Fault‐Slip Distribution of the 1999 M_w 7.1 Hector Mine Earthquake, California, Estimated from Postearthquake Airborne LiDAR Data

The 16 October 1999 Hector Mine earthquake (M_w 7.1) was the first large earthquake for which postearthquake airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data were collected to image the fault surface rupture. In this work, we present measurements of both vertical and horizontal slip along the entire surface rupture of this earthquake based on airborne LiDAR data acquired in April 2000. We examine the details of the along‐fault slip distribution of this earthquake based on 255 horizontal and 85 vertical displacements using a 0.5 m digital elevation model derived from the LiDAR imagery. The slip measurements based on the LiDAR dataset are highest in the epicentral region, and taper in both directions, consistent with earlier findings by other works. The maximum dextral displacement measured from LiDAR imagery is 6.60±1.10  m, located about 700 m south of the highest field measurement (5.25±0.85  m). Our results also illustrate the difficulty in resolving displacements smaller than 1 m using LiDAR imagery alone. We analyze slip variation to see if it is affected by rock type and whether variations are statistically significant. This study demonstrates that a postearthquake airborne LiDAR survey can produce an along‐fault horizontal and vertical offset distribution plot of a quality comparable to a reconnaissance field survey. Although LiDAR data can provide a higher sampling density and enable rapid data analysis for documenting slip distributions, we find that, relative to field methods, it has a limited ability to resolve slip that is distributed over several fault strands across a zone. We recommend a combined approach that merges field observation with LiDAR analysis, so that the best attributes of both quantitative topographic and geological insight are utilized in concert to make best estimates of offsets and their uncertainties

Space- and time- dependent probabilities for earthquake fault systems from numerical simulations: feasibility study and first results

In weather forecasting, current and past observational data are routinely assimilated into numerical simulations to produce ensemble forecasts of future events in a process termed “model steering”. Here we describe a similar approach that is motivated by analyses of previous forecasts of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP). Our approach is adapted to the problem of earthquake forecasting using topologically realistic numerical simulations for the strike-slip fault system in California. By systematically comparing simulation data to observed paleoseismic data, a series of spatial probability density functions (PDFs) can be computed that describe the probable locations of future large earthquakes. We develop this approach and show examples of PDFs associated with magnitude M > 6.5 and M > 7.0 earthquakes in California.Peer reviewe

Documentation of surface fault rupture and ground-deformation features produced by the 4 and 5 July 2019 Mw6.4 and Mw7.1 ridgecrest earthquake sequence

The Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence occurred on 4 and 5 July 2019 within the eastern California shear zone of southern California. Both events produced extensive surface faulting and ground deformation within Indian Wells Valley and Searles Valley. In the weeks following the earthquakes, more than six dozen scientists from government, academia, and the private sector carefully documented the surface faulting and ground-deformation features. As of December 2019, we have compiled a total of more than 6000 ground observations; approximately 1500 of these simply note the presence or absence of fault rupture or ground failure, but the remainder include detailed descriptions and other documentation, including tens of thousands of photographs. More than 1100 of these observations also include quantitative field measurements of displacement sense and magnitude. These field observations were supplemented bymapping of fault rupture and ground-deformation features directly in the field as well as by interpreting the location and extent of surface faulting and ground deformation from optical imagery and geodetic image products. We identified greater than 68 km of fault rupture produced by both earthquakes aswell as numerous sites of ground deformation resulting from liquefaction or slope failure. These observations comprise a dataset that is fundamental to understanding the processes that controlled this earthquake sequence and for improving earthquake hazard estimates in the region. This article documents the types of data collected during postearthquake field investigations, the compilation effort, and the digital data products resulting from these efforts

Zircon U-Pb geochronology of the Cenozoic granitic mylonite along the Ailaoshan-Red river shear zone: New constraints on the timing of the sinistral shearing

The Ailaoshan-Red River (ASRR) shear zone in SW China represents an important discontinuity believed to have accommodated eastward extrusion of the Tibetan Plateau in response to the collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates. The onset timing and duration of the ASRR sinistral strike-slip shearing have been hotly disputed. In this paper we present new zircon LA-ICP-MS U-Pb geochronological data from six syntectonic granitic mylonite and leucosomes samples from the ASRR shear zone. Our data reveal a metamorphic age of ~40 Ma, most likely suggesting the maximum age of the shearing initiation. Rocks showing syn-kinematic signatures yield crystallization ages of 38–22 Ma, with inherited components ranging from 716 to 108 Ma. These results, together with existing geological and geochronological data, indicate that the sinistral shearing along the ASRR zone probably began at 40 Ma, mainly activated at 29–22 Ma and lasted at least to ~22 Ma. Our data suggest a continuous extrusion between the Indochina and South China blocks during ~35–17 Ma. The ASRR sinistral shearing has accommodated large scale eastward displacement of the southeastern Tibetan syntaxis, and is likely responsible for the opening of the South China Sea