Long-term wind resource assessment for small and medium-scale turbines using operational forecast data and measure-correlate-predict

Output from a state-of-the-art, 4 km resolution, operational forecast model (UK4) was investigated as a source of long-term historical reference data for wind resource assessment. The data were used to implement measure-correlate-predict (MCP) approaches at 37 sites throughout the United Kingdom (UK). The monthly and hourly linear correlation between the UK4-predicted and observed wind speeds indicates that UK4 is capable of representing the wind climate better than the nearby meteorological stations considered. Linear MCP algorithms were implemented at the same sites using reference data from UK4 and nearby meteorological stations to predict the long-term (10-year) wind resource. To obtain robust error statistics, MCP algorithms were applied using onsite measurement periods of 1-12 months initiated at 120 different starting months throughout an 11 year data record. Using linear regression MCP over 12 months, the average percentage errors in the long-term predicted mean wind speed and power density were 3.0% and 7.6% respectively, using UK4, and 2.8% and 7.9% respectively, using nearby meteorological stations. The results indicate that UK4 is highly competitive with nearby meteorological observations as an MCP reference data source. UK4 was also shown to systematically improve MCP predictions at coastal sites due to better representation of local diurnal effects

A Novel Self-aligned and Maskless Process for Formation of Highly Uniform Arrays of Nanoholes and Nanopillars

Fabrication of a large area of periodic structures with deep sub-wavelength features is required in many applications such as solar cells, photonic crystals, and artificial kidneys. We present a low-cost and high-throughput process for realization of 2D arrays of deep sub-wavelength features using a self-assembled monolayer of hexagonally close packed (HCP) silica and polystyrene microspheres. This method utilizes the microspheres as super-lenses to fabricate nanohole and pillar arrays over large areas on conventional positive and negative photoresist, and with a high aspect ratio. The period and diameter of the holes and pillars formed with this technique can be controlled precisely and independently. We demonstrate that the method can produce HCP arrays of hole of sub-250 nm size using a conventional photolithography system with a broadband UV source centered at 400 nm. We also present our 3D FDTD modeling, which shows a good agreement with the experimental results

The First VERITAS Telescope

The first atmospheric Cherenkov telescope of VERITAS (the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System) has been in operation since February 2005. We present here a technical description of the instrument and a summary of its performance. The calibration methods are described, along with the results of Monte Carlo simulations of the telescope and comparisons between real and simulated data. The analysis of TeV $\gamma$-ray observations of the Crab Nebula, including the reconstructed energy spectrum, is shown to give results consistent with earlier measurements. The telescope is operating as expected and has met or exceeded all design specifications.Comment: Accepted by Astroparticle Physic

Low-cost wind resource assessment for small-scale turbine installations using site pre-screening and short-term wind measurements

A two-stage approach to low-cost wind resource assessment for small-scale wind installations has been investigated in terms of its ability to screen for non-viable sites and to provide accurate wind power predictions at promising locations. The approach was implemented as a case study at ten UK locations where domestic-scale turbines were previously installed. In stage one, sites were pre-screened using a boundary-layer scaling model to predict the mean wind power density, including estimated uncertainties, and these predictions were compared to a minimum viability criterion. Using this procedure, five of the seven non-viable sites were correctly identified without direct onsite wind measurements and none of the viable sites were excluded. In stage two, more detailed analysis was carried out using 3 months onsite wind measurements combined with measure-correlate-predict (MCP) approaches. Using this process, the remaining two non-viable sites were identified and the available wind power density at the three viable sites was accurately predicted. The effect of seasonal variability on the MCPpredicted wind resource was considered and the implications for financial projections were highlighted. The study provides a framework for low-cost wind resource assessment in cases where long-term onsite measurements may be too costly or impractical

Comparison between the bivariate Weibull probability approach and linear regression for assessment of the long-term wind energy resource using MCP

A detailed investigation of a measure-correlate-predict (MCP) approach based on the bivariate Weibull (BW) probability distribution of wind speeds at pairs of correlated sites has been conducted. Since wind speeds are typically assumed to follow Weibull distributions, this approach has a stronger theoretical basis than widely used regression MCP techniques. Building on previous work that applied the technique to artificially generated wind data, we have used long-term (11 year) wind observations at 22 pairs of correlated UK sites. Additionally, 22 artificial wind data sets were generated from ideal BW distributions modelled on the observed data at the 22 site pairs. Comparison of the fitting efficiency revealed that significantly longer data periods were required to accurately extract the BW distribution parameters from the observed data, compared to artificial wind data, due to seasonal variations. The overall performance of the BW approach was compared to standard regression MCP techniques for the prediction of the 10 year wind resource using both observed and artificially generated wind data at the 22 site pairs for multiple short-term measurement periods of 1-12 months. Prediction errors were quantified by comparing the predicted and observed values of mean wind speed, mean wind power density, Weibull shape factor and standard deviation of wind speeds at each site. Using the artificial wind data, the BW approach outperformed the regression approaches for all measurement periods. When applied to the real wind speed observations however, the performance of the BW approach was comparable to the regression approaches when using a full 12 month measurement period and generally worse than the regression approaches for shorter data periods. This suggests that real wind observations at correlated sites may differ from ideal BW distributions and hence regression approaches, which require less fitting parameters, may be more appropriate, particularly when using short measurement periods

Pengaruh Pemberian Ketotifen terhadap Jumlah Sel Fibroblas dan Kepadatan Sel Kolagen pada Luka Insisi Tikus Wistar

Ingga Hadian, S-501202027. PENGARUH PEMBERIAN KETOTIFEN TERHADAP JUMLAH SEL FIBROBLAS DAN KEPADATAN SEL KOLAGEN PADA LUKA INSISI TIKUS WISTAR. Pembimbing I : DR. Untung Alfianto, dr, Sp.Bs, Pembimbing II : dr. Ardana Tri Arianto. Msi. Med. Sp.An-KNA. Program studi Magister Kedokteran Keluarga, Minat Utama Ilmu Biomedik, Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Sebelas Maret, Surakarta, 2016. Latar Belakang : Sel mast merupakan salah satu yang berperan dalam proses inflamasi pada penyembuhan luka. Sel mast dikaitkan dengan kejadian luka kronis, sehingga sel mast diduga ikut memelihara proses inflamasi secara berlebihan. Hambatan pada degranulasi sel mast diharapkan akan mempercepat penyembuhan luka yang ditandai dengan meningkatnya jumlah sel fibroblas dan kepadatan sel kolagen. Ketotifen mampu mengurangi dreganulasi sel Mast dan mengurangi pelepasan Histamin, protease sel Mast, myeloperoxidase, leukotriens, PAF dan bermacam-macam Prostaglandin. Ketotifen juga menghambat agregasi polimorfonuklear serta mengurangi respon inflamasi dan mempercepat migrasi fibroblas di fase proliferasi. Tujuan :Mengetahui perbedaan jumlah sel fibroblas dan kepadatan sel kolagen pada tikus wistar yang diberikan Ketotifen oral dosis 0.3 mg/kg dibandingkan plasebo pada penyembuhan luka insisi tikus wistar. Metode : Penelitian ini termasuk true eksperimental laboratorik dengan desain Randomized Controlled Trial yang menggunakan tikus wistar sebagai obyek penelitian. 14 tikus Wistar dibagi dalam 2 kelompok, masing masing kelompok terdiri atas 7 tikus Wistar. Kelompok 1 merupakan kelompok kontrol yang dilakukan insisi sepanjang 2cm pada kulit punggung tikus dan diberikan plasebo per oral selama 6 hari. Kelompok 2 merupakan kelompok perlakuan yang dilakukan insisi sepanjang 2cm pada kulit punggung tikus dan diberikan Ketotifen 0,3 mg/kgBB per oral setiap 12 jam selama 6 hari. Analisis data untuk membandingkan rerata antar kedua kelompok yaitu kelompok perlakuan dan kelompok kontrol menggunakan uji independent samples t-test, dengan tingkat kemaknaan p < 0,05 (dikatakan bermakna secara statistik). Hasil : Pada kelompok kontrol didapatkan rerata persentase kepadatan sel kolagen sebesar 26,05 %, sedangkan pada kelompok Ketotifen didapatkan rerata persentase kepadatan sel kolagen sebesar 36,13 %. Untuk jumlah sel fibroblas pada kelompok kontrol didapatkan rerata sebesar 423 per lapang pandang, sedangkan pada kelompok Ketotifen didapatkan rerata sebesar 555,43 per lapang pandang. Kesimpulan : Ketotifen mempercepat penyembuhan luka ditandai dengan peningkatan sel fibroblas dan sel kolagen. Kata Kunci : Sel Mast, Ketotifen, Sel fibroblas, Serabut Kolagen. ABSTRACT Ingga Hadian, S-501202027. EFFECTS OF KETOTIFEN ON FIBROBLAST CELL COUNT AND COLLAGEN DENSITY ON INCISED WISTAR RATS. DR. Untung Alfianto, dr., Sp.BS, dr. Ardana Tri Arianto, Msi, Med, Sp.An-KNA. Background: Mast cells have a pivotal role in every healing process that involves inflammation of the cells, usually in wounds of chronic nature. If the degranulation process of the mast cells are inhibited, the healing process of the wound will accelerate, indicated by a raise in fibroblast cells and collagen density. Ketotifen are shown to inhibit the degranulation process and decreasing the release of histamin, mast cells proteases, myeloperoxidases, leukotriens, PAF, and various prostaglandins. Ketotifen can also inhibit the aggregation of polymorphonuclear cells, increasing the rate of fibroblast migration in the proliferation phase. This study was aimed to identify the effects of ketotifen on fibroblast cell count and collagen density tested on a wistar rats model. Methods: This study was a true laboratoric experimental study with randomized controlled trial using wistar rats model as objects. 14 rats were divided into two groups, each group contained seven rats. The first group was the control group, where the rats were incised 2 cm above the back skin, and were given per oral placebo for 6 days. The second group were given the same treatment, only the rats were given ketotifen 0.3 mg/kg per oral, every 12 hours lasting 6 days. The data were then collected and tested with independent sample t-test, with p value less than 0,05 is statistically significant. Results: In the control group, the mean percentage of the thickest collagen density were marked at 26.05%, whereas in the treatment group collagen density were marked at 36.13%. The mean fibroblast cell count were marked at 423 and 555.43 each viewing field, on the control group and the treatment group respectively. Conclusion: Ketotifen can accelerate the healing process, marked by the significant increase in collagen density and fibroblast cell count. Keywords: mast cells, ketotifen, fibroblast cells, collagen fibers

Multiwavelength observations of a TeV-Flare from W comae

We report results from an intensive multiwavelength campaign on the intermediate-frequency-peaked BL Lacertae object W Com (z = 0.102) during a strong outburst of very high energy gamma-ray emission in 2008 June. The very high energy gamma-ray signal was detected by VERITAS on 2008 June 7-8 with a flux F(>200 GeV) =(5.7 0.6) × 10-11 cm-2 s -1, about three times brighter than during the discovery of gamma-ray emission from W Com by VERITAS in 2008 March. The initial detection of this flare by VERITAS at energies above 200 GeV was followed by observations in high-energy gamma rays (AGILE; E γ≥ 100 MeV), X-rays (Swift and XMM-Newton), and at UV, and ground-based optical and radio monitoring through the GASP-WEBT consortium and other observatories. Here we describe the multiwavelength data and derive the spectral energy distribution of the source from contemporaneous data taken throughout the flare. © 2009. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved

Insights into the high-energy γ-ray emission of Markarian 501 from extensive multifrequency observations in the Fermi era

We report on the γ-ray activity of the blazar Mrk 501 during the first 480 days of Fermi operation. We find that the average Large Area Telescope (LAT) γ-ray spectrum of Mrk 501 can be well described by a single power-law function with a photon index of 1.78 ± 0.03. While we observe relatively mild flux variations with the Fermi-LAT (within less than a factor of two), we detect remarkable spectral variability where the hardest observed spectral index within the LAT energy range is 1.52 ± 0.14, and the softest one is 2.51 ± 0.20. These unexpected spectral changes do not correlate with the measured flux variations above 0.3 GeV. In this paper, we also present the first results from the 4.5 month long multifrequency campaign (2009 March 15-August 1) on Mrk 501, which included the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA), Swift, RXTE, MAGIC, and VERITAS, the F-GAMMA, GASP-WEBT, and other collaborations and instruments which provided excellent temporal and energy coverage of the source throughout the entire campaign. The extensive radio to TeV data set from this campaign provides us with the most detailed spectral energy distribution yet collected for this source during its relatively low activity. The average spectral energy distribution of Mrk 501 is well described by the standard one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model. In the framework of this model, we find that the dominant emission region is characterized by a size ≲0.1 pc (comparable within a factor of few to the size of the partially resolved VLBA core at 15-43 GHz), and that the total jet power (≃1044 erg s-1) constitutes only a small fraction (∼10-3) of the Eddington luminosity. The energy distribution of the freshly accelerated radiating electrons required to fit the time-averaged data has a broken power-law form in the energy range 0.3 GeV-10 TeV, with spectral indices 2.2 and 2.7 below and above the break energy of 20 GeV. We argue that such a form is consistent with a scenario in which the bulk of the energy dissipation within the dominant emission zone of Mrk 501 is due to relativistic, proton-mediated shocks. We find that the ultrarelativistic electrons and mildly relativistic protons within the blazar zone, if comparable in number, are in approximate energy equipartition, with their energy dominating the jet magnetic field energy by about two orders of magnitude. © 2011. The American Astronomical Society

Data efficient measure-correlate-predict approaches to wind resource assessment for small-scale wind energy

The feasibility of predicting the long-term wind resource at 22 UK sites using a measure-correlate-predict (MCP) approach based on just three months onsite wind speed measurements has been investigated. Three regression based techniques were compared in terms of their ability to predict the wind resource at a target site based on measurements at a nearby reference site. The accuracy of the predicted parameters of mean wind speed, mean wind power density, standard deviation of wind speeds and the Weibull shape factor was assessed, and their associated error distributions were investigated, using long-term measurements recorded over a period of 10 years. For each site, 120 wind resource predictions covering the entire data period were obtained using a sliding window approach to account for inter-annual and seasonal variations. Both the magnitude and sign of the prediction errors were found to be strongly dependent on the season used for onsite measurements. Averaged across 22 sites and all seasons, the best performing MCP approach resulted in mean absolute and percentage errors in the mean wind speed of 0.21ms and 4.8% respectively, and in the mean wind power density of 11Wm and 14%. The average errors were reduced to 3.6% in the mean wind speed and 10% in the mean wind power density when using the optimum season for onsite wind measurements. These values were shown to be a large improvement on the predictions obtained using an established semi-empirical model based on boundary layer scaling. The results indicate that the MCP approaches applied to very short onsite measurement periods have the potential to be a valuable addition to the wind resource assessment toolkit for small-scale wind developers