Mixture models for distance sampling detection functions

Funding: EPSRC DTGWe present a new class of models for the detection function in distance sampling surveys of wildlife populations, based on finite mixtures of simple parametric key functions such as the half-normal. The models share many of the features of the widely-used “key function plus series adjustment” (K+A) formulation: they are flexible, produce plausible shapes with a small number of parameters, allow incorporation of covariates in addition to distance and can be fitted using maximum likelihood. One important advantage over the K+A approach is that the mixtures are automatically monotonic non-increasing and non-negative, so constrained optimization is not required to ensure distance sampling assumptions are honoured. We compare the mixture formulation to the K+A approach using simulations to evaluate its applicability in a wide set of challenging situations. We also re-analyze four previously problematic real-world case studies. We find mixtures outperform K+A methods in many cases, particularly spiked line transect data (i.e., where detectability drops rapidly at small distances) and larger sample sizes. We recommend that current standard model selection methods for distance sampling detection functions are extended to include mixture models in the candidate set.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Public health messaging during extreme smoke events: are we hitting the mark?

Background: Emergency services working to protect communities from harm duringwildfires aim to provide regular public advisories on the hazards from fire and smoke.However, there are few studies evaluating the success of public health communicationsregarding the management of smoke exposure. We explored the responses tosmoke-related health advisories of people living in a severely smoke-affected regionduring extensive wildfires in Tasmania, Australia early in 2019. We also evaluatedthe acceptability of portable high efficiency particle air (HEPA) cleaners used in studyparticipant’s homes during the smoky period.Methods: We conducted semi-structured interviews with 24 households in the HuonValley region of Tasmania following a severe smoke episode. These households wereinitially recruited into a HEPA cleaner study. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, andanalyzed for common themes using an inductive framework approach.Results: Public health messaging during the 2019 wildfire event in Tasmania waswidely shared and understood, with social media playing a central role. However,some participants expressed concerns about the timeliness and effectiveness ofthe recommended interventions, and some would have appreciated more detailedinformation about the health risks from smoke. Public messages and actions to protecthouseholds from wildfire threat were, at times, contradictory or dominated in coverageover the smoke messaging, and many participants were conflicted with the multiplepublic messages and action relating to the more serious perceived threat from the fire.Conclusions: Public messaging about smoke and health should continue to usemultiple avenues of communication, with a focus on simple messages provided throughsocial media. Messaging about the smoke hazard should be available from a trustedcentral source regarding all aspects of the wildfire emergency, with links to more detailedinformation including local air quality data alongside interpretation of the associatedhealth risks

Factors that influence the intra-articular rupture pattern of the ACL graft following single-bundle reconstruction

The number of revision anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) surgeries performed annually continues to rise. The purpose of this study was to determine the most common rupture pattern in ACL revision cases after previous single-bundle reconstruction. The second aim was to determine the relationship between rupture pattern and patient-specific factors (age, gender, time between the initial ACL reconstruction and re-injury, and etiology/mechanism of failure) and surgical factors (graft type, tunnel angle). This was a cohort study of 60 patients that underwent revision ACL surgery after previous single-bundle ACL reconstruction. Three sports medicine-trained orthopedic surgeons reviewed the arthroscopic videos and determined the rupture pattern of the grafts. The rupture pattern was then correlated to the above-mentioned factors. The inter-observer agreement had a kappa of 0.7. The most common rupture pattern after previous single-bundle ACL reconstruction is elongation of the graft. This is different from the native ACL, which displays more proximal ruptures. With the use of autograft tissue and after a longer period of time, the rupture pattern in revision surgery is more similar to that of the native ACL. The most common rupture pattern after previous single-bundle reconstruction was elongation of the graft. Factors that influenced the rupture pattern were months between ACL reconstruction and re-injury and graft type. Cohort study, Level I

Abundance and distribution of sperm whales in the Canary Islands : can sperm whales in the Archipelago sustain the current level of ship-strike mortalities?

Funding was provided through an agreement between the Canary Islands Government and the Spanish Ministries of the Environment and Defence. Additional survey effort on the Amanay, Banquete and Concepción seamounts was funded by the Fundación Biodiversidad-MAGRAMA via the LIFE-INDEMARES project.Sperm whales are present in the Canary Islands year-round, suggesting that the archipelago is an important area for this species in the North Atlantic. However, the area experiences one of the highest reported rates of sperm whale ship-strike in the world. Here we investigate if the number of sperm whales found in the archipelago can sustain the current rate of ship-strike mortality. The results of this study may also have implications for offshore areas where concentrations of sperm whales may coincide with high densities of ship traffic, but where ship-strikes may be undocumented. The absolute abundance of sperm whales in an area of 52933 km2, covering the territorial waters of the Canary Islands, was estimated from 2668 km of acoustic line-transect survey using Distance sampling analysis. Data on sperm whale diving and acoustic behaviour, obtained from bio-logging, were used to calculate g(0) = 0.92, this is less than one because of occasional extended periods when whales do not echolocate. This resulted in an absolute abundance estimate of 224 sperm whales (95% log-normal CI 120-418) within the survey area. The recruitment capability of this number of whales, some 2.5 whales per year, is likely to be exceeded by the current ship-strike mortality rate. Furthermore, we found areas of higher whale density within the archipelago, many coincident with those previously described, suggesting that these are important habitats for females and immature animals inhabiting the archipelago. Some of these areas are crossed by active shipping lanes increasing the risk of ship-strikes. Given the philopatry in female sperm whales, replacement of impacted whales might be limited. Therefore, the application of mitigation measures to reduce the ship-strike mortality rate seems essential for the conservation of sperm whales in the Canary Islands.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Spatial Models of Abundance and Habitat Preferences of Commerson’s and Peale’s Dolphin in Southern Patagonian Waters

Funding: This research was possible with the support of the Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET). Funding for travel to and accommodation for NAD in Aberdeen, Scotland was provided by CONICET and Cetacean Society International. The work of NAD was part of a postdoctoral fellowship funded by CONICET. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The effects of β-glucan on human immune and cancer cells

Non-prescriptional use of medicinal herbs among cancer patients is common around the world. The alleged anti-cancer effects of most herbal extracts are mainly based on studies derived from in vitro or in vivo animal experiments. The current information suggests that these herbal extracts exert their biological effect either through cytotoxic or immunomodulatory mechanisms. One of the active compounds responsible for the immune effects of herbal products is in the form of complex polysaccharides known as β-glucans. β-glucans are ubiquitously found in both bacterial or fungal cell walls and have been implicated in the initiation of anti-microbial immune response. Based on in vitro studies, β-glucans act on several immune receptors including Dectin-1, complement receptor (CR3) and TLR-2/6 and trigger a group of immune cells including macrophages, neutrophils, monocytes, natural killer cells and dendritic cells. As a consequence, both innate and adaptive response can be modulated by β-glucans and they can also enhance opsonic and non-opsonic phagocytosis. In animal studies, after oral administration, the specific backbone 1→3 linear β-glycosidic chain of β-glucans cannot be digested. Most β-glucans enter the proximal small intestine and some are captured by the macrophages. They are internalized and fragmented within the cells, then transported by the macrophages to the marrow and endothelial reticular system. The small β-glucans fragments are eventually released by the macrophages and taken up by other immune cells leading to various immune responses. However, β-glucans of different sizes and branching patterns may have significantly variable immune potency. Careful selection of appropriate β-glucans is essential if we wish to investigate the effects of β-glucans clinically. So far, no good quality clinical trial data is available on assessing the effectiveness of purified β-glucans among cancer patients. Future effort should direct at performing well-designed clinical trials to verify the actual clinical efficacy of β-glucans or β-glucans containing compounds

Worldwide comparison of survival from childhood leukaemia for 1995–2009, by subtype, age, and sex (CONCORD-2): a population-based study of individual data for 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries

Background Global inequalities in access to health care are reflected in differences in cancer survival. The CONCORD programme was designed to assess worldwide differences and trends in population-based cancer survival. In this population-based study, we aimed to estimate survival inequalities globally for several subtypes of childhood leukaemia. Methods Cancer registries participating in CONCORD were asked to submit tumour registrations for all children aged 0-14 years who were diagnosed with leukaemia between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2009, and followed up until Dec 31, 2009. Haematological malignancies were defined by morphology codes in the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, third revision. We excluded data from registries from which the data were judged to be less reliable, or included only lymphomas, and data from countries in which data for fewer than ten children were available for analysis. We also excluded records because of a missing date of birth, diagnosis, or last known vital status. We estimated 5-year net survival (ie, the probability of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis, after controlling for deaths from other causes [background mortality]) for children by calendar period of diagnosis (1995-99, 2000-04, and 2005-09), sex, and age at diagnosis (< 1, 1-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, inclusive) using appropriate life tables. We estimated age-standardised net survival for international comparison of survival trends for precursor-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Findings We analysed data from 89 828 children from 198 registries in 53 countries. During 1995-99, 5-year agestandardised net survival for all lymphoid leukaemias combined ranged from 10.6% (95% CI 3.1-18.2) in the Chinese registries to 86.8% (81.6-92.0) in Austria. International differences in 5-year survival for childhood leukaemia were still large as recently as 2005-09, when age-standardised survival for lymphoid leukaemias ranged from 52.4% (95% CI 42.8-61.9) in Cali, Colombia, to 91.6% (89.5-93.6) in the German registries, and for AML ranged from 33.3% (18.9-47.7) in Bulgaria to 78.2% (72.0-84.3) in German registries. Survival from precursor-cell ALL was very close to that of all lymphoid leukaemias combined, with similar variation. In most countries, survival from AML improved more than survival from ALL between 2000-04 and 2005-09. Survival for each type of leukaemia varied markedly with age: survival was highest for children aged 1-4 and 5-9 years, and lowest for infants (younger than 1 year). There was no systematic difference in survival between boys and girls. Interpretation Global inequalities in survival from childhood leukaemia have narrowed with time but remain very wide for both ALL and AML. These results provide useful information for health policy makers on the effectiveness of health-care systems and for cancer policy makers to reduce inequalities in childhood survival

Primary biliary cirrhosis

Primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) is an immune-mediated chronic cholestatic liver disease with a slowly progressive course. Without treatment, most patients eventually develop fibrosis and cirrhosis of the liver and may need liver transplantation in the late stage of disease. PBC primarily affects women (female preponderance 9–10:1) with a prevalence of up to 1 in 1,000 women over 40 years of age. Common symptoms of the disease are fatigue and pruritus, but most patients are asymptomatic at first presentation. The diagnosis is based on sustained elevation of serum markers of cholestasis, i.e., alkaline phosphatase and gamma-glutamyl transferase, and the presence of serum antimitochondrial antibodies directed against the E2 subunit of the pyruvate dehydrogenase complex. Histologically, PBC is characterized by florid bile duct lesions with damage to biliary epithelial cells, an often dense portal inflammatory infiltrate and progressive loss of small intrahepatic bile ducts. Although the insight into pathogenetic aspects of PBC has grown enormously during the recent decade and numerous genetic, environmental, and infectious factors have been disclosed which may contribute to the development of PBC, the precise pathogenesis remains enigmatic. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is currently the only FDA-approved medical treatment for PBC. When administered at adequate doses of 13–15 mg/kg/day, up to two out of three patients with PBC may have a normal life expectancy without additional therapeutic measures. The mode of action of UDCA is still under discussion, but stimulation of impaired hepatocellular and cholangiocellular secretion, detoxification of bile, and antiapoptotic effects may represent key mechanisms. One out of three patients does not adequately respond to UDCA therapy and may need additional medical therapy and/or liver transplantation. This review summarizes current knowledge on the clinical, diagnostic, pathogenetic, and therapeutic aspects of PBC

Mid-Holocene pulse of thinning in the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet

Establishing the trajectory of thinning of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) since the last glacial maximum (LGM) is important for addressing questions concerning ice sheet (in)stability and changes in global sea level. Here we present detailed geomorphological and cosmogenic nuclide data from the southern Ellsworth Mountains in the heart of the Weddell Sea embayment that suggest the ice sheet, nourished by increased snowfall until the early Holocene, was close to its LGM thickness at 10 ka. A pulse of rapid thinning caused the ice elevation to fall ~400 m to the present level at 6.5–3.5 ka, and could have contributed 1.4–2 m to global sea-level rise. These results imply that the Weddell Sea sector of the WAIS contributed little to late-glacial pulses in sea-level rise but was involved in mid-Holocene rises. The stepped decline is argued to reflect marine downdraw triggered by grounding line retreat into Hercules Inlet