Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies

There is a vast literature on exchange rate forecasting focusing on developed economies. Since the early 1990s, many developing economies have liberalized their financial accounts, and become an integral part of the international financial system. A series of financial crises experienced by these emerging market economies ed them to switch to some form of a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with inflation targeting. These developments, in turn, accentuate the need for exchange rate forecasting in such economies. This paper is a first attempt to compile data from the emerging Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies, to evaluate the performance of versions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, and time series models for forecasting exchange rates. Forecast performance of these models at various horizons are evaluated against that of a random walk, which, overwhelmingly, was found to be the best exchange rate predictor for developed economies in the previous literature. Following Clark and West (2006, 2007) for forecast performance analysis, we report that in short horizons, structural models and time series models outperform the random walk for the six CEE countries in the data set

Computer simulation of a pilot in V/STOL aircraft control loops

The objective was to develop a computerized adaptive pilot model for the computer model of the research aircraft, the Harrier II AV-8B V/STOL with special emphasis on propulsion control. In fact, two versions of the adaptive pilot are given. The first, simply called the Adaptive Control Model (ACM) of a pilot includes a parameter estimation algorithm for the parameters of the aircraft and an adaption scheme based on the root locus of the poles of the pilot controlled aircraft. The second, called the Optimal Control Model of the pilot (OCM), includes an adaption algorithm and an optimal control algorithm. These computer simulations were developed as a part of the ongoing research program in pilot model simulation supported by NASA Lewis from April 1, 1985 to August 30, 1986 under NASA Grant NAG 3-606 and from September 1, 1986 through November 30, 1988 under NASA Grant NAG 3-729. Once installed, these pilot models permitted the computer simulation of the pilot model to close all of the control loops normally closed by a pilot actually manipulating the control variables. The current version of this has permitted a baseline comparison of various qualitative and quantitative performance indices for propulsion control, the control loops and the work load on the pilot. Actual data for an aircraft flown by a human pilot furnished by NASA was compared to the outputs furnished by the computerized pilot and found to be favorable

Unparticle physics in top pair signals at the LHC and ILC

We study the effects of unparticle physics in the pair productions of top quarks at the LHC and ILC. By considering vector, tensor and scalar unparticle operators, as appropriate, we compute the total cross sections for pair production processes depending on scale dimension d_{\U}. We find that the existence of unparticles would lead to measurable enhancements on the SM predictions at the LHC. In the case of ILC this may become two orders of magnitude larger than that of SM, for smaller values of d_\U, a very striking signal for unparticles.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figures, analysis for ILC has been adde

Unparticle Physics in Single Top Signals

We study the single production of top quarks in $e^+e^-, ep$ and $pp$ collisions in the context of unparticle physics through the Flavor Violating (FV) unparticle vertices and compute the total cross sections for single top production as functions of scale dimension d_{\U}. We find that among all, LHC is the most promising facility to probe the unparticle physics via single top quark production processes.Comment: 14 pages, 10 figure

Constraints on Astro-unparticle Physics from SN 1987A

SN 1987A observations have been used to place constraints on the interactions between standard model particles and unparticles. In this study we calculate the energy loss from the supernovae core through scalar, pseudo scalar, vector, pseudo vector unparticle emission from nuclear bremsstrahlung for degenerate nuclear matter interacting through one pion exchange. In order to examine the constraints on $d_{\cal U}=1$ we considered the emission of scalar, pseudo scalar, vector, pseudo vector and tensor through the pair annihilation process $e^+e^-\to {\cal U} \gamma$. In addition we have re-examined other pair annihilation processes. The most stringent bounds on the dimensionless coupling constants for $d_{\cal U} =1$ and $\Lambda_{\cal U}= m_Z$ are obtained from nuclear bremsstrahlung process for the pseudo scalar and pseudo-vector couplings $\bigl|\lambda^{\cal P}_{0,1}\bigr|\leq 4\times 10^{-11}$ and for tensor interaction, the best limit on dimensionless coupling is obtained from $e^+ e^-\to {\cal U} \gamma$ and we get $\bigl|\lambda^{\cal T}\bigr| \leq 6\times 10^{-6}$.Comment: 12 pages, 2 postscript figure

