Export-led or household consumption-led growth in China: An empirical analysis

Abstract. GDP growth dependence on various factors of the country during (1980-2013) 34 years has been estimated. Ordinary Least Squares Technique of regression is applied here. The results are indicative of incidence of devaluation in the Yuan taking real effective and nominal exchange rate. Further, incidence of systematic impact of capital formation on GDP growth is greater than that of the international trade and domestic household consumption expenditure. That signifies the importance of domestic economy in contrast to the general belief of external sector dependence of the Chinese growth.Keywords. Currency devaluation, GDP growth, Regression.JEL. F13, F43, O47, E21

Determinants and cost of production of dates in Pakistan: An analytical study

Abctract. Present study is an attempt to analyse the production determinants and the cost of production of dates using causal approach of Ordinary Least Squares Methods using secondary data. The costs associated with the agriculture production are computed from labour costs, expenses incurring on the pesticides and fertilizers and the cost of seeds and amount of rent when the piece of land is acquired on contract basis. Provision of credit facility to the farmers and growers can play a major role in softening the constraints of the farmers and motivate them to enhance production of dates. Moreover, technical and technological advancement and adoption of the cost saving technology by farmers can also help farmers improve quality and per acre yield of their production. The findings of the study suggest that the employment in agriculture sector is the most important factor affecting production of dates followed by mechanization and technological advancement and third is the credit to the farmers. All coefficients have significance of less than 0.05 with substantially large generalizability power.Keywords. Production, Technology, Credit, Dates, Finance, Growers, Labour, Costs, Fertilizers, Pesticides, Seeds.JEL. D24, J08, Q16, H81

Training and development: Its effects on job performance in the selected companies of UAE

Abstract. One can think that businesses were running without any training in ancient times. Technically, this is not the case. Whether formal or informal, training has always been there in business to carry on its processes. Gradually, it has acquired the shape that can be said a formal one. Firms have started realizing that training and development is a major source of gaining competitive advantage. Most human resource management researchers are of the view that Training and development has got that important role through which organizations can maximize their performances by maximizing performances of their employees. Training and development programs are always there in some way or shape. It may be general or specific. It may be formal or informal and it may be provided by some neutral source or by employers. There is a list of training methods which are in practice in corporate world. For the sake of simplicity, some of them were taken in this study –namely- on-the-job training; mentorship and coaching; vestibule training; instructor-led classroom training; case studies and systematic job rotations and transfers. Another aspect of this study is employee performance. Firm’s performance depends on its employees’ performance. Employee performance has many facets. It may be financial and non financial. It may be quantifiable and qualitative. Furthermore, employee performance contains a number of components in it. In this study, three qualitative components are considered -employee job commitment; employee work knowledge and employee job satisfaction- thinking that these are the main sources of employee performance enhancement.Keywords. Training and development, On-the-job training, Mentorship, Simulator training, Instructor-led classroom training, Case studies, Systematic job rotations and transfers, Employee performance, Job commitment, Job satisfaction, Work knowledge, UAE.JEL. M53, J28

Regional trade and macroeconomic indicators in Pakistan: A cointegration analysis

Abstract. This paper empirically estimates the relationship among selected variables trade, agricultural value-added foreign direct investments, domestic credit to private sectors, official exchange rate and gross capital formation, and population, for the particular Southeast Asian economies including Pakistan, China, Malaysia, India, and South Korea during 1985-2016. Using autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) approach, this study statistically proved the presence of long time association among national credit to private zones, foreign direct investment, population, in addition to gross capital formation for the selected Southeast Asian countries. This study further shows gross capital formation significantly contributes during the long and short period towards trade. Albeit, national credit to private sectors, overseas direct investment, and population maintain a supportive relationship with trade but they are not found to be significant. Furthermore, agricultural value-added and the official exchange rate uphold a non-supportive relationship with the trade. The official exchange rate has a negative but insignificant relationship during the long period however all through the short period has an encouraging and significant association with trade. Whereas agricultural value-added maintains significant negative undesirable relationship through the trade throughout the long and short-run. The strategy implication is that selected countries need to focus on outlays on the addition of fixed assets that consist of machinery, land improvement, structure of roads, railways and drains, stable and profitable industrial buildings, schools, hospitals, universities and work in progress that would help in attracting the FDI in economies to boost the trade.Keywords. Trade, Cointegration, Variables, Growth, Short and long-run.JEL. F35, G10, G11, G15

