The Rise and Fall of HIV in High-Prevalence Countries: A Challenge for Mathematical Modeling

Several countries with generalized, high-prevalence HIV epidemics, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, have experienced rapid declines in transmission. These HIV epidemics, often with rapid onsets, have generally been attributed to a combination of factors related to high-risk sexual behavior. The subsequent declines in these countries began prior to widespread therapy or implementation of any other major biomedical prevention. This change has been construed as evidence of behavior change, often on the basis of mathematical models, but direct evidence for behavior changes that would explain these declines is limited. Here, we look at the structure of current models and argue that the common "fixed risk per sexual contact" assumption favors the conclusion of substantial behavior changes. We argue that this assumption ignores reported non-linearities between exposure and risk. Taking this into account, we propose that some of the decline in HIV transmission may be part of the natural dynamics of the epidemic, and that several factors that have traditionally been ignored by modelers for lack of precise quantitative estimates may well hold the key to understanding epidemiologic trends

Projected WIMP sensitivity of the LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter experiment

LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) is a next-generation dark matter direct detection experiment that will operate 4850 feet underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) in Lead, South Dakota, USA. Using a two-phase xenon detector with an active mass of 7 tonnes, LZ will search primarily for low-energy interactions with weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs), which are hypothesized to make up the dark matter in our galactic halo. In this paper, the projected WIMP sensitivity of LZ is presented based on the latest background estimates and simulations of the detector. For a 1000 live day run using a 5.6-tonne fiducial mass, LZ is projected to exclude at 90% confidence level spin-independent WIMP-nucleon cross sections above 1.4 × 10-48cm2 for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP. Additionally, a 5σ discovery potential is projected, reaching cross sections below the exclusion limits of recent experiments. For spin-dependent WIMP-neutron(-proton) scattering, a sensitivity of 2.3 × 10−43 cm2 (7.1 × 10−42 cm2) for a 40 GeV/c2 mass WIMP is expected. With underground installation well underway, LZ is on track for commissioning at SURF in 2020

Hypoxic Pulmonary Vasoconstriction in Humans:Tale or Myth

Hypoxic Pulmonary vasoconstriction (HPV) describes the physiological adaptive process of lungs to preserves systemic oxygenation. It has clinical implications in the development of pulmonary hypertension which impacts on outcomes of patients undergoing cardiothoracic surgery. This review examines both acute and chronic hypoxic vasoconstriction focusing on the distinct clinical implications and highlights the role of calcium and mitochondria in acute versus the role of reactive oxygen species and Rho GTPases in chronic HPV. Furthermore it identifies gaps of knowledge and need for further research in humans to clearly define this phenomenon and the underlying mechanism

Measurement of the gamma ray background in the Davis Cavern at the Sanford Underground Research Facility

Deep underground environments are ideal for low background searches due to the attenuation of cosmic rays by passage through the earth. However, they are affected by backgrounds from γ-rays emitted by 40K and the 238U and 232Th decay chains in the surrounding rock. The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment will search for dark matter particle interactions with a liquid xenon TPC located within the Davis campus at the Sanford Underground Research Facility, Lead, South Dakota, at the 4,850-foot level. In order to characterise the cavern background, in-situ γ-ray measurements were taken with a sodium iodide detector in various locations and with lead shielding. The integral count rates (0--3300~keV) varied from 596~Hz to 1355~Hz for unshielded measurements, corresponding to a total flux in the cavern of 1.9±0.4~γ cm−2s−1. The resulting activity in the walls of the cavern can be characterised as 220±60~Bq/kg of 40K, 29±15~Bq/kg of 238U, and 13±3~Bq/kg of 232Th

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Importance of trophic information, simplification and aggregation error in ecosystem models

Ecosystem models are becoming increasingly important as pressure from fisheries intensifies and ecosystem-based fisheries management becomes more widely used. Trophic webs often form the basis of ecosystem models and ecosystem-specific dietary information is crucial for optimal model performance. This is particularly the case if model predictions are used in management decisions. The Tasmanian live fish fishery for banded morwong was used as a case study to investigate the importance of trophic information, model simplification and aggregation error on ecosystem model results. Dietary analysis of 6 commonly captured reef fish was undertaken. Significant trophic overlap was found between blue throat wrasse Notolabrus tetricus and purple wrasse N. fucicola, and banded morwong Cheilodactylus spectabilis and bastard trumpeter Latridopsis forsten. Marblefish Aplodactylus arctidens and long-snouted boarfish Pentaceropsis recurvirostris had significantly different diets from other species studied. Using this information, a detailed qualitative model was produced and then simplified through the aggregation of variables. Variables were aggregated using 3 methods: Euclidean distance, Bray-Curtis similarity, and regular equivalence for inclusion in 3 simplified models. Variable aggregation is undertaken in many studies and may create aggregation error. Each aggregation method produced a different proportion of incorrect model predictions as a result of aggregation error. The model simplified using regular equivalence produced the least aggregation error and a web structure aligned with the dietary analysis. More widespread use of these methods in fisheries management should be considered