How the economics profession got it wrong on Brexit

Some of the most widely cited predictions of the economic effects of Brexit rely on flawed analysis, particularly of the performance of the UK after it joined the EEC, and on the link between trade and productivity, write Ken Coutts (left), Graham Gudgin (University of Cambridge) and Jordan Buchanan (right) (Ulster University Economic Policy Centre). In order to restore public confidence in economic forecasting for major policy issues, economists need to use more relevant analyses, based on a wider range of evidence

Phylogeography of Japanese encephalitis virus:genotype is associated with climate

The circulation of vector-borne zoonotic viruses is largely determined by the overlap in the geographical distributions of virus-competent vectors and reservoir hosts. What is less clear are the factors influencing the distribution of virus-specific lineages. Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is the most important etiologic agent of epidemic encephalitis worldwide, and is primarily maintained between vertebrate reservoir hosts (avian and swine) and culicine mosquitoes. There are five genotypes of JEV: GI-V. In recent years, GI has displaced GIII as the dominant JEV genotype and GV has re-emerged after almost 60 years of undetected virus circulation. JEV is found throughout most of Asia, extending from maritime Siberia in the north to Australia in the south, and as far as Pakistan to the west and Saipan to the east. Transmission of JEV in temperate zones is epidemic with the majority of cases occurring in summer months, while transmission in tropical zones is endemic and occurs year-round at lower rates. To test the hypothesis that viruses circulating in these two geographical zones are genetically distinct, we applied Bayesian phylogeographic, categorical data analysis and phylogeny-trait association test techniques to the largest JEV dataset compiled to date, representing the envelope (E) gene of 487 isolates collected from 12 countries over 75 years. We demonstrated that GIII and the recently emerged GI-b are temperate genotypes likely maintained year-round in northern latitudes, while GI-a and GII are tropical genotypes likely maintained primarily through mosquito-avian and mosquito-swine transmission cycles. This study represents a new paradigm directly linking viral molecular evolution and climate

Characterisation of the pathogenic effects of the in vivo expression of an ALS-linked mutation in D-amino acid oxidase: Phenotype and loss of spinal cord motor neurons

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is the most common adult-onset neuromuscular disorder characterised by selective loss of motor neurons leading to fatal paralysis. Current therapeutic approaches are limited in their effectiveness. Substantial advances in understanding ALS disease mechanisms has come from the identification of pathogenic mutations in dominantly inherited familial ALS (FALS). We previously reported a coding mutation in D-amino acid oxidase (DAOR199W) associated with FALS. DAO metabolises D-serine, an essential co-agonist at the N-Methyl-D-aspartic acid glutamate receptor subtype (NMDAR). Using primary motor neuron cultures or motor neuron cell lines we demonstrated that expression of DAOR199W, promoted the formation of ubiquitinated protein aggregates, activated autophagy and increased apoptosis. The aim of this study was to characterise the effects of DAOR199W in vivo, using transgenic mice overexpressing DAOR199W. Marked abnormal motor features, e.g. kyphosis, were evident in mice expressing DAOR199W, which were associated with a significant loss (19%) of lumbar spinal cord motor neurons, analysed at 14 months. When separated by gender, this effect was greater in females (26%; p< 0.0132). In addition, we crossed the DAOR199W transgenic mouse line with the SOD1G93A mouse model of ALS to determine whether the effects of SOD1G93A were potentiated in the double transgenic line (DAOR199W/SOD1G93A). Although overall survival was not affected, onset of neurological signs was significantly earlier in female double transgenic animals than their female SOD1G93A littermates (125 days vs 131 days, P = 0.0239). In summary, some significant in vivo effects of DAOR199W on motor neuron function (i.e. kyphosis and loss of motor neurons) were detected which were most marked in females and could contribute to the earlier onset of neurological signs in double transgenic females compared to SOD1G93A littermates, highlighting the importance of recognizing gender effects present in animal models of ALS

Elevated CO₂ does not increase eucalypt forest productivity on a low-phosphorus soil

Rising atmospheric CO2 stimulates photosynthesis and productivity of forests, offsetting CO2 emissions. Elevated CO2 experiments in temperate planted forests yielded ~23% increases in productivity over the initial years. Whether similar CO2 stimulation occurs in mature evergreen broadleaved forests on low-phosphorus (P) soils is unknown, largely due to lack of experimental evidence. This knowledge gap creates major uncertainties in future climate projections as a large part of the tropics is P-limited. Here,we increased atmospheric CO2 concentration in a mature broadleaved evergreen eucalypt forest for three years, in the first large-scale experiment on a P-limited site. We show that tree growth and other aboveground productivity components did not significantly increase in response to elevated CO2 in three years, despite a sustained 19% increase in leaf photosynthesis. Moreover, tree growth in ambient CO2 was strongly P-limited and increased by ~35% with added phosphorus. The findings suggest that P availability may potentially constrain CO2-enhanced productivity in P-limited forests; hence, future atmospheric CO2 trajectories may be higher than predicted by some models. As a result, coupled climate-carbon models should incorporate both nitrogen and phosphorus limitations to vegetation productivity in estimating future carbon sinks

Beating the channel capacity limit for linear photonic superdense coding

Dense coding is arguably the protocol that launched the field of quantum communication. Today, however, more than a decade after its initial experimental realization, the channel capacity remains fundamentally limited as conceived for photons using linear elements. Bob can only send to Alice three of four potential messages owing to the impossibility of carrying out the deterministic discrimination of all four Bell states with linear optics, reducing the attainable channel capacity from 2 to log_2 3 \approx 1.585 bits. However, entanglement in an extra degree of freedom enables the complete and deterministic discrimination of all Bell states. Using pairs of photons simultaneously entangled in spin and orbital angular momentum, we demonstrate the quantum advantage of the ancillary entanglement. In particular, we describe a dense-coding experiment with the largest reported channel capacity and, to our knowledge, the first to break the conventional linear-optics threshold. Our encoding is suited for quantum communication without alignment and satellite communication.Comment: Letter: 6 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary Information: 4 pages, 1 figur

Adverse prognostic and predictive significance of low DNA-dependent protein kinase catalytic subunit (DNA-PKcs) expression in early-stage breast cancers

Background: DNA-dependent protein kinase catalytic subunit (DNA-PKcs), a serine threonine kinase belonging to the PIKK family (phosphoinositide 3-kinase-like-family of protein kinase), is a critical component of the non-homologous end joining (NHEJ) pathway required for the repair of DNA double strand breaks. DNA-PKcs may be involved in breast cancer pathogenesis. Methods: We evaluated clinicopathological significance of DNA-PKcs protein expression in 1161 tumours and DNA-PKcs mRNA expression in 1950 tumours. We correlated DNA-PKcs to other markers of aggressive phenotypes, DNA repair, apoptosis and cell cycle regulation. Results: Low DNA-PKcs protein expression was associated with higher tumour grade, higher mitotic index, tumour de-differentiation and tumour type (ps<0.05). Absence of BRCA1, low XRCC1/SMUG1/APE1/Polβ were also more likely in low DNA-PKcs expressing tumours (ps<0.05). Low DNA-PKcs protein expression was significantly associated with worse breast cancer specific survival (BCCS) in univariate and multivariate analysis (ps<0.01). At the mRNA level, low DNA-PKcs was associated with PAM50.Her2 and PAM50.LumA molecular phenotypes (ps<0.01) and poor BCSS. In patients with ER positive tumours who received endocrine therapy, low DNA-PKcs (protein and mRNA) was associated with poor survival. In ER negative patients, low DNA-PKcs mRNA remains significantly associated with adverse outcome. Conclusions: Our study suggests that low DNA-PKcs expression may have prognostic and predictive significance in breast cancers

The effectiveness and satisfaction of web-based physiotherapy in people with spinal cord injury: a pilot randomised controlled trial

Study Design: Pilot randomised controlled trial. Objectives: The aims of this study were to evaluate the effectiveness and participant satisfaction of web-based physiotherapy for people with Spinal Cord Injury (SCI). Setting: Community patients of a national spinal injury unit in a university teaching hospital, Scotland, UK. Methods: Twenty-four participants were recruited and randomised to receive eight weeks of web-based physiotherapy (intervention), twice per week, or usual care (control). Individual exercise programmes were prescribed based upon participant’s abilities. The intervention was delivered via a website (www.webbasedphysio.com) and monitored and progressed remotely by the physiotherapist. Results: Participants logged on to the website an average of 1.4±0.8 times per week. Between-group differences, although not significant were more pronounced for the 6 minute walk test. Participants were positive about using web-based physiotherapy and stated they would be happy to use it again and would recommend it to others. Overall it was rated as either good or excellent. Conclusions: Web-based physiotherapy was feasible and acceptable for people with SCI. Participants achieved good compliance with the intervention, rated the programme highly and beneficial for health and well-being at various states post injury. The results of this study warrant further work with a more homogenous sample

Evolutionary relationships between Rhynchosporium lolii sp. nov. and other Rhynchosporium species on grass.

Copyright: 2013 King et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are creditedThe fungal genus Rhynchosporium (causative agent of leaf blotch) contains several host-specialised species, including R. commune (colonising barley and brome-grass), R. agropyri (couch-grass), R. secalis (rye and triticale) and the more distantly related R. orthosporum (cocksfoot). This study used molecular fingerprinting, multilocus DNA sequence data, conidial morphology, host range tests and scanning electron microscopy to investigate the relationship between Rhynchosporium species on ryegrasses, both economically important forage grasses and common wild grasses in many cereal growing areas, and other plant species. Two different types of Rhynchosporium were found on ryegrasses in the UK. Firstly, there were isolates of R. commune that were pathogenic to both barley and Italian ryegrass. Secondly, there were isolates of a new species, here named R. lolii, that were pathogenic only to ryegrass species. R. lolii was most closely related to R. orthosporum, but exhibited clear molecular, morphological and host range differences. The species was estimated to have diverged from R. orthosporum ca. 5735 years before the present. The colonisation strategy of all of the different Rhynchosporium species involved extensive hyphal growth in the sub-cuticular regions of the leaves. Finally, new species-specific PCR diagnostic tests were developed that could distinguish between these five closely related Rhynchosporium species.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Improving Phrap-Based Assembly of the Rat Using “Reliable” Overlaps

The assembly methods used for whole-genome shotgun (WGS) data have a major impact on the quality of resulting draft genomes. We present a novel algorithm to generate a set of “reliable” overlaps based on identifying repeat k-mers. To demonstrate the benefits of using reliable overlaps, we have created a version of the Phrap assembly program that uses only overlaps from a specific list. We call this version PhrapUMD. Integrating PhrapUMD and our “reliable-overlap” algorithm with the Baylor College of Medicine assembler, Atlas, we assemble the BACs from the Rattus norvegicus genome project. Starting with the same data as the Nov. 2002 Atlas assembly, we compare our results and the Atlas assembly to the 4.3 Mb of rat sequence in the 21 BACs that have been finished. Our version of the draft assembly of the 21 BACs increases the coverage of finished sequence from 93.4% to 96.3%, while simultaneously reducing the base error rate from 4.5 to 1.1 errors per 10,000 bases. There are a number of ways of assessing the relative merits of assemblies when the finished sequence is available. If one views the overall quality of an assembly as proportional to the inverse of the product of the error rate and sequence missed, then the assembly presented here is seven times better. The UMD Overlapper with options for reliable overlaps is available from the authors at http://www.genome.umd.edu. We also provide the changes to the Phrap source code enabling it to use only the reliable overlaps

Enhanced cosmic-ray flux toward zeta Persei inferred from laboratory study of H3+ - e- recombination rate

The H3+ molecular ion plays a fundamental role in interstellar chemistry, as it initiates a network of chemical reactions that produce many interstellar molecules. In dense clouds, the H3+ abundance is understood using a simple chemical model, from which observations of H3+ yield valuable estimates of cloud path length, density, and temperature. On the other hand, observations of diffuse clouds have suggested that H3+ is considerably more abundant than expected from the chemical models. However, diffuse cloud models have been hampered by the uncertain values of three key parameters: the rate of H3+ destruction by electrons, the electron fraction, and the cosmic-ray ionisation rate. Here we report a direct experimental measurement of the H3+ destruction rate under nearly interstellar conditions. We also report the observation of H3+ in a diffuse cloud (towards zeta Persei) where the electron fraction is already known. Taken together, these results allow us to derive the value of the third uncertain model parameter: we find that the cosmic-ray ionisation rate in this sightline is forty times faster than previously assumed. If such a high cosmic-ray flux is indeed ubiquitous in diffuse clouds, the discrepancy between chemical models and the previous observations of H3+ can be resolved.Comment: 6 pages, Nature, in pres