Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Swimming with Predators and Pesticides: How Environmental Stressors Affect the Thermal Physiology of Tadpoles

To forecast biological responses to changing environments, we need to understand how a species’s physiology varies through space and time and assess how changes in physiological function due to environmental changes may interact with phenotypic changes caused by other types of environmental variation. Amphibian larvae are well known for expressing environmentally induced phenotypes, but relatively little is known about how these responses might interact with changing temperatures and their thermal physiology. To address this question, we studied the thermal physiology of grey treefrog tadpoles (Hyla versicolor) by determining whether exposures to predator cues and an herbicide (Roundup) can alter their critical maximum temperature (CTmax) and their swimming speed across a range of temperatures, which provides estimates of optimal temperature (Topt) for swimming speed and the shape of the thermal performance curve (TPC). We discovered that predator cues induced a 0.4uC higher CTmax value, whereas the herbicide had no effect. Tadpoles exposed to predator cues or the herbicide swam faster than control tadpoles and the increase in burst speed was higher near Topt. In regard to the shape of the TPC, exposure to predator cues increased Topt by 1.5uC, while exposure to the herbicide marginally lowered Topt by 0.4uC. Combining predator cues and the herbicide produced an intermediate Topt that was 0.5uC higher than the control. To our knowledge this is the first study to demonstrate a predator altering the thermal physiology of amphibian larvae (prey) by increasing CTmax, increasing the optimum temperature, and producing changes in the thermal performance curves. Furthermore, these plastic responses of CTmax and TPC to different inducing environments should be considered when forecasting biological responses to global warming.Peer reviewe

Basal ganglia dysfunction in OCD: subthalamic neuronal activity correlates with symptoms severity and predicts high-frequency stimulation efficacy

Functional and connectivity changes in corticostriatal systems have been reported in the brains of patients with obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD); however, the relationship between basal ganglia activity and OCD severity has never been adequately established. We recently showed that deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus (STN), a central basal ganglia nucleus, improves OCD. Here, single-unit subthalamic neuronal activity was analysed in 12 OCD patients, in relation to the severity of obsessions and compulsions and response to STN stimulation, and compared with that obtained in 12 patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). STN neurons in OCD patients had lower discharge frequency than those in PD patients, with a similar proportion of burst-type activity (69 vs 67%). Oscillatory activity was present in 46 and 68% of neurons in OCD and PD patients, respectively, predominantly in the low-frequency band (1–8 Hz). In OCD patients, the bursty and oscillatory subthalamic neuronal activity was mainly located in the associative–limbic part. Both OCD severity and clinical improvement following STN stimulation were related to the STN neuronal activity. In patients with the most severe OCD, STN neurons exhibited bursts with shorter duration and interburst interval, but higher intraburst frequency, and more oscillations in the low-frequency bands. In patients with best clinical outcome with STN stimulation, STN neurons displayed higher mean discharge, burst and intraburst frequencies, and lower interburst interval. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis of a dysfunction in the associative–limbic subdivision of the basal ganglia circuitry in OCD's pathophysiology

Understanding Plant-Microbe Interactions for Phytoremediation of Petroleum-Polluted Soil

Plant-microbe interactions are considered to be important processes determining the efficiency of phytoremediation of petroleum pollution, however relatively little is known about how these interactions are influenced by petroleum pollution. In this experimental study using a microcosm approach, we examined how plant ecophysiological traits, soil nutrients and microbial activities were influenced by petroleum pollution in Phragmites australis, a phytoremediating species. Generally, petroleum pollution reduced plant performance, especially at early stages of plant growth. Petroleum had negative effects on the net accumulation of inorganic nitrogen from its organic forms (net nitrogen mineralization (NNM)) most likely by decreasing the inorganic nitrogen available to the plants in petroleum-polluted soils. However, abundant dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) was found in petroleum-polluted soil. In order to overcome initial deficiency of inorganic nitrogen, plants by dint of high colonization of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi might absorb some DON for their growth in petroleum-polluted soils. In addition, through using a real-time polymerase chain reaction method, we quantified hydrocarbon-degrading bacterial traits based on their catabolic genes (i.e. alkB (alkane monooxygenase), nah (naphthalene dioxygenase) and tol (xylene monooxygenase) genes). This enumeration of target genes suggests that different hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria experienced different dynamic changes during phytoremediation and a greater abundance of alkB was detected during vegetative growth stages. Because phytoremediation of different components of petroleum is performed by different hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria, plants’ ability of phytoremediating different components might therefore vary during the plant life cycle. Phytoremediation might be most effective during the vegetative growth stages as greater abundances of hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria containing alkB and tol genes were observed at these stages. The information provided by this study enhances our understanding of the effects of petroleum pollution on plant-microbe interactions and the roles of these interactions in the phytoremediation of petroleum-polluted soil

