The fatal trajectory of pulmonary COVID-19 is driven by lobular ischemia and fibrotic remodelling

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is characterized by a heterogeneous clinical presentation, ranging from mild symptoms to severe courses of disease. 9-20% of hospitalized patients with severe lung disease die from COVID-19 and a substantial number of survivors develop long-COVID. Our objective was to provide comprehensive insights into the pathophysiology of severe COVID-19 and to identify liquid biomarkers for disease severity and therapy response. METHODS: We studied a total of 85 lungs (n = 31 COVID autopsy samples; n = 7 influenza A autopsy samples; n = 18 interstitial lung disease explants; n = 24 healthy controls) using the highest resolution Synchrotron radiation-based hierarchical phase-contrast tomography, scanning electron microscopy of microvascular corrosion casts, immunohistochemistry, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry imaging, and analysis of mRNA expression and biological pathways. Plasma samples from all disease groups were used for liquid biomarker determination using ELISA. The anatomic/molecular data were analyzed as a function of patients' hospitalization time. FINDINGS: The observed patchy/mosaic appearance of COVID-19 in conventional lung imaging resulted from microvascular occlusion and secondary lobular ischemia. The length of hospitalization was associated with increased intussusceptive angiogenesis. This was associated with enhanced angiogenic, and fibrotic gene expression demonstrated by molecular profiling and metabolomic analysis. Increased plasma fibrosis markers correlated with their pulmonary tissue transcript levels and predicted disease severity. Plasma analysis confirmed distinct fibrosis biomarkers (TSP2, GDF15, IGFBP7, Pro-C3) that predicted the fatal trajectory in COVID-19. INTERPRETATION: Pulmonary severe COVID-19 is a consequence of secondary lobular microischemia and fibrotic remodelling, resulting in a distinctive form of fibrotic interstitial lung disease that contributes to long-COVID. FUNDING: This project was made possible by a number of funders. The full list can be found within the Declaration of interests / Acknowledgements section at the end of the manuscript

Evaluating Forecasting Methods

Ideally, forecasting methods should be evaluated in the situations for which they will be used. Underlying the evaluation procedure is the need to test methods against reasonable alternatives. Evaluation consists of four steps: testing assumptions, testing data and methods, replicating outputs, and assessing outputs. Most principles for testing forecasting methods are based on commonly accepted methodological procedures, such as to prespecify criteria or to obtain a large sample of forecast errors. However, forecasters often violate such principles, even in academic studies. Some principles might be surprising, such as do not use R-square, do not use Mean Square Error, and do not use the within-sample fit of the model to select the most accurate time-series model. A checklist of 32 principles is provided to help in systematically evaluating forecasting methods

The impact of viral mutations on recognition by SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells.

We identify amino acid variants within dominant SARS-CoV-2 T cell epitopes by interrogating global sequence data. Several variants within nucleocapsid and ORF3a epitopes have arisen independently in multiple lineages and result in loss of recognition by epitope-specific T cells assessed by IFN-γ and cytotoxic killing assays. Complete loss of T cell responsiveness was seen due to Q213K in the A∗01:01-restricted CD8+ ORF3a epitope FTSDYYQLY207-215; due to P13L, P13S, and P13T in the B∗27:05-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope QRNAPRITF9-17; and due to T362I and P365S in the A∗03:01/A∗11:01-restricted CD8+ nucleocapsid epitope KTFPPTEPK361-369. CD8+ T cell lines unable to recognize variant epitopes have diverse T cell receptor repertoires. These data demonstrate the potential for T cell evasion and highlight the need for ongoing surveillance for variants capable of escaping T cell as well as humoral immunity.This work is supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC); Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS) Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS), China; National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and UK Researchand Innovation (UKRI)/NIHR through the UK Coro-navirus Immunology Consortium (UK-CIC). Sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 samples and collation of data wasundertaken by the COG-UK CONSORTIUM. COG-UK is supported by funding from the Medical ResearchCouncil (MRC) part of UK Research & Innovation (UKRI),the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR),and Genome Research Limited, operating as the Wellcome Sanger Institute. T.I.d.S. is supported by a Well-come Trust Intermediate Clinical Fellowship (110058/Z/15/Z). L.T. is supported by the Wellcome Trust(grant number 205228/Z/16/Z) and by theUniversity of Liverpool Centre for Excellence in Infectious DiseaseResearch (CEIDR). S.D. is funded by an NIHR GlobalResearch Professorship (NIHR300791). L.T. and S.C.M.are also supported by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Medical Countermeasures Initiative contract75F40120C00085 and the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) inEmerging and Zoonotic Infections (NIHR200907) at University of Liverpool inpartnership with Public HealthEngland (PHE), in collaboration with Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the University of Oxford.L.T. is based at the University of Liverpool. M.D.P. is funded by the NIHR Sheffield Biomedical ResearchCentre (BRC – IS-BRC-1215-20017). ISARIC4C is supported by the MRC (grant no MC_PC_19059). J.C.K.is a Wellcome Investigator (WT204969/Z/16/Z) and supported by NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centreand CIFMS. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or MRC

Prevention of acute kidney injury and protection of renal function in the intensive care unit

Acute renal failure on the intensive care unit is associated with significant mortality and morbidity. To determine recommendations for the prevention of acute kidney injury (AKI), focusing on the role of potential preventative maneuvers including volume expansion, diuretics, use of inotropes, vasopressors/vasodilators, hormonal interventions, nutrition, and extracorporeal techniques. A systematic search of the literature was performed for studies using these potential protective agents in adult patients at risk for acute renal failure/kidney injury between 1966 and 2009. The following clinical conditions were considered: major surgery, critical illness, sepsis, shock, and use of potentially nephrotoxic drugs and radiocontrast media. Where possible the following endpoints were extracted: creatinine clearance, glomerular filtration rate, increase in serum creatinine, urine output, and markers of tubular injury. Clinical endpoints included the need for renal replacement therapy, length of stay, and mortality. Studies are graded according to the international Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) group system Several measures are recommended, though none carries grade 1A. We recommend prompt resuscitation of the circulation with special attention to providing adequate hydration whilst avoiding high-molecular-weight hydroxy-ethyl starch (HES) preparations, maintaining adequate blood pressure using vasopressors in vasodilatory shock. We suggest using vasopressors in vasodilatory hypotension, specific vasodilators under strict hemodynamic control, sodium bicarbonate for emergency procedures administering contrast media, and periprocedural hemofiltration in severe chronic renal insufficiency undergoing coronary intervention