Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches

Background: The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was explored using two markedly different modelling approaches. First, a simple temperature-dependent, process-based model of malaria growth transmitted by Anopheles atroparvus, the historical vector of malaria in the UK. Second, a statistical model using logistic-regression was used to predict historical malaria incidence between 1917 and 1918 in the UK, based on environmental and demographic data. Using findings from these models and saltmarsh distributions, future risk maps for malaria in the UK were produced based on UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Results: The process-based model of climate suitability showed good correspondence with historical records of malaria cases. An analysis of the statistical models showed that mean temperature of the warmest month of the year was the major factor explaining the distribution of malaria, further supporting the use of the temperature-driven processed-based model. The risk maps indicate that large areas of central and southern England could support malaria transmission today and could increase in extent in the future. Confidence in these predictions is increased by the concordance between the processed-based and statistical models. Conclusion: Although the future climate in the UK is favourable for the transmission of vivax malaria, the future risk of locally transmitted malaria is considered low because of low vector biting rates and the low probability of vectors feeding on a malaria-infected person

Contrasting life histories in neighbouring populations of a large mammal

Background: A fundamental life history question is how individuals should allocate resources to reproduction optimally over time (reproductive allocation). The reproductive restraint hypothesis predicts that reproductive effort (RE; the allocation of resources to current reproduction) should peak at prime-age, whilst the terminal investment hypothesis predicts that individuals should continue to invest more resources in reproduction throughout life, owing to an ever-decreasing residual reproductive value. There is evidence supporting both hypotheses in the scientific literature. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used an uncommonly large, 38 year dataset on Alpine chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) shot at various times during the rutting period to test these two hypotheses. We assumed that body mass loss in rutting males was strongly related to RE and, using a process-based approach, modelled how male relative mass loss rates varied with age. For different regions of our study area, we provide evidence consistent with different hypotheses for reproductive allocation. In sites where RE declined in older age, this appears to be strongly linked to declining body condition in old males. In this species, terminal investment may only occur in areas with lower rates of body mass senescence. Conclusions/Significance: Our results show that patterns of reproductive allocation may be more plastic than previously thought. It appears that there is a continuum from downturns in RE at old age to terminal investment that can be manifest, even across adjacent populations. Our work identifies uncertainty in the relationship between reproductive restraint and a lack of competitive ability in older life (driven by body mass senescence); both could explain a decline in RE in old age and may be hard to disentangle in empirical data. We discuss a number of environmental and anthropogenic factors which could influence reproductive life histories, underlining that life history patterns should not be generalised across different populations

Better, faster, more versatile NMR diffusion measurements

The range of applications and versatility of NMR diffusion measurements [1,2] increase with the speed, accuracy, and the practical lower concentration limits that can be used. For example, faster measurements expand the horizons of diffusion measurements to study reaction kinetics [3,4], as well as simply increasing throughput. Our group has been investigating various approaches for improving the performance of NMR diffusion measurements. Here we present some of our recent advances

Fermi surface nesting and possibility of orbital ordering in FeO

We study FeO, a Mott insulator in GGA and GGA+U approximations. In the GGA we find a multi-band metallic state with remarkable inter-band nesting between two $t_{2g}$ bands of Fermi surface, which signals possible instability towards an orbital ordered insulating phase. Such broken symmetry state, although has lower energy than the underlying homogeneous metallic state, but the gap magnitude is less than the experimentally observed optical gap. Therefore we incorporate the calculated value of on-site Coulomb repulsion U on orbital ordered state. We find that symmetry breaking and Coulomb correlations cooperate together to stabilize the system and give an insulating orbital ordered state, with the gap magnitude very close to the experimental value. We propose this method as a possible indication of orbital ordering in LDA and GGA calculations. We check our method with known examples of LiVO$_2$ and LaMnO$_3$.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl

Correlation Entropy of an Interacting Quantum Field and H-theorem for the O(N) Model

Following the paradigm of Boltzmann-BBGKY we propose a correlation entropy (of the nth order) for an interacting quantum field, obtained by `slaving' (truncation with causal factorization) of the higher (n+1 th) order correlation functions in the Schwinger-Dyson system of equations. This renders an otherwise closed system effectively open where dissipation arises. The concept of correlation entropy is useful for addressing issues related to thermalization. As a small yet important step in that direction we prove an H-theorem for the correlation entropy of a quantum mechanical O(N) model with a Closed Time Path Two Particle Irreducible Effective Action at the level of Next-to-Leading-Order large N approximation. This model may be regarded as a field theory in $0$ space dimensions.Comment: 22 page

Does Media Affect Learning: Where Are We Now?

It is time to extinguish the argument as to whether or not the media of 1983 could, should or would affect learning outcomes. The technological advances that have occurred in the 20 years since Clark sparked the debate and Kozma fanned the flames have made the question irrelevant. High-speed, portable, reasonably priced computers, the Internet, and the World Wide Web have changed the face of how, when, and where learning occurs. The media of 2004 does affect learning. The question is no longer if; the question is how

3D visualisation of voids in grapevine flowers and berries using X‐ray micro computed tomography

First published: 06 January 2021Background and Aim: X-ray micro computed tomography (micro-CT) is a non-destructive 3D imaging technique that has been applied to plant morphology and anatomical studies to gain a better understanding of physiological phenomena in vivo. It is particularly useful for imaging voids in undisturbed fragile tissues and therefore may be applied to the delicate flowers and soft berries of Vitis vinifera. The characterisation of gas spaces and channels can offer insights into the process of tissue aeration and this may have implications on cell function and vitality. We assessed the use of micro-CT to visualise voids within these reproductive organs. Methods and Results: The internal structures of flowers and berries were captured through rapid micro-CT scanning and subsequently were recreated in 3D using image processing. The relative positions of the developing flower parts encased within the flower cap were visualised. Low density/porous tissue was identified within the pedicel and receptacle, con- necting the lenticels with the interior of the berry. Voids were present in the proximal mesocarp of mature berries forming a ‘detachment zone’ in both seeded and seedless cultivars. Voids permeated the mesocarp of mature seedless grape cultivars, but not seeded grapes. Conclusion: Micro-CT offers new insights regarding the distribution of voids on the morphology and compositional hetero- geneity of organs that are difficult to dissect and/or view with light microscopy. Significance of the Study: A better understanding of the physiology and functionality of grapevine reproductive tissues may be achieved by 3D visualisation of internal structure in vivo.Z. Xiao, T. Stait-Gardner, S.A. Willis, W.S. Price, F.J. Moroni, V. Pagay … et al

Transformation elastodynamics and active exterior acoustic cloaking

This chapter consists of three parts. In the first part we recall the elastodynamic equations under coordinate transformations. The idea is to use coordinate transformations to manipulate waves propagating in an elastic material. Then we study the effect of transformations on a mass-spring network model. The transformed networks can be realized with "torque springs", which are introduced here and are springs with a force proportional to the displacement in a direction other than the direction of the spring terminals. Possible homogenizations of the transformed networks are presented, with potential applications to cloaking. In the second and third parts we present cloaking methods that are based on cancelling an incident field using active devices which are exterior to the cloaked region and that do not generate significant fields far away from the devices. In the second part, the exterior cloaking problem for the Laplace equation is reformulated as the problem of polynomial approximation of analytic functions. An explicit solution is given that allows to cloak larger objects at a fixed distance from the cloaking device, compared to previous explicit solutions. In the third part we consider the active exterior cloaking problem for the Helmholtz equation in 3D. Our method uses the Green's formula and an addition theorem for spherical outgoing waves to design devices that mimic the effect of the single and double layer potentials in Green's formula.Comment: Submitted as a chapter for the volume "Acoustic metamaterials: Negative refraction, imaging, lensing and cloaking", Craster and Guenneau ed., Springe

Photoproduction of mesons off nuclei

Recent results for the photoproduction of mesons off nuclei are reviewed. These experiments have been performed for two major lines of research related to the properties of the strong interaction. The investigation of nucleon resonances requires light nuclei as targets for the extraction of the isospin composition of the electromagnetic excitations. This is done with quasi-free meson photoproduction off the bound neutron and supplemented with the measurement of coherent photoproduction reactions, serving as spin and/or isospin filters. Furthermore, photoproduction from light and heavy nuclei is a very efficient tool for the study of the interactions of mesons with nuclear matter and the in-medium properties of hadrons. Experiments are currently rapidly developing due to the combination of high quality tagged (and polarized) photon beams with state-of-the-art 4pi detectors and polarized targets