Evaluation of bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts

Ensemble prediction systems are used operationally to make probabilistic streamflow forecasts for seasonal time scales. However, hydrological models used for ensemble streamflow prediction often have simulation biases that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. This study evaluates three bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts. All three adjust the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows from a historical simulation. The quality of probabilistic forecasts issued when using the three bias-correction methods is evaluated using a distributions-oriented verification approach. Comparisons are made of retrospective forecasts of monthly flow volumes for a north-central United States basin (Des Moines River, Iowa), issued sequentially for each month over a 48-year record. The results show that all three bias-correction methods significantly improve forecast quality by eliminating unconditional biases and enhancing the potential skill. Still, subtle differences in the attributes of the bias-corrected forecasts have important implications for their use in operational decision-making. Diagnostic verification distinguishes these attributes in a context meaningful for decision-making, providing criteria to choose among bias-correction methods with comparable skill

Involvement of circulating CEA in liver metastases from colorectal cancers re-examined in a new experimental model

Both experimental and clinical data show evidence of a correlation between elevated blood levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and the development of liver metastases from colorectal carcinomas. However, a cause-effect relationship between these two observations has not been demonstrated. For this reason, we developed a new experimental model to evaluate the possible role of circulating CEA in the facilitation of liver metastases. A CEA-negative subclone from the human colon carcinoma cell line CO115 was transfected either with CEA-cDNA truncated at its 3' end by the deletion of 78 base pairs leading to the synthesis of a secreted form of CEA or with a full-length CEA-cDNA leading to the synthesis of the entire CEA molecule linked to the cell surface by a GPI anchor. Transfectants were selected either for their high CEA secretion (clone CO115-2C2 secreting up to 13 microg CEA per 10(6) cells within 72 h) or for their high CEA membrane expression (clone CO115-5F12 expressing up to 1 x 10(6) CEA molecules per cell). When grafted subcutaneously, CO115-2C2 cells gave rise to circulating CEA levels that were directly related to the tumour volume (from 100 to 1000 ng ml(-1) for tumours ranging from 100 to 1000 mm3), whereas no circulating CEA was detectable in CO115 and CO115-5F12 tumour-bearing mice. Three series of nude mice bearing a subcutaneous xenograft from either clone CO115-2C2 or the CO115-5F12 transfectant, or an untransfected CO115 xenograft, were further challenged for induction of experimental liver metastases by intrasplenic injection of three different CEA-expressing human colorectal carcinoma cell lines (LoVo, LS174T or CO112). The number and size of the liver metastases were shown to be independent of the circulating CEA levels induced by the subcutaneous CEA secreting clone (CO115-2C2), but they were directly related to the metastatic properties of the intrasplenically injected tumour cells

Intercomparison of cloud model simulations of Arctic mixed‐phase boundary layer clouds observed during SHEBA/FIRE‐ACE

An intercomparison of six cloud‐resolving and large‐eddy simulation models is presented. This case study is based on observations of a persistent mixed‐phase boundary layer cloud gathered on 7 May, 1998 from the Surface Heat Budget of Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) and First ISCCP Regional Experiment ‐ Arctic Cloud Experiment (FIRE‐ACE). Ice nucleation is constrained in the simulations in a way that holds the ice crystal concentration approximately fixed, with two sets of sensitivity runs in addition to the baseline simulations utilizing different specified ice nucleus (IN) concentrations. All of the baseline and sensitivity simulations group into two distinct quasi‐steady states associated with either persistent mixed‐phase clouds or all‐ice clouds after the first few hours of integration, implying the existence of multiple states for this case. These two states are associated with distinctly different microphysical, thermodynamic, and radiative characteristics. Most but not all of the models produce a persistent mixed‐phase cloud qualitatively similar to observations using the baseline IN/crystal concentration, while small increases in the IN/crystal concentration generally lead to rapid glaciation and conversion to the all‐ice state. Budget analysis indicates that larger ice deposition rates associated with increased IN/crystal concentrations have a limited direct impact on dissipation of liquid in these simulations. However, the impact of increased ice deposition is greatly enhanced by several interaction pathways that lead to an increased surface precipitation flux, weaker cloud top radiative cooling and cloud dynamics, and reduced vertical mixing, promoting rapid glaciation of the mixed‐phase cloud for deposition rates in the cloud layer greater than about 1 − 2 × 10−5 g kg−1 s−1 for this case. These results indicate the critical importance of precipitation‐radiative‐dynamical interactions in simulating cloud phase, which have been neglected in previous fixed‐dynamical parcel studies of the cloud phase parameter space. Large sensitivity to the IN/crystal concentration also suggests the need for improved understanding of ice nucleation and its parameterization in models

A Novel Anti-CEACAM5 Monoclonal Antibody, CC4, Suppresses Colorectal Tumor Growth and Enhances NK Cells-Mediated Tumor Immunity

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA, CEACAM5, and CD66e) has been found to be associated with various types of cancers, particularly colorectal carcinoma, and developed to be a molecular target for cancer diagnosis and therapy. In present study, we generated a novel anti-CEACAM5 monoclonal antibody, namely mAb CC4, by immunizing mice with living colorectal cancer LS174T cells. Immunohistochemical studies found that mAb CC4 specifically and strongly binds to tumor tissues, especially colorectal adenocarcinoma. In xenografted mice, mAb CC4 is specifically accumulated in tumor site and remarkably represses colorectal tumor growth. In vitro functional analysis showed that mAb CC4 significantly suppresses cell proliferation, migration and aggregation of colorectal cancer cells and also raises strong ADCC reaction. More interestingly, mAb CC4 is able to enhance NK cytotoxicity against MHC-I-deficient colorectal cancer cells by blocking intercellular interaction between epithelial CEACAM5 and NK inhibitory receptor CEACAM1. These data suggest that mAb CC4 has the potential to be developed as a novel tumor-targeting carrier and cancer therapeutic

A meta-analysis on the effect of corticosteroid therapy in Kawasaki disease

The current recommended therapy for Kawasaki disease (KD) is the combination of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) and aspirin. However, the role of corticosteroid therapy in KD remains controversial. Using meta-analysis, this study aimed to investigate the efficacy of corticosteroid therapy in KD by comparing it with standard IVIG and aspirin therapy. We included all related randomized and quasi-randomized controlled trials by searching Medline, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, EMBASE, Pub Med, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and the Japanese database (Japan Science and Technology) as well as hand searches of selected references. Data collection and meta-analysis were performed to evaluate the effect of corticosteroids. Our search yielded 11 studies; 7 of which evaluated the effect of corticosteroid for primary therapy in KD, and 4 investigated the effect of corticosteroid therapy in IVIG-resistant patients. Meta-analysis of these studies revealed a significant reduction in the rates of initial treatment failure among patients who received corticosteroid therapy in combination with IVIG compared to IVIG alone (odds ratio (OR) = 0.50; 95% CI, 0.32~0.79; p = 0.003). Furthermore, the use of corticosteroids reduced the duration of fever and the time required for C-reactive protein to return to normal. Our data did not show any significant increase in the incidence of coronary artery lesions or coronary aneurysms (OR = 0.67; 95% CI, 0.35~1.28; p = 0.23) in the corticosteroid group. Conclusion. Corticosteroid combined with IVIG in primary treatment or as treatment of IVIG-resistant patients improved clinical course without increasing coronary artery lesions in children with acute KD

Class IA PI3Kinase Regulatory Subunit, p85α, Mediates Mast Cell Development through Regulation of Growth and Survival Related Genes

Stem cell factor (SCF) mediated KIT receptor activation plays a pivotal role in mast cell growth, maturation and survival. However, the signaling events downstream from KIT are poorly understood. Mast cells express multiple regulatory subunits of class 1A PI3Kinase (PI3K) including p85α, p85β, p50α, and p55α. While it is known that PI3K plays an essential role in mast cells; the precise mechanism by which these regulatory subunits impact specific mast cell functions including growth, survival and cycling are not known. We show that loss of p85α impairs the growth, survival and cycling of mast cell progenitors (MCp). To delineate the molecular mechanism (s) by which p85α regulates mast cell growth, survival and cycling, we performed microarray analyses to compare the gene expression profile of MCps derived from WT and p85α-deficient mice in response to SCF stimulation. We identified 151 unique genes exhibiting altered expression in p85α-deficient cells in response to SCF stimulation compared to WT cells. Functional categorization based on DAVID bioinformatics tool and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) software relates the altered genes due to lack of p85α to transcription, cell cycle, cell survival, cell adhesion, cell differentiation, and signal transduction. Our results suggest that p85α is involved in mast cell development through regulation of expression of growth, survival and cell cycle related genes

The CS1 segment of fibronectin is involved in human OSCC pathogenesis by mediating OSCC cell spreading, migration, and invasion

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The alternatively spliced V region or type III connecting segment III (IIICS) of fibronectin is important in early development, wound healing, and tumorigenesis, however, its role in oral cancer has not been fully investigated. Thus, we investigated the role of CS-1, a key site within the CSIII region of fibronectin, in human oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>To determine the expression of CS-1 in human normal and oral SCC tissue specimens immunohistochemical analyses were performed. The expression of CS1 was then associated with clinicopathological factors. To investigate the role of CS-1 in regulating OSCC cell spreading, migration and invasion, OSCC cells were assayed for spreading and migration in the presence of a CS-1 peptide or a CS-1 blocking peptide, and for invasion using Matrigel supplemented with these peptides. In addition, integrin α4siRNA or a focal adhesion kinase (FAK) anti-sense oligonucleotide was transfected into OSCC cells to examine the mechanistic role of integrin α4 or FAK in CS1-mediated cell spreading and migration, respectively.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>CS-1 expression levels were significantly higher in OSCC tissues compared to normal tissues (p < 0.05). Also, although, high levels of CS-1 expression were present in all OSCC tissue samples, low-grade tumors stained more intensely than high grade tumors. OSCC cell lines also expressed higher levels of CS-1 protein compared to normal human primary oral keratinocytes. There was no significant difference in total fibronectin expression between normal and OSCC tissues and cells. Inclusion of CS-1 in the in vitro assays enhanced OSCC cell spreading, migration and invasion, whereas the CS1 blocking peptide inhibited these processes. Suppression of integrin α4 significantly inhibited the CS1-mediated cell spreading. Furthermore, this migration was mediated by focal adhesion kinase (FAK), since FAK suppression significantly blocked the CS1-induced cell migration.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These data indicate that the CS-1 site of fibronectin is involved in oral cancer pathogenesis and in regulating OSCC cell spreading, migration and invasion.</p