74 research outputs found

    Second order gauge invariant gravitational perturbations of a Kerr black hole

    Full text link
    We investigate higher than the first order gravitational perturbations in the Newman-Penrose formalism. Equations for the Weyl scalar ψ4,\psi_4, representing outgoing gravitational radiation, can be uncoupled into a single wave equation to any perturbative order. For second order perturbations about a Kerr black hole, we prove the existence of a first and second order gauge (coordinates) and tetrad invariant waveform, ψI\psi_I, by explicit construction. This waveform is formed by the second order piece of ψ4\psi_4 plus a term, quadratic in first order perturbations, chosen to make ψI\psi_I totally invariant and to have the appropriate behavior in an asymptotically flat gauge. ψI\psi_I fulfills a single wave equation of the form TψI=S,{\cal T}\psi_I=S, where T{\cal T} is the same wave operator as for first order perturbations and SS is a source term build up out of (known to this level) first order perturbations. We discuss the issues of imposition of initial data to this equation, computation of the energy and momentum radiated and wave extraction for direct comparison with full numerical approaches to solve Einstein equations.Comment: 19 pages, REVTEX. Some misprints corrected and changes to improve presentation. Version to appear in PR

    A comparison of flare forecasting methods. II. Benchmarks, metrics and performance results for operational solar flare forecasting systems

    Get PDF
    YesSolar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology (Barnes et al. 2016, Paper I), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to – for the first time – directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the “no skill” level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019, Paper III), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in (Park et al. 2019, Paper IV). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks, and today’s performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared

    Age-Related Differences in Socio-demographic and Behavioral Determinants of HIV Testing and Counseling in HPTN 043/NIMH Project Accept

    Get PDF
    Youth represent a large proportion of new HIV infections worldwide, yet their utilization of HIV testing and counseling (HTC) remains low. Using the post-intervention, cross-sectional, population-based household survey done in 2011 as part of HPTN 043/NIMH Project Accept, a cluster-randomized trial of community mobilization and mobile HTC in South Africa (Soweto and KwaZulu Natal), Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Thailand, we evaluated age-related differences among socio-demographic and behavioral determinants of HTC in study participants by study arm, site, and gender. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed using complete individual data from 13,755 participants with recent HIV testing (prior 12 months) as the outcome. Youth (18–24 years) was not predictive of recent HTC, except for high-risk youth with multiple concurrent partners, who were less likely (aOR 0.75; 95% CI 0.61–0.92) to have recently been tested than youth reporting a single partner. Importantly, the intervention was successful in reaching men with site specific success ranging from aOR 1.27 (95% CI 1.05–1.53) in South Africa to aOR 2.30 in Thailand (95% CI 1.85–2.84). Finally, across a diverse range of settings, higher education (aOR 1.67; 95% CI 1.42, 1.96), higher socio-economic status (aOR 1.21; 95% CI 1.08–1.36), and marriage (aOR 1.55; 95% CI 1.37–1.75) were all predictive of recent HTC, which did not significantly vary across study arm, site, gender or age category (18–24 vs. 25–32 years)

    Non-perennial Mediterranean rivers in Europe: Status, pressures, and challenges for research and management

    Full text link
    corecore