Cardiovascular risk factor mapping and distribution among adults in Mukono and Buikwe districts in Uganda: small area analysis

Background Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing an increasing burden of Cardiovascular Diseases (CVDs). Modifiable risk factors including hypertension, diabetes, obesity, central obesity, sedentary behaviours, smoking, poor diet (characterised by inadequate vegetable and fruit consumption), and psychosocial stress are attributable to the growing burden of CVDs. Small geographical area mapping and analysis of these risk factors for CVD is lacking in most of sub-Saharan Africa and yet such data has the potential to inform monitoring and exploration of patterns of morbidity, health-care use, and mortality, as well as the epidemiology of risk factors. In the current study, we map and describe the distribution of the CVD risk factors in 20 parishes in two neighbouring districts in Uganda. Methods A baseline survey benchmarking a type-2 hybrid stepped wedge cluster randomised trial design was conducted in December 2018 and January 2019. A sample of 4372 adults aged 25–70 years was drawn from 3689 randomly selected households across 80 villages in 20 parishes in Mukono and Buikwe districts in Uganda. Descriptive statistics and generalized linear modelling controlled for clustering were conducted for this analysis in Stata 13.0, and a visual map showing risk factor distribution developed in QGIS. Results Mapping the prevalence of selected CVD risk factors indicated substantial gender and small area geographic heterogeneity which was masked on aggregate analysis. Patterns and clustering were observed for hypertension, physical inactivity, smoking, alcohol consumption and risk factor combination. Prevalence of unhealthy diet was very high across all parishes with no significant observable differences across areas. Conclusion Modifiable cardiovascular risk factors are common in this low-income context. Moreover, across small area geographic setting, it appears significant differences in distribution of risk factors exist. These differences suggest that underlying drivers such as sociocultural, environmental and economic determinants may be promoting or inhibiting the observed risk factor prevalences which should be further explored. In addition, the differences emphasize the value of small geographical area mapping and analysis to inform more targeted risk reduction interventions

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified