Intermittency and obsolescence:A Croston method with linear decay

Only two forecasting methods have been designed specifically for intermittent demand with possible demand obsolescence: Teunter–Syntetos–Babai (TSB) and Hyperbolic-Exponential Smoothing (HES). When an item becomes obsolete the TSB forecasts decay exponentially while those of HES decay hyperbolically. Both types of decay continue to predict nonzero demand indefinitely, and it would be preferable for forecasts to become zero after a finite time. We describe a third method, called Exponential Smoothing with Linear Decay, that decays linearly to zero in a finite time, is asymptotically the best method for handling obsolescence, and performs well in experiments on real and synthetic data

Extragalactic infrared spectroscopy

The spectra of galaxies in the near infrared atmospheric transmission windows are explored. Emission lines were detected due to molecular hydrogen, atomic hydrogen recombination lines, a line attributed to FEII, and a broad CO absorption feature. Lines due to H2 and FEII are especially strong in interacting and merging galaxies, but they were also detected in Seyferts and normal spirals. These lines appear to be shock excited. Multi-aperture measurements show that they emanate from regions as large as 15 kpc. It is argued that starbursts provide the most plausible and consistent model for the excitation of these lines, but the changes of relative line intensity of various species with aperture suggest that other excitation mechanisms are also operating in the outer regions of these galaxies

A grouping genetic algorithm for joint stratification and sample allocation designs

Finding the optimal stratification and sample size in univariate and multivariate sample design is hard when the population frame is large. There are alternative ways of modelling and solving this problem, and one of the most natural uses genetic algorithms (GA) combined with the Bethel-Chromy evaluation algorithm. The GA iteratively searches for the minimum sample size necessary to meet precision constraints in partitionings of atomic strata created by the Cartesian product of auxiliary variables. We point out a drawback with classical GAs when applied to the grouping problem, and propose a new GA approach using “grouping” genetic operators instead of traditional operators. Experiments show a significant improvement in solution quality for similar computational effort

Methods for Estimating Fluxes and Absorptions of Faint X-ray Sources

X-ray sources with very few counts can be identified with low-noise X-ray detectors such as ACIS onboard the Chandra X-ray Observatory. These sources are often too faint for parametric spectral modeling using well-established methods such as fitting with XSPEC. We discuss the estimation of apparent and intrinsic broad-band X-ray fluxes and soft X-ray absorption from gas along the line of sight to these sources, using nonparametric methods. Apparent flux is estimated from the ratio of the source count rate to the instrumental effective area averaged over the chosen band. Absorption, intrinsic flux, and errors on these quantities are estimated from comparison of source photometric quantities with those of high S/N spectra that were simulated using spectral models characteristic of the class of astrophysical sources under study. The concept of this method is similar to the long-standing use of color-magnitude diagrams in optical and infrared astronomy, with X-ray median energy replacing color index and X-ray source counts replacing magnitude. Our nonparametric method is tested against the apparent spectra of 2000 faint sources in the Chandra observation of the rich young stellar cluster in the M17 HII region. We show that the intrinsic X-ray properties can be determined with little bias and reasonable accuracy using these observable photometric quantities without employing often uncertain and time-consuming methods of non-linear parametric spectral modeling. Our method is calibrated for thermal spectra characteristic of stars in young stellar clusters, but recalibration should be possible for some other classes of faint X-ray sources such as extragalactic AGN.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal. 39 pages, 15 figure

Physical Properties of the X-ray Luminous SN 1978K in NGC 1313 from Multiwavelength Observations

We update the light curves from the X-ray, optical, and radio bandpasses which we have assembled over the past decade, and present two observations in the ultraviolet using the Hubble Space Telescope Faint Object Spectrograph. The HRI X-ray light curve is constant within the errors over the entire observation period. This behavior is confirmed in the ASCA GIS data obtained in 1993 and 1995. In the ultraviolet, we detected Ly-alpha, the [Ne IV] 2422/2424 A doublet, the Mg II doublet at 2800 A, and a line at ~3190 A we attribute to He I 3187. Only the Mg II and He I lines are detected at SN1978K's position. The optical light curve is formally constant within the errors, although a slight upward trend may be present. The radio light curve continues its steep decline. The longer time span of our radio observations compared to previous studies shows that SN1978K is in the same class of highly X-ray and radio-luminous supernovae as SN1986J and SN1988Z. The [Ne IV] emission is spatially distant from the location of SN1978K and originates in the pre-shocked matter. The Mg II doublet flux ratio implies the quantity of line optical depth times density of ~10^14 cm^-3 for its emission region. The emission site must lie in the shocked gas.Comment: 32 pages, 13 figs; LaTeX with AASTEXv5; paper accepted, scheduled for AJ, Dec 199

A Multiwavelength Study of the Extreme AGN J2310-437

We present new X-ray, radio, and optical data for the unusual galaxy/cluster system J2310-437. Our results confirm the presence of an active nucleus, and suggest an interpretation as an anomalous BL Lac object of bulk relativistic Doppler factor < 2, with an optically deficient radio-to-X-ray spectrum. The radio, optical, and soft X-ray flux densities could lie along a single power-law function, lacking the curvature typical of BL Lac objects. Compared with other known sources that may have comparable multifrequency spectra, J2310-437 is the most extreme. Its low isotropic optical/UV radiation is consistent with the intensity of external photons governing the electron spectral break through Compton cooling; in this source the external photon density would be too low to produce a spectral break below the X-ray.Comment: 19 pages, including 10 figures, using emulateapj.sty and apjfonts.sty. To appear in the Ap

Probing the X-Ray Binary Populations of the Ring Galaxy NGC 1291

We present Chandra studies of the X-ray binary (XRB) populations in the bulge and ring regions of the ring galaxy NGC 1291. We detect 169 X-ray point sources in the galaxy, 75 in the bulge and 71 in the ring, utilizing the four available Chandra observations totaling an effective exposure of 179 ks. We report photometric properties of these sources in a point-source catalog. There are ~40% of the bulge sources and ~25% of the ring sources showing >3\sigma long-term variability in their X-ray count rate. The X-ray colors suggest that a significant fraction of the bulge (~75%) and ring (~65%) sources are likely low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). The spectra of the nuclear source indicate that it is a low-luminosity AGN with moderate obscuration; spectral variability is observed between individual observations. We construct 0.3-8.0 keV X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) for the bulge and ring XRB populations, taking into account the detection incompleteness and background AGN contamination. We reach 90% completeness limits of ~1.5\times10^{37} and ~2.2\times10^{37} erg/s for the bulge and ring populations, respectively. Both XLFs can be fit with a broken power-law model, and the shapes are consistent with those expected for populations dominated by LMXBs. We perform detailed population synthesis modeling of the XRB populations in NGC 1291, which suggests that the observed combined XLF is dominated by an old LMXB population. We compare the bulge and ring XRB populations, and argue that the ring XRBs are associated with a younger stellar population than the bulge sources, based on the relative overdensity of X-ray sources in the ring, the generally harder X-ray color of the ring sources, the overabundance of luminous sources in the combined XLF, and the flatter shape of the ring XLF.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap