Seasonal Temperature Forecasts as Products of Antecedent Linear and Spatial Temperature Arrays

Our objective is to evaluate the potential for extracting the maximum information contained in antecedent temperature patterns that operationally could be used in formulating winter seasonal forecasts in the United States. In particular, examination of the predictability of winter temperatures given autumn temperatures is made using derived contingency tables, discriminant equations of antecedent principal components, and canonical correlation analysis. Contingency tables were constructed based on tercile classifications of a seventy-five-year dependent record (1895-1969). Testing of an independent data period (1970-78) using these tables produced winter forecasts with no appreciable skill in the aggregate (-0.04). Discriminant analysis derived linear combinations of the five principal components of the antecedent seasonal (autumn) temperatures to distinguish between specific terciles of the predictand season (winter). Despite encouraging results for the dependent period, forecast skill for the independent test period achieved no significant score (-0.04). Unfortunately, both of these forms of analysis suffer imposed spatial limitations which restrict the scope of our investigation. Canonical correlation analysis is capable of relating the total spatial variance of fall temperatures to that of the winter temperatures for the entire United States. In this study, the technique was used to isolate seasonal patterns in winter temperature data that are correlated in time with fall temperature patterns for the same region. Summation of the first 20 canonical variate pairs suggests that autumn and winter temperatures over the continental United States are not closely related to one another

Influence of ice formation on the dynamic and thermodynamic properties of aqueous solutions

Water dynamics in solutions with biological or non-biological solutes has been intensely studied when both components (solvent and solute) are amorphous. Here, we apply broadband dielectric spectroscopy combined with calorimetric measurements to analyze the dynamics of the aqueous solutions tri-propylene glycol (3PG) and ε-poly (lysine) (ε-PLL), after their water becomes semi-crystalline. Various crystallization levels were explored by conducting experiments with different annealing times at temperatures above the glass transition temperature (Tg). We find that the amount of ice depends on both the time and temperature of the annealing, and that this, in turn, affects Tg and dynamics of the amorphous part of the samples. However, it should be noted that the observed differences are relatively small for the degrees of crystallinity we have studied (up to about 26 wt% of the water). This also implies that the dynamic crossover of the water relaxation from a high temperature non-Arrhenius behavior to a low temperature Arrhenius dependence is unaffected by the partial crystallization and still occurs as a single crossover at the calorimetric Tg. Thus, we cannot detect two different crossovers, as commonly observed for other types of two-component systems, such as two glass formers

Cause of the fragile-to-strong transition observed in water confined in C-S-H gel

In this study, the rotational dynamics of hydration water confined in calcium-silicate-hydrate (C-S-H) gel with a water content of 22 wt.% was studied by broadband dielectric spectroscopy in broad temperature (110-300 K) and frequency (10(-1)-10(8) Hz) ranges. The C-S-H gel was used as a 3D confining system for investigating the possible existence of a fragile-to-strong transition for water around 220 K. Such transition was observed at 220 K in a previous study [Y. Zhang, M. Lagi, F. Ridi, E. Fratini, P. Baglioni, E. Mamontov and S. H. Chen, J. Phys.: Condens. Matter 20, 502101 (2008)] on a similar system, and it was there associated with a hidden critical point of bulk water. However, based on the experimental results presented here, there is no sign of a fragile-to-strong transition for water confined in C-S-H gel. Instead, the fragile-to-strong transition can be explained by a merging of two different relaxation processes at about 220 K. (C) 2013 AIP Publishing LLC

Effect of hydration on the dielectric properties of C-S-H gel

9 páginas, 7 figuras, 1 tabla.-- Trabajo presentado a la "Gordon Research Conference: Water & Aqueous Solutions" celebrada en EE.UU. del 8 al 13 de agosto de 2010.The behavior of water dynamics confined in hydrated calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) gel has been investigated using broadband dielectric spectroscopy (BDS; 10−2–106 Hz) in the low-temperature range (110–250 K). Different water contents in C-S-H gel were explored (from 6 to 15 wt%) where water remains amorphous for all the studied temperatures. Three relaxation processes were found by BDS (labeled 1 to 3 from the fastest to the slowest), two of them reported here for the first time. We show that a strong change in the dielectric relaxation of C-S-H gel occurs with increasing hydration, especially at a hydration level in which a monolayer of water around the basic units of cement materials is predicted by different structural models. Below this hydration level both processes 2 and 3 have an Arrhenius temperature dependence. However, at higher hydration level, a non-Arrhenius behavior temperature dependence for process 3 over the whole accessible temperature range and, a crossover from low-temperature Arrhenius to high-temperature non-Arrhenius behavior for process 2 are observed. Characteristics of these processes will be discussed in this work.Authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Consolider (CSD2006-00053) and Etortek program. S.C. gratefully acknowledge the support of CSIC (200860I021) and S.C. S.A-I, A.A and J.C. gratefully acknowledge the support of the DYNACOP program and the Basque Government, and project IT-436-07 and the Spanish Ministry of Education, project MAT-22007-63681.Peer reviewe