The Germinal Center Kinase GCK-1 Is a Negative Regulator of MAP Kinase Activation and Apoptosis in the C. elegans Germline

The germinal center kinases (GCK) constitute a large, highly conserved family of proteins that has been implicated in a wide variety of cellular processes including cell growth and proliferation, polarity, migration, and stress responses. Although diverse, these functions have been attributed to an evolutionarily conserved role for GCKs in the activation of ERK, JNK, and p38 MAP kinase pathways. In addition, multiple GCKs from different species promote apoptotic cell death. In contrast to these paradigms, we found that a C. elegans GCK, GCK-1, functions to inhibit MAP kinase activation and apoptosis in the C. elegans germline. In the absence of GCK-1, a specific MAP kinase isoform is ectopically activated and oocytes undergo abnormal development. Moreover, GCK-1- deficient animals display a significant increase in germ cell death. Our results suggest that individual germinal center kinases act in mechanistically distinct ways and that these functions are likely to depend on organ- and developmental-specific contexts

Behavioural and Developmental Interventions for Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Clinical Systematic Review

Background: Much controversy exists regarding the clinical efficacy of behavioural and developmental interventions for improving the core symptoms of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). We conducted a systematic review to summarize the evidence on the effectiveness of behavioural and developmental interventions for ASD. Methods and Findings: Comprehensive searches were conducted in 22 electronic databases through May 2007. Further information was obtained through hand searching journals, searching reference lists, databases of theses and dissertations, and contacting experts in the field. Experimental and observational analytic studies were included if they were written in English and reported the efficacy of any behavioural or developmental intervention for individuals with ASD. Two independent reviewers made the final study selection, extracted data, and reached consensus on study quality. Results were summarized descriptively and, where possible, meta-analyses of the study results were conducted. One-hundred-and-one studies at predominantly high risk of bias that reported inconsistent results across various interventions were included in the review. Meta-analyses of three controlled clinical trials showed that Lovaas treatment was superior to special education on measures of adaptive behaviour, communication and interaction, comprehensive language, daily living skills, expressive language, overall intellectual functioning and socialization. High-intensity Lovaas was superior to low-intensity Lovaas on measures of intellectual functioning in two retrospective cohort studies. Pooling the results of two randomized controlle

Pediatric T- and NK-cell lymphomas: new biologic insights and treatment strategies

T- and natural killer (NK)-cell lymphomas are challenging childhood neoplasms. These cancers have varying presentations, vast molecular heterogeneity, and several are quite unusual in the West, creating diagnostic challenges. Over 20 distinct T- and NK-cell neoplasms are recognized by the 2008 World Health Organization classification, demonstrating the diversity and potential complexity of these cases. In pediatric populations, selection of optimal therapy poses an additional quandary, as most of these malignancies have not been studied in large randomized clinical trials. Despite their rarity, exciting molecular discoveries are yielding insights into these clinicopathologic entities, improving the accuracy of our diagnoses of these cancers, and expanding our ability to effectively treat them, including the use of new targeted therapies. Here, we summarize this fascinating group of lymphomas, with particular attention to the three most common subtypes: T-lymphoblastic lymphoma, anaplastic large cell lymphoma, and peripheral T-cell lymphoma-not otherwise specified. We highlight recent findings regarding their molecular etiologies, new biologic markers, and cutting-edge therapeutic strategies applied to this intriguing class of neoplasms