Ocular tolerability and efficacy of intravitreal and subconjunctival injections of sirolimus in patients with non-infectious uveitis: primary 6-month results of the SAVE Study.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the ocular tolerability and efficacy of sirolimus administered as subconjunctival or intravitreal injections in patients with non-infectious uveitis. Sirolimus as a Therapeutic Approach for Uveitis (SAVE) is a prospective, randomized, open-label, interventional study. Thirty patients were enrolled and randomized in 1:1 ratio to receive either intravitreal injections of 352 μg sirolimus or subconjunctival injections of 1,320 μg at days 0, 60, and 120, with primary endpoint at month 6. RESULTS: At month 6, all subjects with active uveitis at baseline showed reduction in vitreous haze of one or more steps. Forty percent of subjects showed reduction of two steps or more of vitreous haze (four in each group), and 60% showed a reduction of one-step vitreous haze (seven in group 1 and five in group 2). Changes in the inflammatory indices were statistically significant (p \u3c 0.05) in both study groups. Thirty percent of patients gained one or more lines of visual acuity, 20% lost one or more lines, and 50% maintained the same visual acuity. There were no statistically significant differences between the two study groups at month 6. No serious adverse events were found to be related to the study drug. CONCLUSION: Local administration of sirolimus, either intravitreally or subconjunctivally, appears to be safe and tolerable. No drug-related systemic adverse events or serious adverse events were noted. Sirolimus delivered as either an intravitreal or subconjunctival injection has demonstrated bioactivity as an immunomodulatory and corticosteroid-sparing agent in reducing vitreous haze and cells, improving visual acuity, and in decreasing the need for systemic corticosteroids

Lessons and implications from a mass immunization campaign in squatter settlements of Karachi, Pakistan: an experience from a cluster-randomized double-blinded vaccine trial [NCT00125047]

OBJECTIVE: To determine the safety and logistic feasibility of a mass immunization strategy outside the local immunization program in the pediatric population of urban squatter settlements in Karachi, Pakistan. METHODS: A cluster-randomized double blind preventive trial was launched in August 2003 in 60 geographic clusters covering 21,059 children ages 2 to 16 years. After consent was obtained from parents or guardians, eligible children were immunized parenterally at vaccination posts in each cluster with Vi polysaccharide or hepatitis A vaccine. Safety, logistics, and standards were monitored and documented. RESULTS: The vaccine coverage of the population was 74% and was higher in those under age 10 years. No life-threatening serious adverse events were reported. Adverse events occurred in less than 1% of all vaccine recipients and the main reactions reported were fever and local pain. The proportion of adverse events in Vi polysaccharide and hepatitis A recipients will not be known until the end of the trial when the code is broken. Throughout the vaccination campaign safe injection practices were maintained and the cold chain was not interrupted. Mass vaccination in slums had good acceptance. Because populations in such areas are highly mobile, settlement conditions could affect coverage. Systemic reactions were uncommon and local reactions were mild and transient. Close community involvement was pivotal for information dissemination and immunization coverage. CONCLUSION: This vaccine strategy described together with other information that will soon be available in the area (cost/effectiveness, vaccine delivery costs, etc) will make typhoid fever control become a reality in the near future

Association of various reproductive rights, domestic violence and marital rape with depression among Pakistani women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Depression among women is common in developing countries. Gender inequality can contribute to women's risk for depression. Lack of reproductive and sexual rights is an important marker of gender inequality and women do not have the freedom to express their reproductive and sexual needs in many parts of the world. Therefore we designed this study to determine the association of depression with lack of various reproductive rights and domestic violence among married women in Karachi, Pakistan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A case-control study with 152 cases and 152 controls, which included women 15-48 years, recruited from two teaching hospitals from 1^stJune 2007 through 31^stAugust 2007. The SRQ was administered to all subjects. A cut off score of 8 was used to confirm cases of depression diagnosed by physicians, and to exclude cases of depression from the controls. Self-administered questionnaire was used to assess the risk factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>61% of the cases and 43% of the controls were ever abused by spouse and the frequency of marital rape was 33% in cases and 13% in controls. After adjusting for the effects of other variables in the model, less than 18 years of age at marriage (OR 2.00; 95% CI = 1.07, 3.7), decision for marriage by parents (OR 3.51; 95% CI = 1.67, 7.37), abuse by in laws (OR 4.91; 95% CI = 2.66, 9.06), ≤ 3 hours per day spent with husband (OR 2.33; 95% CI = 1.34, 4.08), frequency of intercourse ≤ 2 times per week (OR 1.85; 95% CI = 1.06, 3.22) and marital rape (OR 3.03; 95% CI = 1.50, 6.11) were associated with depression among women.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In our study depression in married women was associated with younger age at marriage, lack of autonomy in marriage decisions, marital rape and domestic abuse by in-laws. Efforts should be directed towards creating awareness about the reproductive and sexual rights of women in Pakistan. Physicians should be trained to screen and identify women who may be at risk for psychological distress as a result of denial of reproductive rights so that they can support positive mental health outcomes through individual, family or marital counseling.</p

Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study.

BACKGROUND: Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally. METHODS: Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex. RESULTS: Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older. CONCLUSIONS: Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys

Public health utility of cause of death data : applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality

Background: Accurate, comprehensive, cause-specific mortality estimates are crucial for informing public health decision making worldwide. Incorrectly or vaguely assigned deaths, defined as garbage-coded deaths, mask the true cause distribution. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study has developed methods to create comparable, timely, cause-specific mortality estimates; an impactful data processing method is the reallocation of garbage-coded deaths to a plausible underlying cause of death. We identify the pattern of garbage-coded deaths in the world and present the methods used to determine their redistribution to generate more plausible cause of death assignments. Methods: We describe the methods developed for the GBD 2019 study and subsequent iterations to redistribute garbage-coded deaths in vital registration data to plausible underlying causes. These methods include analysis of multiple cause data, negative correlation, impairment, and proportional redistribution. We classify garbage codes into classes according to the level of specificity of the reported cause of death (CoD) and capture trends in the global pattern of proportion of garbage-coded deaths, disaggregated by these classes, and the relationship between this proportion and the Socio-Demographic Index. We examine the relative importance of the top four garbage codes by age and sex and demonstrate the impact of redistribution on the annual GBD CoD rankings. Results: The proportion of least-specific (class 1 and 2) garbage-coded deaths ranged from 3.7% of all vital registration deaths to 67.3% in 2015, and the age-standardized proportion had an overall negative association with the Socio Demographic Index. When broken down by age and sex, the category for unspecified lower respiratory infections was responsible for nearly 30% of garbage-coded deaths in those under 1 year of age for both sexes, representing the largest proportion of garbage codes for that age group. We show how the cause distribution by number of deaths changes before and after redistribution for four countries: Brazil, the United States, Japan, and France, highlighting the necessity of accounting for garbage-coded deaths in the GBD

Causes of blindness and vision impairment in 2020 and trends over 30 years, and prevalence of avoidable blindness in relation to VISION 2020 : the right to sight : an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background: Many causes of vision impairment can be prevented or treated. With an ageing global population, the demands for eye health services are increasing. We estimated the prevalence and relative contribution of avoidable causes of blindness and vision impairment globally from 1990 to 2020. We aimed to compare the results with the World Health Assembly Global Action Plan (WHA GAP) target of a 25% global reduction from 2010 to 2019 in avoidable vision impairment, defined as cataract and undercorrected refractive error.Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity from <6/18 to 3/60) and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10° visual field around central fixation) by cause, age, region, and year. Because of data sparsity at younger ages, our analysis focused on adults aged 50 years and older.Findings: Global crude prevalence of avoidable vision impairment and blindness in adults aged 50 years and older did not change between 2010 and 2019 (percentage change −0·2% [95% UI −1·5 to 1·0]; 2019 prevalence 9·58 cases per 1000 people [95% IU 8·51 to 10·8], 2010 prevalence 96·0 cases per 1000 people [86·0 to 107·0]). Age-standardised prevalence of avoidable blindness decreased by −15·4% [–16·8 to −14·3], while avoidable MSVI showed no change (0·5% [–0·8 to 1·6]). However, the number of cases increased for both avoidable blindness (10·8% [8·9 to 12·4]) and MSVI (31·5% [30·0 to 33·1]). The leading global causes of blindness in those aged 50 years and older in 2020 were cataract (15·2 million cases [9% IU 12·7–18·0]), followed by glaucoma (3·6 million cases [2·8–4·4]), undercorrected refractive error (2·3 million cases [1·8–2·8]), age-related macular degeneration (1·8 million cases [1·3–2·4]), and diabetic retinopathy (0·86 million cases [0·59–1·23]). Leading causes of MSVI were undercorrected refractive error (86·1 million cases [74·2–101·0]) and cataract (78·8 million cases [67·2–91·4]).Interpretation: Results suggest eye care services contributed to the observed reduction of age-standardised rates of avoidable blindness but not of MSVI, and that the target in an ageing global population was not reached