Effect of hydration on the dielectric properties of C-S-H gel

9 páginas, 7 figuras, 1 tabla.-- Trabajo presentado a la "Gordon Research Conference: Water & Aqueous Solutions" celebrada en EE.UU. del 8 al 13 de agosto de 2010.The behavior of water dynamics confined in hydrated calcium silicate hydrate (C-S-H) gel has been investigated using broadband dielectric spectroscopy (BDS; 10−2–106 Hz) in the low-temperature range (110–250 K). Different water contents in C-S-H gel were explored (from 6 to 15 wt%) where water remains amorphous for all the studied temperatures. Three relaxation processes were found by BDS (labeled 1 to 3 from the fastest to the slowest), two of them reported here for the first time. We show that a strong change in the dielectric relaxation of C-S-H gel occurs with increasing hydration, especially at a hydration level in which a monolayer of water around the basic units of cement materials is predicted by different structural models. Below this hydration level both processes 2 and 3 have an Arrhenius temperature dependence. However, at higher hydration level, a non-Arrhenius behavior temperature dependence for process 3 over the whole accessible temperature range and, a crossover from low-temperature Arrhenius to high-temperature non-Arrhenius behavior for process 2 are observed. Characteristics of these processes will be discussed in this work.Authors gratefully acknowledge the support of Consolider (CSD2006-00053) and Etortek program. S.C. gratefully acknowledge the support of CSIC (200860I021) and S.C. S.A-I, A.A and J.C. gratefully acknowledge the support of the DYNACOP program and the Basque Government, and project IT-436-07 and the Spanish Ministry of Education, project MAT-22007-63681.Peer reviewe

Categorizing natural disaster damage assessment using satellite-based geospatial techniques

Remote sensing of a natural disaster's damage offers an exciting backup and/or alternative to traditional means of on-site damage assessment. Although necessary for complete assessment of damage areas, ground-based damage surveys conducted in the aftermath of natural hazard passage can sometimes be potentially complicated due to on-site difficulties (e.g., interaction with various authorities and emergency services) and hazards (e.g., downed power lines, gas lines, etc.), the need for rapid mobilization (particularly for remote locations), and the increasing cost of rapid physical transportation of manpower and equipment. Satellite image analysis, because of its global ubiquity, its ability for repeated independent analysis, and, as we demonstrate here, its ability to verify on-site damage assessment provides an interesting new perspective and investigative aide to researchers. Using one of the strongest tornado events in US history, the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado, as a case example, we digitized the tornado damage path and co-registered the damage path using pre- and post-Landsat Thematic Mapper image data to perform a damage assessment. We employed several geospatial approaches, specifically the Getis index, Geary's <i>C</i>, and two lacunarity approaches to categorize damage characteristics according to the original Fujita tornado damage scale (F-scale). Our results indicate strong relationships between spatial indices computed within a local window and tornado F-scale damage categories identified through the ground survey. Consequently, linear regression models, even incorporating just a single band, appear effective in identifying F-scale damage categories using satellite imagery. This study demonstrates that satellite-based geospatial techniques can effectively add spatial perspectives to natural disaster damages, and in particular for this case study, tornado damages

q-exponential, Weibull, and q-Weibull distributions: an empirical analysis

In a comparative study, the q-exponential and Weibull distributions are employed to investigate frequency distributions of basketball baskets, cyclone victims, brand-name drugs by retail sales, and highway length. In order to analyze the intermediate cases, a distribution, the q-Weibull one, which interpolates the q-exponential and Weibull ones, is introduced. It is verified that the basketball baskets distribution is well described by a q-exponential, whereas the cyclone victims and brand-name drugs by retail sales ones are better adjusted by a Weibull distribution. On the other hand, for highway length the q-exponential and Weibull distributions do not give satisfactory adjustment, being necessary to employ the q-Weibull distribution. Furthermore, the introduction of this interpolating distribution gives an illumination from the point of view of the stretched exponential against inverse power law (q-exponential with q > 1) controversy.Comment: 6 pages, Latex. To appear in Physica

New WMO certified megaflash lightning extremes for flash distance (768 km) and duration (17.01 seconds) recorded from space

Initial global extremes in lightning duration and horizontal distance were established in 2017 (Lang et al. 2017) by an international panel of atmospheric lightning scientists and engineers assembled by the WMO. The subsequent launch of NOAA’s latest GOES-16/17 satellites with their Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GLMs) enabled extreme lightning to be monitored continuously over the western hemisphere up to 55° latitude for the first time. As a result, the former lightning extremes were more than doubled in 2019 to 709 km for distance and 16.730 s for duration (Peterson et al. 2020). Continued detection and analysis of lightning “megaflashes” (Sequin, 2021) has now revealed two flashes that even exceed those 2019 records. As part of the ongoing work of the WMO in detection and documentation of global weather extremes (e.g., El Fadli et al. 2013; Merlone et al. 2010), an international WMO evaluation committee was created to critically adjudicate these two GLM megaflash cases as new records for extreme lightning.We thank S. A. Rutledge and two other reviewers for their valuable comments. M. J. Peterson was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy through the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program under project number 20200529ECR. Los Alamos National Laboratory is operated by Triad National Security, LLC, for the National Nuclear Security Administration of U.S. Department of Energy (Contract 89233218CNA000001). T. Logan supported by a NOAA Grant NA16OAR4320115 “Lightning Mapper Array Operation in Oklahoma and the Texas Gulf Coast Region to Aid Preparation for the GOES-R GLM.” I. Kolmasova was supported by GACR Grant 20-09671. S. D. Zhang was supported by a NOAA Grant NNH19ZDA001N-ESROGSS. The participation of J. Montanya in this work is supported by research Grant ESP2017-86263-C4-2-R funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by “ERDF A way of making Europe,” by the “European Union”; and Grants PID2019-109269RB-C42 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Molecular architecture of a dynamin adaptor: implications for assembly of mitochondrial fission complexes

Structural and functional studies of the Mdv1 dimer reveal how this mitochondria-associated adaptor protein orients and stabilizes the assembly of dynamins on membranes to promote mitochondrial fission