The Fuzzy Logic Method for Simpler Forecasting

Fildes and Makridakis (1998), Makridakis and Hibon (2000), and Fildes (2001) indicate that simple extrapolative forecasting methods that are robust forecast equally as well or better than more complicated methods, i.e. Box‐Jenkins and other methods. We study the Direct Set Assignment (DSA) extrapolative forecasting method. The DSA method is a non‐linear extrapolative forecasting method developed within the Mamdani Development Framework, and designed to mimic the architecture of a fuzzy logic control system. We combine the DSA method Winters’ Exponential smoothing. This combination provides the best observed forecast accuracy in seven of nine subcategories of time series, and is the top three in terms of observed accuracy in two subcategories. Hence, fuzzy logic which is the basis of the DSA method often is the best method for forecasting

Urban agriculture: a global analysis of the space constraint to meet urban vegetable demand

Urban agriculture (UA) has been drawing a lot of attention recently for several reasons: the majority of the world population has shifted from living in rural to urban areas; the environmental impact of agriculture is a matter of rising concern; and food insecurity, especially the accessibility of food, remains a major challenge. UA has often been proposed as a solution to some of these issues, for example by producing food in places where population density is highest, reducing transportation costs, connecting people directly to food systems and using urban areas efficiently. However, to date no study has examined how much food could actually be produced in urban areas at the global scale. Here we use a simple approach, based on different global-scale datasets, to assess to what extent UA is constrained by the existing amount of urban space. Our results suggest that UA would require roughly one third of the total global urban area to meet the global vegetable consumption of urban dwellers. This estimate does not consider how much urban area may actually be suitable and available for UA, which likely varies substantially around the world and according to the type of UA performed. Further, this global average value masks variations of more than two orders of magnitude among individual countries. The variations in the space required across countries derive mostly from variations in urban population density, and much less from variations in yields or per capita consumption. Overall, the space required is regrettably the highest where UA is most needed, i.e., in more food insecure countries. We also show that smaller urban clusters (i.e., <100 km2 each) together represent about two thirds of the global urban extent; thus UA discourse and policies should not focus on large cities exclusively, but should also target smaller urban areas that offer the greatest potential in terms of physical space

Cluster Perturbation Theory for Hubbard models

Cluster perturbation theory is a technique for calculating the spectral weight of Hubbard models of strongly correlated electrons, which combines exact diagonalizations on small clusters with strong-coupling perturbation theory at leading order. It is exact in both the strong- and weak-coupling limits and provides a good approximation to the spectral function at any wavevector. Following the paper by S\'en\'echal et al. (Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 84}, 522 (2000)), we provide a more complete description and derivation of the method. We illustrate some of its capabilities, in particular regarding the effect of doping, the calculation of ground state energy and double occupancy, the disappearance of the Fermi surface in the $t-t'$ Hubbard model, and so on. The method is applicable to any model with on-site repulsion only.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures (RevTeX 4

Urban agriculture: a global analysis of the space constraint to meet urban vegetable demand

Urban agriculture (UA) has been drawing a lot of attention recently for several reasons: the majority of the world population has shifted from living in rural to urban areas; the environmental impact of agriculture is a matter of rising concern; and food insecurity, especially the accessibility of food, remains a major challenge. UA has often been proposed as a solution to some of these issues, for example by producing food in places where population density is highest, reducing transportation costs, connecting people directly to food systems and using urban areas efficiently. However, to date no study has examined how much food could actually be produced in urban areas at the global scale. Here we use a simple approach, based on different global-scale datasets, to assess to what extent UA is constrained by the existing amount of urban space. Our results suggest that UA would require roughly one third of the total global urban area to meet the global vegetable consumption of urban dwellers. This estimate does not consider how much urban area may actually be suitable and available for UA, which likely varies substantially around the world and according to the type of UA performed. Further, this global average value masks variations of more than two orders of magnitude among individual countries. The variations in the space required across countries derive mostly from variations in urban population density, and much less from variations in yields or per capita consumption. Overall, the space required is regrettably the highest where UA is most needed, i.e., in more food insecure countries. We also show that smaller urban clusters (i.e., <100 km2 each) together represent about two thirds of the global urban extent; thus UA discourse and policies should not focus on large cities exclusively, but should also target smaller urban areas that offer the greatest potential in terms of physical space

Telehealth experiences in Canadian veterans: associations, strengths and barriers to care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Identifying barriers to care in veteran populations is critical, as veterans face increased social isolation, relationship strains and financial insecurities. For Canadian veterans experiencing barriers to accessing healthcare, telehealth may be a promising alternative with comparable effectiveness to in-person services; however, the potential benefits and limitations of telehealth require further examination to determine its long-term utility, and to inform health policy and planning. The goal of the present research was to identify predictors and barriers to telehealth usage in Canadian veterans in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Data were drawn from baseline data of a longitudinal survey examining the psychological functioning of Canadian veterans during the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants were 1144 Canadian veterans aged 18-93 years (M RESULTS: Findings suggest that sociodemographic factors and previous telehealth use were significantly associated with telehealth use during the COVID-19 pandemic. Qualitative evidence highlighted both the benefits (eg, reducing barriers of access) and drawbacks (eg, not all services can be delivered) of telehealth services. CONCLUSIONS: This paper provided a deeper understanding of Canadian veterans\u27 experiences with accessing telehealth care during the COVID-19 pandemic. While for some, the use of telehealth mitigated perceived barriers (eg, safety concerns of leaving home), others felt that not all health services could be appropriately carried out through telehealth. Altogether, findings support the use of telehealth services in increasing care accessibility for Canadian veterans. Continued use of quality telehealth services may be a valuable form of care that extends the reach of healthcare professionals

The roles of personality and resilience in associations between combat experiences and posttraumatic stress disorder among Canadian Armed Forces Veterans

Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) Veterans encounter unique challenges associated with their service. Exposure to service-related traumatic events places them at risk for developing adverse mental health outcomes, including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Our research aimed to assess whether the HEXACO personality model and resilience impacted associations between combat experiences and PTSD symptomatology in CAF Veterans in the past month. We recruited a sample of 245 CAF Veterans (81 % men; Mage = 48.47, SDage = 10.34) to complete a battery of questionnaires. PTSD symptoms were significantly associated with more combat experience, lower resilience, lower extraversion, higher emotionality, and lower agreeableness. However, personality traits did not moderate the relationship between combat experiences and PTSD symptoms. Overall, this research can be used to enhance researchers\u27 and clinicians\u27 understanding of personality traits as risk and protective factors for PTSD symptoms

The mediating roles of workplace support and ethical work environment in associations between leadership and moral distress:a longitudinal study of Canadian health care workers during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in heightened moral distress among health care workers (HCWs) worldwide. Past research has shown that effective leadership may mitigate potential for the development of moral distress. However, no research to date has considered the mechanisms by which leadership might have an influence on moral distress. We sought to evaluate longitudinally whether Canadian HCWs’ perceptions of workplace support and ethical work environment would mediate associations between leadership and moral distress.Methods: A total of 239 French- and English-speaking Canadian HCWs employed during the COVID-19 pandemic were recruited to participate in a longitudinal online survey. Participants completed measures of organizational and supervisory leadership at baseline and follow-up assessments of workplace support, perceptions of an ethical work environment, and moral distress.Results: Associations between both organizational and supervisory leadership and moral distress were fully mediated by workplace supports and perceptions of an ethical work environment.Discussion: To ensure HCW well-being and quality of care, it is important to ensure that HCWs are provided with adequate workplace supports, including manageable work hours, social support, and recognition for efforts, as well as an ethical workplace environment

E-government adoption: A cultural comparison

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2008.E-government diffusion is an international phenomenon. This study compares e-government adoption in the U.K. to adoption in the U.S. In particular, this study seeks to determine if the same factors are salient in both countries. Several studies have explored citizen acceptance of e-government services in the U.S. However, few studies have explored this phenomenon in the U.K. To identify the similarities and differences between the U.K. and the U.S. a survey is conducted in the U.K. and the findings are compared to the literature that investigates diffusion in the U.S. This study proposes a model of e-government adoption in the U.K. based on salient factors in the U.S. A survey is administered to 260 citizens in London to assess the importance of relative advantage, trust and the digital divide on intention to use e-government. The results of binary logistic regression indicate that there are cultural differences in e-government adoption in the U.K. and the U.S. The results indicate that of the prevailing adoption constructs, relative advantage and trust are pertinent in both the U.S. and the U.K., while ICT adoption barriers such as access and skill may vary by culture. Implications for research and practice are discussed

European Sea Bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) immune status and disease resistance are impaired by arginine dietary supplementation

Infectious diseases and fish feeds management are probably the major expenses in the aquaculture business. Hence, it is a priority to define sustainable strategies which simultaneously avoid therapeutic procedures and reinforce fish immunity. Currently, one preferred approach is the use of immunostimulants which can be supplemented to the fish diets. Arginine is a versatile amino acid with important mechanisms closely related to the immune response. Aiming at finding out how arginine affects the innate immune status or improve disease resistance of European seabass (Dicentrarchus labrax) against vibriosis, fish were fed two arginine-supplemented diets (1% and 2% arginine supplementation). A third diet meeting arginine requirement level for seabass served as control diet. Following 15 or 29 days of feeding, fish were sampled for blood, spleen and gut to assess cell-mediated immune parameters and immune-related gene expression. At the same time, fish from each dietary group were challenged against Vibrio anguillarum and survival was monitored. Cell-mediated immune parameters such as the extracellular superoxide and nitric oxide decreased in fish fed arginine-supplemented diets. Interleukins and immune-cell marker transcripts were down-regulated by the highest supplementation level. Disease resistance data were in accordance with a generally depressed immune status, with increased susceptibility to vibriosis in fish fed arginine supplemented diets. Altogether, these results suggest a general inhibitory effect of arginine on the immune defences and disease resistance of European seabass. Still, further research will certainly clarify arginine immunomodulation pathways thereby allowing the validation of its potential as a prophylactic strategy.European Union's Seventh Framework Programme AQUAEXCEL (Aquaculture Infrastructures for Excellence in European Fish Research) [262336]; AQUAIMPROV [NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000038]; North Portugal Regional Operational Programme (ON. 2 - O Novo Norte) , under the National Strategic Reference Framework, through the European Regional Development Fund; North Portugal Regional Operational Programme (ON. 2 - O Novo Norte), under the National Strategic Reference Framework through the COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [SFRH/BD/89457/2012, SFRH/BPD/77210/2011]; Generalitat Valenciana through the project REVIDPAQUA [ISIC/2012/003]; [PEst-C/MAR/LA0015/2013]; [UID/Multi/04423/2013]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio