Propensities and Second Order Uncertainty: A Modified Taxi Cab Problem

The study of people’s ability to engage in causal probabilistic reasoning has typically used fixed-point estimates for key figures. For example, in the classic taxi-cab problem, where a witness provides evidence on which of two cab companies (the more common ‘green’/less common ‘blue’) were responsible for a hit and run incident, solvers are told the witness’s ability to judge cab color is 80%. In reality, there is likely to be some uncertainty around this estimate (perhaps we tested the witness and they were correct 4/5 times), known as second-order uncertainty, producing a distribution rather than a fixed probability. While generally more closely matching real world reasoning, a further important ramification of this is that our best estimate of the witness’ accuracy can and should change when the witness makes the claim that the cab was blue. We present a Bayesian Network model of this problem, and show that, while the witness’s report does increase our probability of the cab being blue, it simultaneously decreases our estimate of their future accuracy (because blue cabs are less common). We presented this version of the problem to 131 participants, requiring them to update their estimates of both the probability the cab involved was blue, as well as the witness’s accuracy, after they claim it was blue. We also required participants to explain their reasoning process and provided follow up questions to probe various aspects of their reasoning. While some participants responded normatively, the majority self-reported ‘assuming’ one of the probabilities was a certainty. Around a quarter assumed the cab was green, and thus the witness was wrong, decreasing their estimate of their accuracy. Another quarter assumed the witness was correct and actually increased their estimate of their accuracy, showing a circular logic similar to that seen in the confirmation bias/belief polarization literature. Around half of participants refused to make any change, with convergent evidence suggesting that these participants do not see the relevance of the witness’s report to their accuracy before we know for certain whether they are correct or incorrect

Categorical Updating in a Bayesian Propensity Problem

We present three experiments using a novel problem in which participants update their estimates of propensities when faced with an uncertain new instance. We examine this using two different causal structures (common cause/common effect) and two different scenarios (agent-based/mechanical). In the first, participants must update their estimate of the propensity for two warring nations to successfully explode missiles after being told of a new explosion on the border between both nations. In the second, participants must update their estimate of the accuracy of two early warning tests for cancer when they produce conflicting reports about a patient. Across both experiments, we find two modal responses, representing around one-third of participants each. In the first, "Categorical" response, participants update propensity estimates as if they were certain about the single event, for example, certain that one of the nations was responsible for the latest explosion, or certain about which of the two tests is correct. In the second, "No change" response, participants make no update to their propensity estimates at all. Across the three experiments, the theory is developed and tested that these two responses in fact have a single representation of the problem: because the actual outcome is binary (only one of the nations could have launched the missile; the patient either has cancer or not), these participants believe it is incorrect to update propensities in a graded manner. They therefore operate on a "certainty threshold" basis, whereby, if they are certain enough about the single event, they will make the "Categorical" response, and if they are below this threshold, they will make the "No change" response. Ramifications are considered for the "categorical" response in particular, as this approach produces a positive-feedback dynamic similar to that seen in the belief polarization/confirmation bias literature

Nested Sets and Natural Frequencies

Is the nested sets approach to improving accuracy on Bayesian word problems simply a way of prompting a natural frequencies solution, as its critics claim? Conversely, is it in fact, as its advocates claim, a more fundamental explanation of why the natural frequency approach itself works? Following recent calls, we use a process-focused approach to contribute to answering these long-debated questions. We also argue for a third, pragmatic way of looking at these two approaches and argue that they reveal different truths about human Bayesian reasoning. Using a think aloud methodology we show that while the nested sets approach does appear in part to work via the mechanisms theorised by advocates (by encouraging a nested sets representation), it also encourages conversion of the problem to frequencies, as its critics claim. The ramifications of these findings, as well as ways to further enhance the nested sets approach and train individuals to deal with standard probability problems are discussed

Luminescence characteristics of quartz from Brazilian sediments and constraints for OSL dating

This study analyzes the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) characteristics of quartz grains from fluvial, eolian and shallow marine sands of northeastern and southeastern Brazil, with especial focus on the applicability of the single-aliquot regenerative dose (SAR) dating protocol. All analyzed Brazilian sediments presented relatively high OSL sensitivity and good behavior regarding their luminescence characteristics relevant for radiation dose estimation. However, some samples from the Lençóis Maranhenses region in northeastern Brazil showed inadequate OSL sensitivity correction, hampering the implementation of the SAR protocol and their ability to behave as a natural dosimeter. While the shallow marine and eolian samples showed a narrow and reliable dose distribution, the fluvial sample had a wide dose distribution, suggesting incomplete bleaching and natural doses estimates dependent on age models

