Structural heterogeneity and permeability in faulted eolian sandstone: Implications for subsurface modeling of faults

We determined the structure and permeability variations of a 4 km-long normal fault by integrating surface mapping with data from five boreholes drilled through the fault (borehole to tens of meters scale). The Big Hole fault outcrops in the Jurassic Navajo Sandstone, central Utah. A total of 363.2 m of oriented drill core was recovered at two sites where fault displacement is 8 and 3-5 m. The main fault core is a narrow zone of intensely comminuted grains that is a maximum of 30 cm thick and is composed of low-porosity amalgamated deformation bands that have slip surfaces on one or both sides. Probe permeameter measurements showed a permeability decline from greater than 2000 to less than 0.1 md as the fault is approached. Whole-core analyses showed that fault core permeability is less than I md and individual deformation band permeability is about 1 md. Using these data, we calculated the bulk permeability of the fault zone. Calculated transverse permeability over length scales of 5-10 m is 30-40 md, approximately 1-4% the value of the host rock. An inverse power mean calculation (representing a fault array with complex geometry) yielded total fault-zone permeabilities of 7-57 md. The bulk fault-zone permeability is most sensitive to variations in fault core thickness, which exhibits the greatest variability of the fault components

The structure and composition of exhumed faults, and their implications for seismic processes

Field studies of faults exhumed from seismogenic depths provide useful data to constrain seismologic models of fault zone processes and properties. Data collected on the San Andreas Fault in the San Gabriel Mountains has shown that large-displacement faults consist of one to several very narrow slip zones embedded in a cataclastically deformed sheared region several meters thick. However these faults have not been buried to depths greater than 5 km. Fault zones in the Sierra Nevada, California allow us to study the microstructures resulting from the deformation mechanisms active at seismogenic depths. Syn-fault mineralization shows that these left-lateral strike-slip faults formed at 5-12 km depth. Detailed microstructural analyses of the small faults reveal that they evolved from cooling joints filled by chlorite, epidote and quartz. These joints were then reactivated to form shear faults with accompanying brittle fracture and cataclastic deformation, ultimately developing very fined-grained cataclasites and ultracataclasites. The shear-induced microstructures are developed on faults with as little as several mm of slip showing that narrow slip-surfaces develop early in the lifetime of these faults. Subsequent slip has little effect on the microstructures. The inferred similarity of deformation mechanisms in faults 10 m to 10 km long indicates that basic slip processes on the faults are scale invariant, and may be a cause for the inferred constant b-value for small earthquakes. Analysis of map-scale fault linkages and terminations indicate that linkage zones are up to 400 m wide and 1 km long, and consist of altered and fractured rocks with numerous through-going slip surfaces. Terminations are regions of numerous splay faults that have cumulative offsets approaching those of the main faults. The slip distribution and structure of the terminations and linkage zones suggest that seismic slip may propagate into these zones of enhanced toughness, and that through-going slip can occur when a sufficient linkage of faults in the zone allow slip to be transmitted

Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in N orth A merican dragonflies

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/107541/1/jane12181.pd

Downscaling Daily Maximum and Minimum Air Temperature in the Midwestern USA: A Hybrid Empirical Approach

A new hybrid empirical downscaling technique is presented and applied to assess 21st century projections of maximum and minimum daily surface air temperatures (Tmax, Tmin) over the Midwestern USA. Our approach uses multiple linear regression to downscale the seasonal variations of the mean and standard deviation of daily Tmax and Tmin and the lag-0 and lag-1 correlations between daily Tmax and Tmin based on GCM simulation of the large-scale climate. These downscaled parameters are then used as inputs to a stochastic weather generator to produce time series of the daily Tmax and Tmin at 26 surface stations, in three time periods (1990–2001, 2020–2029, and 2050–2059) based on output from two coupled GCMs (HadCM3 and CGCM2). The new technique is demonstrated to exhibit better agreement with surface observations than a transfer-function approach, particularly with respect to temperature variability. Relative to 1990–2001 values, downscaled temperature projections for 2020–2029 indicate increases that range (across stations) from 0.0 K to 1.7 K (Tmax) and 0.0 K to 1.5 K (Tmin), while increases for 2050–2059 relative to 1990–2001 range from 1.4 K to 2.4 K (Tmax) and 0.8 to 2.2K (Tmin). Although the differences between GCMs demonstrate the continuing uncertainty of GCM-based regional climate downscaling, the inclusion of weather-generator parameters represents an advancement in downscaling methodology

Predicting risk of hospitalisation: a retrospective population-based analysis in a paediatric population in Emilia-Romagna, Italy.

OBJECTIVES: Develop predictive models for a paediatric population that provide information for paediatricians and health authorities to identify children at risk of hospitalisation for conditions that may be impacted through improved patient care. DESIGN: Retrospective healthcare utilisation analysis with multivariable logistic regression models. DATA: Demographic information linked with utilisation of health services in the years 2006-2014 was used to predict risk of hospitalisation or death in 2015 using a longitudinal administrative database of 527 458 children aged 1-13 years residing in the Regione Emilia-Romagna (RER), Italy, in 2014. OUTCOME MEASURES: Models designed to predict risk of hospitalisation or death in 2015 for problems that are potentially avoidable were developed and evaluated using the C-statistic, for calibration to assess performance across levels of predicted risk, and in terms of their sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value. RESULTS: Of the 527 458 children residing in RER in 2014, 6391 children (1.21%) were hospitalised for selected conditions or died in 2015. 49 486 children (9.4%) of the population were classified in the \u27At Higher Risk\u27 group using a threshold of predicted risk \u3e2.5%. The observed risk of hospitalisation (5%) for the \u27At Higher Risk\u27 group was more than four times higher than the overall population. We observed a C-statistic of 0.78 indicating good model performance. The model was well calibrated across categories of predicted risk. CONCLUSIONS: It is feasible to develop a population-based model using a longitudinal administrative database that identifies the risk of hospitalisation for a paediatric population. The results of this model, along with profiles of children identified as high risk, are being provided to the paediatricians and other healthcare professionals providing care to this population to aid in planning for care management and interventions that may reduce their patients\u27 likelihood of a preventable, high-cost hospitalisation

NH3 in the Central 10 pc of the Galaxy I: General Morphology and Kinematic Connections Between the CND and GMCs

New VLA images of NH3 (1,1), (2,2), and (3,3) emission in the central 10 parsecs of the Galaxy trace filamentary streams of gas, several of which appear to feed the circumnuclear disk (CND). The NH3 images have a spatial resolution of 16.5''x14.5'' and have better spatial sampling than previous NH3 observations. The images show the ``southern streamer,'' ``50 km/s cloud,'' and new features including a ``western streamer'', 6 parsecs in length, and a ``northern ridge'' which connects to the CND. NH3(3,3) emission is very similar to 1.2 mm dust emission indicating that NH3 traces column density well. Ratios of the NH3(2,2) to (1,1) line intensities give an estimate of the temperature of the gas and indicate high temperatures close to the nucleus and CND. The new data cover a velocity range of 270 km/s, including all velocities observed in the CND, with a resolution of 9.8 km/s. Previous NH3 observations with higher resolution did not cover the entire range of velocities seen in the CND. The large-scale kinematics of the CND do not resemble a coherent ring or disk. We see evidence for a high velocity cloud within a projected distance of 50'' (2 pc) which is only seen in NH3(3,3) and is likely to be hot. Comparison to 6 cm continuum emission reveals that much of the NH3 emission traces the outer edges of Sgr A East and was probably pushed outward by this expanding shell. The connection between the northern ridge (which appears to be swept up by Sgr A East) and the CND indicates that Sgr A East and the CND are in close proximity to each other. Kinematic evidence for these connections is presented in this paper, while the full kinematic analysis of the central 10 pc will be presented in Paper II.Comment: 16 pages (containing 6 figures), 8 additional JPEG figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ. For full resolution images, see http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/~rmcgary/SGRA/nh3_figures.htm

The Nature of the Molecular Environment within 5 pc of the Galactic Center

We present a detailed study of molecular gas in the central 10pc of the Galaxy through spectral line observations of four rotation inversion transitions of NH3 made with the VLA. Updated line widths and NH3(1,1) opacities are presented, and temperatures, column densities, and masses are derived. We examine the impact of Sgr A East on molecular material at the Galactic center and find that there is no evidence that the expansion of this shell has moved a significant amount of the 50 km/s GMC. The western streamer, however, shows strong indications that it is composed of material swept-up by the expansion of Sgr A East. Using the mass and kinematics of the western streamer, we calculate an energy of E=(2-9)x10^{51} ergs for the progenitor explosion and conclude that Sgr A East was most likely produced by a single supernova. The temperature structure of molecular gas in the central ~20pc is also analyzed in detail. We find that molecular gas has a ``two-temperature'' structure similar to that measured by Huttemeister et al. (2003a) on larger scales. The largest observed line ratios, however, cannot be understood in terms of a two-temperature model, and most likely result from absorption of NH3(3,3) emission by cool surface layers of clouds. By comparing the observed NH3 (6,6)-to-(3,3) line ratios, we disentangle three distinct molecular features within a projected distance of 2pc from Sgr A*. Gas associated with the highest line ratios shows kinematic signatures of both rotation and expansion. The southern streamer shows no significant velocity gradients and does not appear to be directly associated with either the circumnuclear disk or the nucleus. The paper concludes with a discussion of the line-of-sight arrangement of the main features in the central 10pc.Comment: 51 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ. Due to size limitations, some of the images have been cut from this version. A complete, color PS or PDF version can be downloaded from http://www.astro.columbia.edu/~herrnstein/NH3/paper

Molecular Tracers of the Central 12 pc of the Galactic Center

We have used the BIMA array to image the Galactic Center with a 19-pointing mosaic in HCN(1-0), HCO+(1-0), and H 42-alpha emission with 5 km/s velocity resolution and 13'' x 4'' angular resolution. The 5' field includes the circumnuclear ring (CND) and parts of the 20 and 50 km/s clouds. HCN(1-0) and HCO+ trace the CND and nearby giant molecular clouds while the H 42-alpha emission traces the ionized gas in Sgr A West. We find that the CND has a definite outer edge in HCN and HCO+ emission at ~45'' radius and appears to be composed of two or three distinct streams of molecular gas rotating around the nucleus. Outside the CND, HCN and HCO+ trace dense clumps of high-velocity gas in addition to optically thick emission from the 20 and 50 km/s clouds. A molecular ridge of compressed gas and dust, traced in NH3 emission and self-absorbed HCN and HCO+, wraps around the eastern edge of Sgr A East. Just inside this ridge are several arcs of gas which have been accelerated by the impact of Sgr A East with the 50 km/s cloud. HCN and HCO+ emission trace the extension of the northern arm of Sgr A West which appears to be an independent stream of neutral and ionized gas and dust originating outside the CND. Broad line widths and OH maser emission mark the intersection of the northern arm and the CND. Comparison to previous NH3 and 1.2mm dust observations shows that HCN and HCO+ preferentially trace the CND and are weaker tracers of the GMCs than NH3 and dust. We discuss possible scenarios for the emission mechanisms and environment at the Galactic center which could explain the differences in these images.Comment: 24 pages, including 17 figures; to appear in The Astrophysical Journa

A Population-based Longitudinal Healthcare Database in the Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy: A Resource for Planning and Research

No abstract available