Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events

Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors

Functional limit theorems for random regular graphs

Consider d uniformly random permutation matrices on n labels. Consider the sum of these matrices along with their transposes. The total can be interpreted as the adjacency matrix of a random regular graph of degree 2d on n vertices. We consider limit theorems for various combinatorial and analytical properties of this graph (or the matrix) as n grows to infinity, either when d is kept fixed or grows slowly with n. In a suitable weak convergence framework, we prove that the (finite but growing in length) sequences of the number of short cycles and of cyclically non-backtracking walks converge to distributional limits. We estimate the total variation distance from the limit using Stein's method. As an application of these results we derive limits of linear functionals of the eigenvalues of the adjacency matrix. A key step in this latter derivation is an extension of the Kahn-Szemer\'edi argument for estimating the second largest eigenvalue for all values of d and n.Comment: Added Remark 27. 39 pages. To appear in Probability Theory and Related Field

Ordinary Percolation with Discontinuous Transitions

Percolation on a one-dimensional lattice and fractals such as the Sierpinski gasket is typically considered to be trivial because they percolate only at full bond density. By dressing up such lattices with small-world bonds, a novel percolation transition with explosive cluster growth can emerge at a nontrivial critical point. There, the usual order parameter, describing the probability of any node to be part of the largest cluster, jumps instantly to a finite value. Here, we provide a simple example of this transition in form of a small-world network consisting of a one-dimensional lattice combined with a hierarchy of long-range bonds that reveals many features of the transition in a mathematically rigorous manner.Comment: RevTex, 5 pages, 4 eps-figs, and Mathematica Notebook as Supplement included. Final version, with several corrections and improvements. For related work, see http://www.physics.emory.edu/faculty/boettcher

Effect of parasympathetic stimulation on brain activity during appraisal of fearful expressions

Autonomic nervous system activity is an important component of human emotion. Mental processes influence bodily physiology, which in turn feeds back to influence thoughts and feelings. Afferent cardiovascular signals from arterial baroreceptors in the carotid sinuses are processed within the brain and contribute to this two-way communication with the body. These carotid baroreceptors can be stimulated non-invasively by externally applying focal negative pressure bilaterally to the neck. In an experiment combining functional neuroimaging (fMRI) with carotid stimulation in healthy participants, we tested the hypothesis that manipulating afferent cardiovascular signals alters the central processing of emotional information (fearful and neutral facial expressions). Carotid stimulation, compared with sham stimulation, broadly attenuated activity across cortical and brainstem regions. Modulation of emotional processing was apparent as a significant expression-by-stimulation interaction within left amygdala, where responses during appraisal of fearful faces were selectively reduced by carotid stimulation. Moreover, activity reductions within insula, amygdala, and hippocampus correlated with the degree of stimulation-evoked change in the explicit emotional ratings of fearful faces. Across participants, individual differences in autonomic state (heart rate variability, a proxy measure of autonomic balance toward parasympathetic activity) predicted the extent to which carotid stimulation influenced neural (amygdala) responses during appraisal and subjective rating of fearful faces. Together our results provide mechanistic insight into the visceral component of emotion by identifying the neural substrates mediating cardiovascular influences on the processing of fear signals, potentially implicating central baroreflex mechanisms for anxiolytic treatment targets

Dietary soy and meat proteins induce distinct physiological and gene expression changes in rats

This study reports on a comprehensive comparison of the effects of soy and meat proteins given at the recommended level on physiological markers of metabolic syndrome and the hepatic transcriptome. Male rats were fed semi-synthetic diets for 1 wk that differed only regarding protein source, with casein serving as reference. Body weight gain and adipose tissue mass were significantly reduced by soy but not meat proteins. The insulin resistance index was improved by soy, and to a lesser extent by meat proteins. Liver triacylglycerol contents were reduced by both protein sources, which coincided with increased plasma triacylglycerol concentrations. Both soy and meat proteins changed plasma amino acid patterns. The expression of 1571 and 1369 genes were altered by soy and meat proteins respectively. Functional classification revealed that lipid, energy and amino acid metabolic pathways, as well as insulin signaling pathways were regulated differently by soy and meat proteins. Several transcriptional regulators, including NFE2L2, ATF4, Srebf1 and Rictor were identified as potential key upstream regulators. These results suggest that soy and meat proteins induce distinct physiological and gene expression responses in rats and provide novel evidence and suggestions for the health effects of different protein sources in human diets

Why are we not flooded by involuntary thoughts about the past and future? Testing the cognitive inhibition dependency hypothesis

© The Author(s) 2018In everyday life, involuntary thoughts about future plans and events occur as often as involuntary thoughts about the past. However, compared to involuntary autobiographical memories (IAMs), such episodic involuntary future thoughts (IFTs) have become a focus of study only recently. The aim of the present investigation was to examine why we are not constantly flooded by IFTs and IAMs given that they are often triggered by incidental cues while performing undemanding activities. One possibility is that activated thoughts are suppressed by the inhibitory control mechanism, and therefore depleting inhibitory control should enhance the frequency of both IFTs and IAMs. We report an experiment with a between-subjects design, in which participants in the depleted inhibition condition performed a 60-min high-conflict Stroop task before completing a laboratory vigilance task measuring the frequency of IFTs and IAMs. Participants in the intact inhibition condition performed a version of the Stroop task that did not deplete inhibitory control. To control for physical and mental fatigue resulting from performing the 60-min Stroop tasks in experimental conditions, participants in the control condition completed only the vigilance task. Contrary to predictions, the number of IFTs and IAMs reported during the vigilance task, using the probe-caught method, did not differ across conditions. However, manipulation checks showed that participants’ inhibitory resources were reduced in the depleted inhibition condition, and participants were more tired in the experimental than in the control conditions. These initial findings suggest that neither inhibitory control nor physical and mental fatigue affect the frequency of IFTs and IAMs.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Risk perceptions starting to shift? U.S. citizens are forming opinions about nanotechnology

This article presents early results from an opinion formation study based on a 76-member panel of U.S. citizens, with comparison data from a group of 177 nanotechnology experts. While initially similar to the expert group in terms of their perceptions of the risks, benefits, and need for regulation characterizing several forms of nanotechnology, the first follow-up survey indicates that the panel is beginning to diverge from the experts, particularly with respect to perceptions of the levels of various “societal” risks that nanotechnology might present. The data suggest that responding to public concerns may involve more than attention to physical risks in areas such as health and environment; concerns about other forms of risk actually appear more salient

Conscientiousness, Career Success, and Longevity: A Lifespan Analysis

Markers of executive functioning, such as prudent planning for the future and impulse control, are related to conscientiousness and may be central to both occupational success and health outcomes. The aim of the study was to examine relations among conscientiousness, career success, and mortality risk across a 65-year period. Using data derived from 693 male participants in the Terman Life Cycle Study, we examined associations among childhood personality, midlife objective career success, and lifelong mortality risk through 2006. Conscientiousness and career success each predicted lower mortality risk (N = 693, relative hazard (rh) = 0.82 [95% confidence interval = 0.74, 0.91] and rh = 0.80 [0.71, 0.91], respectively), with both shared and unique variance. Importantly, childhood personality moderated the success–longevity link; conscientiousness was most relevant for least successful individuals. Conscientiousness and career success predicted longevity, but not in a straightforward manner. Findings highlight the importance of lifespan processes