Prevention and control of Zika fever as a mosquito-borne and sexually transmitted disease

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic poses a major global public health emergency. It is known that ZIKV is spread by \textit{Aedes} mosquitoes, recent studies show that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact and cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV have been confirmed in the U.S., France, and Italy. How sexual transmission affects the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We presented a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on spread and control of ZIKV and used the model to fit the ZIKV data in Brazil, Colombia, and El Salvador. Based on the estimated parameter values, we calculated the median and confidence interval of the basic reproduction number R0=2.055 (95% CI: 0.523-6.300), in which the distribution of the percentage of contribution by sexual transmission is 3.044 (95% CI: 0.123-45.73). Our study indicates that R0 is most sensitive to the biting rate and mortality rate of mosquitoes while sexual transmission increases the risk of infection and epidemic size and prolongs the outbreak. In order to prevent and control the transmission of ZIKV, it must be treated as not only a mosquito-borne disease but also a sexually transmitted disease

Diastereodivergent synthesis of chiral tetrahydropyrrolodiazepinediones via a one-pot intramolecular aza-Michael/lactamization sequence

A modular and diastereodivergent synthesis of tetrahydro-1H-pyrrolo[1,2d]diazepine-(2,5)-diones is presented. The tetrahydropyrrolodiazepinedione scaffold is obtained via a base-mediated three-step isomerization/tandem cyclization of amino acid-coupled homoallylic amino esters. Diastereoselectivity of the process is mediated by the interplay of a kinetic cyclization event and a propensity for thermodynamic epimerization at two labile chiral centers, giving rise to two distinct major diastereomers dependent on starting material stereochemistry and reaction conditions selected. Herein, we present a synthetic and computational study for this tandem process on a variety of amino ester substrates.Work at the BU-CMD is supported by R24GM111625. The authors wish to thank Dr. Jeffrey Bacon for assistance with Xray crystallographic analysis, Dr. Norman Lee for assistance with high-resolution mass spectrometry analysis, and Dr. Paul Ralifo for assistance with NMR analysis. NMR (CHE-0619339) and MS (CHE-0443618) facilities at Boston University are supported by the NSF. (CHE-0619339 - NSF; CHE-0443618 - NSF; R24GM111625)Published versionSupporting documentationAccepted manuscrip

The discovery and dynamical evolution of an object at the outer edge of Saturn's A ring

This work was supported by the Science and Technology Facilities Council (Grant No. ST/F007566/1) and we are grateful to them for financial assistance. C.D.M. is also grateful to the Leverhulme Trust for the award of a Research Fellowshippublisher PDF not permitted, withdraw

Identifying a sufficient core group for trachoma transmission.

BackgroundIn many infectious diseases, a core group of individuals plays a disproportionate role in transmission. If these individuals were effectively prevented from transmitting infection, for example with a perfect vaccine, then the disease would disappear in the remainder of the community. No vaccine has yet proven effective against the ocular strains of chlamydia that cause trachoma. However, repeated treatment with oral azithromycin may be able to prevent individuals from effectively transmitting trachoma.Methodology/principal findingsHere we assess several methods for identifying a core group for trachoma, assuming varying degrees of knowledge about the transmission process. We determine the minimal core group from a completely specified model, fitted to results from a large Ethiopian trial. We compare this benchmark to a core group that could actually be identified from information available to trachoma programs. For example, determined from the rate of return of infection in a community after mass treatments, or from the equilibrium prevalence of infection.Conclusions/significanceSufficient groups are relatively easy for programs to identify, but will likely be larger than the theoretical minimum

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey.

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen's Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health

Chemical dynamics of triacetylene formation and implications to the synthesis of polyynes in Titan's atmosphere

For the last four decades, the role of polyynes such as diacetylene (HCCCCH) and triacetylene (HCCCCCCH) in the chemical evolution of the atmosphere of Saturn's moon Titan has been a subject of vigorous research. These polyacetylenes are thought to serve as an UV radiation shield in planetary environments; thus, acting as prebiotic ozone, and are considered as important constituents of the visible haze layers on Titan. However, the underlying chemical processes that initiate the formation and control the growth of polyynes have been the least understood to date. Here, we present a combined experimental, theoretical, and modeling study on the synthesis of the polyyne triacetylene (HCCCCCCH) via the bimolecular gas phase reaction of the ethynyl radical (CCH) with diacetylene (HCCCCH). This elementary reaction is rapid, has no entrance barrier, and yields the triacetylene molecule via indirect scattering dynamics through complex formation in a single collision event. Photochemical models of Titan's atmosphere imply that triacetylene may serve as a building block to synthesize even more complex polyynes such as tetraacetylene (HCCCCCCCCH)

The population of propellers in Saturn's A Ring

We present an extensive data set of ~150 localized features from Cassini images of Saturn's Ring A, a third of which are demonstrated to be persistent by their appearance in multiple images, and half of which are resolved well enough to reveal a characteristic "propeller" shape. We interpret these features as the signatures of small moonlets embedded within the ring, with diameters between 40 and 500 meters. The lack of significant brightening at high phase angle indicates that they are likely composed primarily of macroscopic particles, rather than dust. With the exception of two features found exterior to the Encke Gap, these objects are concentrated entirely within three narrow (~1000 km) bands in the mid-A Ring that happen to be free from local disturbances from strong density waves. However, other nearby regions are similarly free of major disturbances but contain no propellers. It is unclear whether these bands are due to specific events in which a parent body or bodies broke up into the current moonlets, or whether a larger initial moonlet population has been sculpted into bands by other ring processes.Comment: 31 pages, 10 figures; Accepted at A

Phase light curves for extrasolar Jupiters and Saturns

We predict how a remote observer would see the brightness variations of giant planets similar to Jupiter and Saturn as they orbit their central stars. We model the geometry of Jupiter, Saturn and Saturn's rings for varying orbital and viewing parameters. Scattering properties for the planets and rings at wavelenghts 0.6-0.7 microns follow Pioneer and Voyager observations, namely, planets are forward scattering and rings are backward scattering. Images of the planet with or without rings are simulated and used to calculate the disk-averaged luminosity varying along the orbit, that is, a light curve is generated. We find that the different scattering properties of Jupiter and Saturn (without rings) make a substantial difference in the shape of their light curves. Saturn-size rings increase the apparent luminosity of the planet by a factor of 2-3 for a wide range of geometries. Rings produce asymmetric light curves that are distinct from the light curve of the planet without rings. If radial velocity data are available for the planet, the effect of the ring on the light curve can be distinguished from effects due to orbital eccentricity. Non-ringed planets on eccentric orbits produce light curves with maxima shifted relative to the position of the maximum planet's phase. Given radial velocity data, the amount of the shift restricts the planet's unknown orbital inclination and therefore its mass. Combination of radial velocity data and a light curve for a non-ringed planet on an eccentric orbit can also be used to constrain the surface scattering properties of the planet. To summarize our results for the detectability of exoplanets in reflected light, we present a chart of light curve amplitudes of non-ringed planets for different eccentricities, inclinations, and the viewing azimuthal angles of the observer.Comment: 40 pages, 13 figures, submitted to Ap.