Constraints from Solar and Reactor Neutrinos on Unparticle Long-Range Forces

We have investigated the impact of long-range forces induced by unparticle operators of scalar, vector and tensor nature coupled to fermions in the interpretation of solar neutrinos and KamLAND data. If the unparticle couplings to the neutrinos are mildly non-universal, such long-range forces will not factorize out in the neutrino flavour evolution. As a consequence large deviations from the observed standard matter-induced oscillation pattern for solar neutrinos would be generated. In this case, severe limits can be set on the infrared fix point scale, Lambda_u, and the new physics scale, M, as a function of the ultraviolet (d_UV) and anomalous (d) dimension of the unparticle operator. For a scalar unparticle, for instance, assuming the non-universality of the lepton couplings to unparticles to be of the order of a few per mil we find that, for d_UV=3 and d=1.1, M is constrained to be M > O(10^9) TeV (M > O(10^10) TeV) if Lambda_u= 1 TeV (10 TeV). For given values of Lambda_u and d, the corresponding bounds on M for vector [tensor] unparticles are approximately 100 [3/Sqrt(Lambda_u/TeV)] times those for the scalar case. Conversely, these results can be translated into severe constraints on universality violation of the fermion couplings to unparticle operators with scales which can be accessible at future colliders.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures. Minor changes due to precision in numerical factors and correction in figure labels. References added. Conclusions remain unchange

Polygenic Prediction of Weight and Obesity Trajectories from Birth to Adulthood

Severe obesity is a rapidly growing global health threat. Although often attributed to unhealthy lifestyle choices or environmental factors, obesity is known to be heritable and highly polygenic; the majority of inherited susceptibility is related to the cumulative effect of many common DNA variants. Here we derive and validate a new polygenic predictor comprised of 2.1 million common variants to quantify this susceptibility and test this predictor in more than 300,000 individuals ranging from middle age to birth. Among middle-aged adults, we observe a 13-kg gradient in weight and a 25-fold gradient in risk of severe obesity across polygenic score deciles. In a longitudinal birth cohort, we note minimal differences in birthweight across score deciles, but a significant gradient emerged in early childhood and reached 12 kg by 18 years of age. This new approach to quantify inherited susceptibility to obesity affords new opportunities for clinical prevention and mechanistic assessment. © 2019 Author(s)National Human Genome Research Institute (1K08HG0101)Wellcome Trust (202802/Z/16/Z)University of Bristol NIHR Biomedical Research Centre (S- BRC-1215-20011)National Human Genome Research Institute (HG008895)National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) HHSN268201300025CNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) HHSN268201300026CNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) HHSN268201300027CNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) HHSN268201300028CNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) HHSN268201300029CNational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) HHSN268200900041CNational Institute on Aging (AG0005)NHLBI (AG0005)National Human Genome Research Institute (U01-HG004729)National Human Genome Research Institute (U01-HG04424)National Human Genome Research Institute (U01-HG004446)Wellcome (102215/2/13/2

Modulation of Sn concentration in ZnO nanorod array: intensification on the conductivity and humidity sensing properties

Tin (Sn)-doped zinc oxide (ZnO) nanorod arrays (TZO) were synthesized onto aluminum-doped ZnO-coated glass substrate via a facile sonicated sol–gel immersion method for humidity sensor applications. These nanorod arrays were grown at different Sn concentrations ranging from 0.6 to 3 at.%. X-ray diffraction patterns showed that the deposited TZO arrays exhibited a wurtzite structure. The stress/strain condition of the ZnO film metamorphosed from tensile strain/compressive stress to compressive strain/tensile stress when the Sn concentrations increased. Results indicated that 1 at.% Sn doping of TZO, which has the lowest tensile stress of 0.14 GPa, generated the highest conductivity of 1.31 S cm− 1. In addition, 1 at.% Sn doping of TZO possessed superior sensitivity to a humidity of 3.36. These results revealed that the optimum performance of a humidity-sensing device can be obtained mainly by controlling the amount of extrinsic element in a ZnO film

A Large Hadron Electron Collider at CERN

This document provides a brief overview of the recently published report on the design of the Large Hadron Electron Collider (LHeC), which comprises its physics programme, accelerator physics, technology and main detector concepts. The LHeC exploits and develops challenging, though principally existing, accelerator and detector technologies. This summary is complemented by brief illustrations of some of the highlights of the physics programme, which relies on a vastly extended kinematic range, luminosity and unprecedented precision in deep inelastic scattering. Illustrations are provided regarding high precision QCD, new physics (Higgs, SUSY) and electron-ion physics. The LHeC is designed to run synchronously with the LHC in the twenties and to achieve an integrated luminosity of O(100) fb$^{-1}$. It will become the cleanest high resolution microscope of mankind and will substantially extend as well as complement the investigation of the physics of the TeV energy scale, which has been enabled by the LHC