Assessment of Long Term Impacts of Cadmium and Lead Load to Agricultural Soils in the Upper Elbe and Oder River Basins

This report investigates effects of long term load of two heavy metals, cadmium and lead to agricultural soils for a project area in Central Europe. The time frame for the historic analysis is 1955 to 1994. The major source of lead is atmospheric deposition. In the case of cadmium, besides atmospheric deposition, agricultural activities, such as P-fertilizer and manuring, are additional sources of heavy metal input to agricultural soils. Extremely high depositions that were measured in a "hot spot" region in the project area are included in the analysis. A soil model is used to perform a quantitative analysis of potential accumulation or release of cumulative heavy metal loads. A GIS database enables us to undertake a regional analysis. Potential future risks are addressed in a scenario approach covering the time frame 1995 to 2050. For the majority of the project area there was no significant increase in cadmium and particularly lead soil concentration compared to background values and guidelines. The parts of the project area which had the highest cumulative cadmium deposition historic cadmium accumulation may be of concern. However these assessments related to long term suitability for agricultural food production depend on environmental criteria and the time frames taken into account. Locally, in hot spot areas, atmospheric deposition were and still are much higher and soil guideline values may be exceeded within 10 to 50 years. The cadmium mass balance for the project area covering the period 1955 to 1994 suggests that from the cumulative load of 3062t of cadmium (about two thirds from atmospheric deposition and one third from agricultural sources), one third is lost (836t) and two thirds are accumulated in the soil (2226t). Estimates of future atmospheric cadmium and lead deposition are low compared to historic depositions. Cumulative cadmium deposition during 1991 and 2010 is only 10 to 40% of the cumulative deposition during 1970 and 1990. The average lead deposition in 2010 is only 10% of the average deposition in the 70s or 80s. Due to declining pH-value, triggered by the abandonment of agricultural land and/or a conversion into forest in scenario 1, major releases of cadmium are expected. Even the maximum assumed deposition is not high enough to compensate cadmium loss due to declining pH-value. The extent of decrease depends mainly on the assumed initial concentration in 1994 because cumulative future atmospheric deposition is very low compared to the cadmium already stored in the soils at present. Scenario 2 assumes intensive agricultural production until 2050. Agricultural activities are now the major source of cadmium load to the soils. In most cases a study state will be reached, the maximum delta increase over the future 55 years is 0.08mg/kg. In both scenarios lead soil concentrations are likely to decrease slightly in the future due to losses via erosion, which exceed atmospheric deposition

Aqueous Emission Factors for the Industrial Discharges of Cadmium in the Rhine River Basin in the Period 1970-1990: An Inventory

This report contains an overview of the development of aqueous point source emission factors for cadmium in the Rhine River basin in the period 1970-1988. Based on these emission factors the aqueous emissions of cadmium for different industrial activities in the basin are calculated. For some activities defining emission factors does not make sense, since their cadmium emission is determined by e.g. ore or scrap purchase policy and not by the applied process technology. The overall cadmium emission to the Rhine and to its tributaries is compared with the point source component of in-basin cadmium monitoring data. The results show reasonable agreement. Further study is required to include hydrological characteristics in a tributary-Rhine model, in order to justify the comparison of monitoring data and emission estimates. In the table below, a summary of all the calculated point source emissions in time and per branch is given. A second table provides an overview of the development of emission factors for point source emissions in the Rhine River basin in time

Land Use Change in Europe- Scenarios for a Project Area in East Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic

This study identifies plausible scenarios for land use changes for a project area located at the coexistent borders of Poland, the Czech Republic and East Germany. The time frame is 1992 to 2050 with an intermediate step in 2020. The basis for the scenarios is an analysis of the driving forces for land use change in the context of the study area. The main emphasis here is on the EU's Common Agricultural Policy and trends in agriculture and forestry in the three countries of the project area. In addition former land use change, spread of urban areas, the state of mining areas, recreation and nature conservation and policies related to land use planning are of importance and therefore analyzed for each country. The direction of land use change between 1960 and present was a decrease in agricultural land and an increase in forest and 'other' area, which mainly consists of urban area and area for infrastructure. Recent changes in the Common Agricultural Policy aim at reducing overproduction an cut spending in general. The prevailing tendency is to liberalize the agricultural sector to shift from product tied payments to direct payments to farmers for social, environmental or cultural duties. Since the political changes in 1989 the three countries of the project area have undergone significant economic and structural changes. East Germany as part of Unified Germany and part of the EU has experienced the most drastic restructuring of the agricultural sector with the main feature of major job losses and production decreases, especially in the livestock sector. Similar developments, though not as radical, can be observed in Poland and the Czech Republic. The first Scenario, "Large Scale Increase of Wooded Area", anticipates the introduction of a free market economy to the agricultural sector. No more subsidies are required for agriculture. Large areas of marginal farmland have to be taken out of production. The price of land decreases. Farmers will either afforest their farmland or sell it to non-agricultural uses like urban development, recreation or nature conservation are options for farmers. A quantification for the project area foresees by 2050 a decrease of agricultural land to half of its size in 1992, a doubling of forest and an increase of 'other' area by 80%. Scenario 2, "Alternative Agricultural Products", assumes a shift from food production to nonfood products, mainly biofuel and incentives for an extensification of agricultural production. Subsidies, that are still required for the agricultural sector, will be kept. The overall policy aims at keeping the land open, avoiding uncontrolled spreading of urban development and providing prospect for development and employment in rural areas. The main characteristic of Scenario 3, "Europe as Food Exporter", is an increase in the demand for agricultural products, which by approximately 2010 triggers a increase in the world market price for food products. Reasons for this are population and wealth increase, especially in China an south east Asia, combined with environmental constraints like water or fertile land scarcity and erosion. As a result agricultural production in Europe becomes prosperous in the frame of a free market environment. No further subsidies are required for the sector. Until 2010 the development is similar to Scenario 2. Scenario 2 and 3 show only modest changes in land use patterns, but the agricultural production structure differs. Scenario 2 focuses on a mixture of food and non-food products, while in Scenario 3 all available farmland is used for food production after 2010

Emission Factors for Aqueous Industrial Cadmium Discharges to the Rhine Basin. A Historical Reconstruction of the Period 1970-1988

The report, by reviewing the relevant literature and synthesizing data on economic technologies, trade, and environmental monitoring, provides an analysis of the aqueous emissions of cadmium from industrial point sources in the Rhine Basin from 1970-1988. The report not only provides valuable input to our study of the Basin, but also demonstrates a methodology by which historical reconstructions of aqueous pollution can be attained and utilized in assessing long-term environmental trends. This historical Rhine Basin study provides a much needed database for further understanding of the institutional, political, and social factors that shaped the pollution landscape in previous decades and led to the remarkable cleanup that has occurred more recently. Such information is urgently needed for guiding policies, particularly in the newly industrialized regions of the world, such as southeast China, and in highly polluted river basins, such as in Eastern Europe

Cadmium, Zinc and Lead Load to Agricultural Land in the Upper Oder and Elbe Basins During the Period 1955-1994

This paper presents the results of an analysis on the total load of cadmium, zinc and lead to agricultural soils during the period 1955-1994. Total heavy metal load will serve as input for the soil modeling part of the wider IIASA study on "Regional Material Balance Approaches to Long Term Environmental Planning." The project area embraces the northwestern part of the Czech Republic (Bohemia and Morawia), southwestern Poland (Upper and Lower Silesia), and the south of the former G.D.R. (Sachsen, Sachsen-Anhalt, Brandenburg, Thueringen). Agricultural soils receive heavy metal via atmospheric deposition and via certain agricultural practices, the most important ones are: P-fertilizer application and manuring. Atmospheric deposition loads were derived from computations within the atmospheric modeling part of the IIASA IND Project. On the basis of a literature search focusing on the countries of the project area heavy metal concentration factors for P-fertilizer and manure were established. The fertilizer and manure application during the study period was derived from diverse statistical sources. The analysis shows the importance of regional differences and of the changes in time. This refers to both, the total load of heavy metals to the soils and the share of agricultural or atmospheric load in total load. The atmospheric load is highest in the 60s or 70s and then shows a downward trend. The highest P-fertilizer and manure application rates are in the 70s or 80s (and consequently the heavy metal load due to these practices is high). After the economic changes in 1989 there is a sharp decline in fertilizer application. The agricultural share in total load is very low in the case of lead, amounting to less than 10% during the whole period. Agricultural share in total load of cadmium and zinc varies considerable over time and shows high regional differences. For cadmium the agricultural share in total load ranges between 10 and 60 percent, in the case of zinc between 30 and 80 percent. A general feature here is, the higher the total load, the higher the share in atmospheric deposition. A preliminary mass balance for cadmium and lead in soils shows possible implications for long-term build up of heavy metals in soils. The release of Cadmium from soils via erosion and leaching contributes as so called diffuse load to total Cadmium load to rivers. The mass balance gives estimates for this diffuse load. Finally sources of uncertainties are discussed. They refer in particular to spatial variations that cannot be traced in this type of analysis. Close to major heavy metal emittents or in areas where uncontrolled sewage sludge application took place, the heavy metal load may be significantly higher than estimated in this study

Results from the Second International Module Intercomparison

The peak-watt rating is a primary indicator of PV performance. The peak power rating is the maximum electrical power that is produced when the PV device is continuously illuminated at 1000 Wm/sup-2/ total irradiance under International Electrotechnical Commission Standard 60904-2 reference spectrum, and 25 deg C cell temperature. Most manufacturers trace their peak-watt rating through calibrations performed at recognized terrestrial calibration facilities. Manufacturers typically perform intercomparisons among a set of their modules internally with other plants and among. Sometimes they have the same module measured at different calibration facilities to determine the differences in calibration. This intercomparison was to mimic this procedure and supply new thin film samples along with samples that could pose other problems. These intercomparisons sample the laboratories' everyday procedures better than a formal intercomparison where the laboratories' best procedures and data scrutiny are used

Fire analysis of steel frames with the use of artificial neural networks

The paper presents an alternative approach to the modelling of the mechanical behaviour of steel frame material when exposed to the high temperatures expected in fires. Based on a series of stress-strain curves obtained experimentally for various temperature levels, an artificial neural network (ANN) is employed in the material modelling of steel. Geometrically and materially, a non-linear analysis of plane frame structures subjected to fire is performed by FEM. The numerical results of a simply supported beam are compared with our measurements, and show a good agreement, although the temperature-displacement curves exhibit rather irregular shapes. It can be concluded that ANN is an efficient tool for modelling the material properties of steel frames in fire engineering design studies. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved