg

Oncolytic Viruses: Do They Have a Role in Anti-Cancer Therapy?

Oncolytic viruses are replication competent, tumor selective and lyse cancer cells. Their potential for anti-cancer therapy is based upon the concept that selective intratumoral replication will produce a potent anti-tumor effect and possibly bystander or remote cell killing, whilst minimizing normal tissue toxicity. Viruses may be naturally oncolytic or be engineered for oncolytic activity, and possess a host of different mechanisms to provide tumor selectivity. Clinical use of live replicating viruses is associated with a unique set of safety issues. Clinical experience has so far provided evidence of limited efficacy and a favourable toxicity profile. The interaction with the host immune system is complex. An anti-viral immune response may limit efficacy by rapidly clearing the virus. However, virally-induced cell lysis releases tumor associated antigens in a ‘dangerous’ context, and limited evidence suggests that this can lead to the generation of a specific anti-tumor immune response. Combination therapy with chemotherapy or radiotherapy represents a promising avenue for ongoing translation of oncolytic viruses into clinical practice. Obstacles to therapy include highly effective non-specific host mechanisms to clear virus following systemic delivery, immune-mediated clearance, and intratumoral barriers limiting virus spread. A number of novel strategies are now under investigation to overcome these barriers. This review provides an overview of the potential role of oncolytic viruses, highlighting recent progress towards developing effective therapy and asks if they are a realistic therapeutic option at this stage