Inflation targeting and private sector forecasts

Transparency is one of the biggest innovations in central bank policy of the past quarter century. Modern central bankers believe that they should be as clear about their objectives and actions as possible. However, is greater transparency always beneficial? Recent work suggests that when private agents have diverse sources of information, public information can cause them to overreact to the signals from the central bank, leading the economy to be too sensitive to common forecast errors. Greater transparency could be destabilizing. While this theoretical result has clear intuitive appeal, it turns on a combination of assumptions and conditions, so it remains to be established that it is of empirical relevance. ; In this paper we study the degree to which increased information about monetary policy might lead to individuals coordinating their forecasts. Specifically, we estimate a series of simple models to measure the impact of inflation targeting on the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. Using a panel data set that includes 15 countries over 20 years we find no convincing evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime leads to a reduction in the dispersion of private sector forecasts of inflation. While for some specifications adoption of inflation target does seem to reduce the standard deviation of inflation forecasts, the impact is rarely precise and always small.

Addressing the needs of international postgraduate students: the role of social capital

Self-evidently, international students are likely to have considerable informational and social needs when coming to study in the UK. This paper reports the findings of a small study of such needs among international postgraduate students in the School of Health Sciences. It was an interview study, with twelve students participating. Though the study was designed to support the creation of an online resource, the findings suggest that meeting those needs satisfactorily requires a multi-faceted approach. Both face-to-face and online processes are needed to help students to develop the social capital necessary to success in undertaking the course, getting to know the university, and adjusting to life in England

Extended flight evaluation of a near-term pitch active control system

Fuel savings can be achieved by moving the center of gravity of an aircraft aft which reduces the static stability margin and consequently the trim drag. However, flying qualities of an aircraft with relaxed static stability can be significantly degraded. The flying qualities can be restored by using a pitch active control system (PACS). This report documents the work accomplished during a follow-on program (see NASA CR-165951 for initial program report) to perform extended flight tests of a near-term PACS. The program included flying qualities analyses, piloted flight simulation tests, aircraft preparation and flight tests to demonstrate that the near-term PACS provided good flying qualities within the linear static stability envelope to a negative 3% static stability margin

DEveloping a Complex Intervention for DEteriorating Patients using Theoretical Modelling (DECIDE study): study protocol

AIM: To develop a theory-based complex intervention (targeting nursing staff), to enhance enablers and overcome barriers to enacting expected behaviour when monitoring patients and responding to abnormal vital signs that signal deterioration. DESIGN: A mixed method design including structured observations on hospital wards, field notes, brief, un-recorded interviews and semi-structured interviews to inform the development of an intervention to enhance practice. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with nursing staff using a topic guide informed by the Theoretical Domains Framework. Semi-structured interviews will be transcribed verbatim and coded deductively into the 14 Theoretical Domains Framework domains and then inductively into 'belief statements'. Priority domains will be identified and mapped to appropriate behaviour change techniques. Intervention content and mode of delivery (how behaviour change techniques are operationalised) will be developed using nominal groups, during which participants (clinicians) will rank behaviour change techniques /mode of delivery combinations according to acceptability and feasibility. Findings will be synthesised to develop an intervention manual. DISCUSSION: Despite being a priority for clinicians, researchers and policymakers for two decades, 'sub-optimal care' of the deteriorating ward patient persists. Existing interventions have been largely educational (i.e., targeting assumed knowledge deficits) with limited evidence that they change staff behaviour. Staff behaviour when monitoring and responding to abnormal vital signs is likely influenced by a range of mediators that includes barriers and enablers. IMPACT: Systematically applying theory and evidence-based methods, will result in the specification of an intervention which is more likely to result in behaviour change and can be tested empirically in future research. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Dipole-dipole interaction between orthogonal dipole moments in time-dependent geometries

In two nearby atoms, the dipole-dipole interaction can couple transitions with orthogonal dipole moments. This orthogonal coupling accounts for a number of interesting effects, but strongly depends on the geometry of the setup. Here, we discuss several setups of interest where the geometry is not fixed, such as particles in a trap or gases, by averaging over different sets of geometries. Two averaging methods are compared. In the first method, it is assumed that the internal electronic evolution is much faster than the change of geometry, whereas in the second, it is vice versa. We find that the orthogonal coupling typically survives even extensive averaging over different geometries, albeit with qualitatively different results for the two averaging methods. Typically, one- and two-dimensional averaging ranges modelling, e.g., low-dimensional gases, turn out to be the most promising model systems.Comment: 11 pages, 14 figure

Using food intake records to estimate compliance with the Eatwell plate dietary guidelines

This work was supported by the Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Division. The original studies, from which the current data were taken, were funded by the Food Standards Agency, UK, and the Biscuit, Cake, Chocolate and Confectionery Association, London, UK.Peer reviewedPostprin

Cytokine gene polymorphisms in preterm infants with necrotising enterocolitis: genetic association study

BACKGROUND The inflammatory cytokine cascade is implicated in the pathogenesis of necrotising enterocolitis (NEC). Genetic association studies of cytokine polymorphisms may help to detect molecular mechanisms that are causally related to the disease process. AIM To examine associations between the common genetic variants in candidate inflammatory cytokine genes and NEC in preterm infants. METHODS Multi-centre case-control and genetic association study. DNA samples were collected from 50 preterm infants with NEC and 50 controls matched for gestational age and ethnic group recruited to a multi-centre case-control study. Ten candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms in cytokines previously associated with infectious or inflammatory diseases were genotyped. The findings were included in random-effects meta-analyses with data from previous genetic association studies. RESULTS All allele distributions were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. None of the studied cytokine polymorphisms was significantly associated with NEC. Four previous genetic association studies of cytokine polymorphisms and NEC in preterm infants were found. Meta-analyses were possible for several single-nucleotide polymorphisms. These increased the precision of the estimates of effect size but did not reveal any significant associations. CONCLUSIONS The available data are not consistent with more than modest associations between these candidate cytokine variant alleles and NEC in preterm infants. Data from future association studies of these polymorphisms may be added to the meta-analyses to obtain more precise estimates of effects sizes.The study was funded by Tenovus (Scotland)

Brief of Law Professors as Amicus Curiae in Support of Respondent

Inventors lacking assurance of a market, or even the right to practice patented inventions, face considerable risk. Those who qualify for patents, in return for disclosure, receive only the assistance of the courts in excluding others from economic exploitation of their inventions. Already subject to many legislative and judicial limitations, patents should not be further subject to the functional equivalent of private inverse condemnation without congressional action

Maternal versus paternal physical and emotional abuse, affect regulation and risk for depression from adolescence to early adulthood

Objective: Current research has established that depression is a common outcome of child abuse. The current study extends previous research by examining the relationship between parental emotional and physical abuse and adolescents’ depressive symptoms using a prospective longitudinal design. We anticipated that this relationship would be mediated through problems in affect regulation, consistent with the view that the presence of abuse in the parent–child relationship would derail the development of adaptive affect regulation. Finally, we further examined gender-linked transmission of risk by considering both the gender of the parent perpetrating abuse and the gender of the adolescent. Methods: A sample of high-risk youth (N = 179; 46% female) from juvenile justice and clinical settings completed assessments regarding maternal and paternal physical and emotional abuse, affect dysregulation and depressive symptoms during three time points over the course of five years. Results: The relationship between maternal abuse and depressive symptoms was partially mediated through affect dysregulation at Time 1 and fully mediated at Time 2. In addition, adolescents’ reports of maternal abuse at Time 1 predicted their depressive symptoms in early adulthood even after accounting for the partial mediating role of affect dysregulation at each of the three timepoints of the study. It was also found that paternal abuse was related to depressive symptoms through an indirect relationship with affect dysregulation for males, but not females. Conclusion: These findings suggest that adolescence may be a sensitive developmental period wherein abuse experiences have profound direct and mediated influences on the risk for later depression. Adolescents or young adults who have experienced abuse may benefit from interventions designed to build affect regulation skills

Privileged Communications between Counsel and the Corporate Client

At present inconsistent lower federal appellate court decisions governing the use of the attorney-client privilege and work-product doctrine apply to the discovery of communications between counsel and the corporate client. Because of the distinctions that have developed in the application of the corporate attorney-client privilege and work-product doctrine due to the unique factual settings in which the issues have arisen, prior case law may not be totally preempted by the Supreme Court decision in Upjohn. This article will explore some of these divergent opinions to determine the probable effect that the Court\u27s decision in Upjohn will have upon communications between counsel and the corporate client