Novel Allelic Variants in the Canine Cyclooxgenase-2 (Cox-2) Promoter Are Associated with Renal Dysplasia in Dogs

Renal dysplasia (RD) in dogs is a complex disease with a highly variable phenotype and mode of inheritance that does not follow a simple Mendelian pattern. Cox-2 (Cyclooxgenase-2) deficient mice have renal abnormalities and a pathology that has striking similarities to RD in dogs suggesting to us that mutations in the Cox-2 gene could be the cause of RD in dogs. Our data supports this hypothesis. Sequencing of the canine Cox-2 gene was done from clinically affected and normal dogs. Although no changes were detected in the Cox-2 coding region, small insertions and deletions of GC boxes just upstream of the ATG translation start site were found. These sequences are putative SP1 transcription factor binding sites that may represent important cis-acting DNA regulatory elements that govern the expression of Cox-2. A pedigree study of a family of Lhasa apsos revealed an important statistical correlation of these mutant alleles with the disease. We examined an additional 22 clinical cases from various breeds. Regardless of the breed or severity of disease, all of these had one or two copies of the Cox-2 allelic variants. We suggest that the unusual inheritance pattern of RD is due to these alleles, either by changing the pattern of expression of Cox-2 or making Cox-2 levels susceptible to influences of other genes or environmental factors that play an unknown but important role in the development of RD in dogs

The effects of stimulus complexity on the preattentive processing of self-generated and nonself voices: an ERP study

The ability to differentiate one's own voice from the voice of somebody else plays a critical role in successful verbal self-monitoring processes and in communication. However, most of the existing studies have only focused on the sensory correlates of self-generated voice processing, whereas the effects of attentional demands and stimulus complexity on self-generated voice processing remain largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the effects of stimulus complexity on the preattentive processing of self and nonself voice stimuli. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded from 17 healthy males who watched a silent movie while ignoring prerecorded self-generated (SGV) and nonself (NSV) voice stimuli, consisting of a vocalization (vocalization category condition: VCC) or of a disyllabic word (word category condition: WCC). All voice stimuli were presented as standard and deviant events in four distinct oddball sequences. The mismatch negativity (MMN) ERP component peaked earlier for NSV than for SGV stimuli. Moreover, when compared with SGV stimuli, the P3a amplitude was increased for NSV stimuli in the VCC only, whereas in the WCC no significant differences were found between the two voice types. These findings suggest differences in the time course of automatic detection of a change in voice identity. In addition, they suggest that stimulus complexity modulates the magnitude of the orienting response to SGV and NSV stimuli, extending previous findings on self-voice processing.This work was supported by Grant Numbers IF/00334/2012, PTDC/PSI-PCL/116626/2010, and PTDC/MHN-PCN/3606/2012, funded by the Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal) and the Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional through the European programs Quadro de Referencia Estrategico Nacional and Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade, awarded to A.P.P., and by FCT Doctoral Grant Number SFRH/BD/77681/2011, awarded to T.C.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The role of complex cues in social and reproductive plasticity

Phenotypic plasticity can be a key determinant of fitness. The degree to which the expression of plasticity is adaptive relies upon the accuracy with which information about the state of the environment is integrated. This step might be particularly beneficial when environments, e.g. the social and sexual context, change rapidly. Fluctuating temporal dynamics could increase the difficulty of determining the appropriate level of expression of a plastic response. In this review, we suggest that new insights into plastic responses to the social and sexual environment (social and reproductive plasticity) may be gained by examining the role of complex cues (those comprising multiple, distinct sensory components). Such cues can enable individuals to more accurately monitor their environment in order to respond adaptively to it across the whole life course. We briefly review the hypotheses for the evolution of complex cues and then adapt these ideas to the context of social and sexual plasticity. We propose that the ability to perceive complex cues can facilitate plasticity, increase the associated fitness benefits and decrease the risk of costly ‘mismatches’ between phenotype and environment by (i) increasing the robustness of information gained from highly variable environments, (ii) fine-tuning responses by using multiple strands of information and (iii) reducing time lags in adaptive responses. We conclude by outlining areas for future research that will help to determine the interplay between complex cues and plasticity