Reasons and Means to Model Preferences as Incomplete

Literature involving preferences of artificial agents or human beings often assume their preferences can be represented using a complete transitive binary relation. Much has been written however on different models of preferences. We review some of the reasons that have been put forward to justify more complex modeling, and review some of the techniques that have been proposed to obtain models of such preferences

Maternal corticotropin-releasing hormone is associated with LEP DNA methylation at birth and in childhood: an epigenome-wide study in Project Viva

BackgroundCorticotropin-releasing hormone (CRH) plays a central role in regulating the secretion of cortisol which controls a wide range of biological processes. Fetuses overexposed to cortisol have increased risks of disease in later life. DNA methylation may be the underlying association between prenatal cortisol exposure and health effects. We investigated associations between maternal CRH levels and epigenome-wide DNA methylation of cord blood in offsprings and evaluated whether these associations persisted into mid-childhood.MethodsWe investigated mother-child pairs enrolled in the prospective Project Viva pre-birth cohort. We measured DNA methylation in 257 umbilical cord blood samples using the HumanMethylation450 Bead Chip. We tested associations of maternal CRH concentration with cord blood cells DNA methylation, adjusting the model for maternal age at enrollment, education, maternal race/ethnicity, maternal smoking status, pre-pregnancy body mass index, parity, gestational age at delivery, child sex, and cell-type composition in cord blood. We further examined the persistence of associations between maternal CRH levels and DNA methylation in children's blood cells collected at mid-childhood (n = 239, age: 6.7-10.3 years) additionally adjusting for the children's age at blood drawn.ResultsMaternal CRH levels are associated with DNA methylation variability in cord blood cells at 96 individual CpG sites (False Discovery Rate <0.05). Among the 96 CpG sites, we identified 3 CpGs located near the LEP gene. Regional analyses confirmed the association between maternal CRH and DNA methylation near LEP. Moreover, higher maternal CRH levels were associated with higher blood-cell DNA methylation of the promoter region of LEP in mid-childhood (P < 0.05, β = 0.64, SE = 0.30).ConclusionIn our cohort, maternal CRH was associated with DNA methylation levels in newborns at multiple loci, notably in the LEP gene promoter. The association between maternal CRH and LEP DNA methylation levels persisted into mid-childhood

Comparison of Marine Spatial Planning Methods in Madagascar Demonstrates Value of Alternative Approaches

The Government of Madagascar plans to increase marine protected area coverage by over one million hectares. To assist this process, we compare four methods for marine spatial planning of Madagascar's west coast. Input data for each method was drawn from the same variables: fishing pressure, exposure to climate change, and biodiversity (habitats, species distributions, biological richness, and biodiversity value). The first method compares visual color classifications of primary variables, the second uses binary combinations of these variables to produce a categorical classification of management actions, the third is a target-based optimization using Marxan, and the fourth is conservation ranking with Zonation. We present results from each method, and compare the latter three approaches for spatial coverage, biodiversity representation, fishing cost and persistence probability. All results included large areas in the north, central, and southern parts of western Madagascar. Achieving 30% representation targets with Marxan required twice the fish catch loss than the categorical method. The categorical classification and Zonation do not consider targets for conservation features. However, when we reduced Marxan targets to 16.3%, matching the representation level of the “strict protection” class of the categorical result, the methods show similar catch losses. The management category portfolio has complete coverage, and presents several management recommendations including strict protection. Zonation produces rapid conservation rankings across large, diverse datasets. Marxan is useful for identifying strict protected areas that meet representation targets, and minimize exposure probabilities for conservation features at low economic cost. We show that methods based on Zonation and a simple combination of variables can produce results comparable to Marxan for species representation and catch losses, demonstrating the value of comparing alternative approaches during initial stages of the planning process. Choosing an appropriate approach ultimately depends on scientific and political factors including representation targets, likelihood of adoption, and persistence goals

Deciding under ignorance: in search of meaningful extensions of the Hurwicz criterion to decision trees

International audienceThe major paradigm for sequential decision under uncertainty is expected utility. This approach has many good features that qualify it for posing and solving decision problems, especially dynamic consistency and computational efficiency via dynamic programming. However, when uncertainty is due to sheer lack of information, and expected utility is no longer a realistic criterion, the approach collapses because dynamic consistency becomes counterintuitive and the global non-expected utility criteria are no longer amenable to dynamic programming. In this paper we argue against Resolute Choice strategies, following the path opened by Jaffray, and suggest that the dynamic programming methodology may lead to more intuitive solutions respecting the Consequentialism axiom, while a global evaluation of strategies relying on lottery reduction is questionable