Are monetarists an endangered species?

Monetary policy

Advances toward diagnostic tools for managing zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a life-threatening outcome of Leishmania infantum or Leishmania donovani infection. Dogs are the primary domestic reservoir of L. infantum parasites, and ownership of infected dogs increases the risk of human VL. Controlling infection within dog populations is regarded as critical to VL management in endemic countries, both preventing progression of canine disease and limiting parasite transmission to humans and dogs. Here we discuss various strategies that are used to diagnose canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) and the possibilities of adapting these for use within population screening and control programs. In addition, given the variable transmissibility of L. infantum to the sand fly vector, we outline some possibilities for the preferential identification of ‘super-spreader’ dogs among the overall infected population

Gender-specific profiles of adverse childhood experiences, past year mental and substance use disorders, and their associations among a national sample of adults in the United States

Purpose: This study examined profiles of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and mental and substance use disorders (MSUDs), and associations between distinct profiles of ACEs and MSUDs. Methods: Participants were adults (N = 34, 652) involved in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Latent class analysis was used to examine both profiles of ten ACEs and ten past year MSUDs. Dual latent class analysis regression was used to examine associations between profiles of ACEs and MSUDs. Given gender differences in ACEs and MSUDs, analyses were conducted separately for females and males. Results: Four profiles of ACEs and three profiles of MSUDs were selected for both genders. The four profiles of ACEs were characterized by the following probabilities: high multiple ACEs, high parental substance abuse, high childhood physical abuse, and low ACEs. The three profiles of MSUDs were characterized by the following probabilities: high multiple MSUDs for females and low MSUDs except alcohol use disorders for males, moderate-to-high major depressive episode, and low MSUDs. When compared to the low ACEs and MSUDs profiles, members in the higher ACEs profiles had 3.71–89.75 times greater odds of also being members in the higher MSUDs profiles. However, more than one-third of members in the high multiple ACEs profiles were also in the low MSUDs profiles. Conclusions: Study findings suggest four profiles of the ACEs widely studied as part of the Adverse Childhood Experiences study and risk and resilience for recent MSUDs among men and women nationally affected by ACEs

Detection of Leishmania infantum by PCR, serology and cellular immune response in a cohort study of Brazilian dogs

The sensitivity and specificity of PCR, serology (ELISA) and lymphoproliferative response to Leishmania antigen for the detection of Leishmania infantum infection were evaluated in a cohort of 126 dogs exposed to natural infection in Brazil. For PCR, Leishmania DNA from bone-marrow was amplified with both minicircle and ribosomal primers. The infection status and time of infection of each dog were estimated from longitudinal data. The sensitivity of PCR in parasite-positive samples was 98%. However, the overall sensitivity of PCR in post-infection samples, from dogs with confirmed infection, was only 68%. The sensitivity of PCR varied during the course of infection, being highest (78–88%) 0–135 days post-infection and declining to around 50% after 300 days. The sensitivity of PCR also varied between dogs, and was highest in sick dogs. The sensitivity of serology was similar in parasite-positive (84%), PCR-positive (86%) and post-infection (88%) samples. The sensitivity of serology varied during the course of infection, being lowest at the time of infection and high (93–100%) thereafter. Problems in determining the specificity of serology are discussed. The sensitivity and specificity of cellular responsiveness were low. These data suggest that PCR is most useful in detecting active or symptomatic infection, and that serology can be a more sensitive technique for the detection of all infected dogs

Variations in visceral leishmaniasis burden, mortality and the pathway to care within Bihar, India

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem (< 1 case/10,000 people/year) in the Indian sub-continent (ISC) by 2020. Bihar State in India, which accounts for the majority of cases in the ISC, remains a major target for this elimination effort. However, there is considerable spatial, temporal and sub-population variation in occurrence of the disease and the pathway to care, which is largely unexplored and a threat to achieving the target. METHODS: Data from 6081 suspected VL patients who reported being clinically diagnosed during 2012-2013 across eight districts in Bihar were analysed. Graphical comparisons and Chi-square tests were used to determine differences in the burden of identified cases by season, district, age and sex. Log-linear regression models were fitted to onset (of symptoms)-to-diagnosis and onset-to-treatment waiting times to estimate their associations with age, sex, district and various socio-economic factors (SEFs). Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with mortality. RESULTS: Comparisons of VL caseloads suggested an annual cycle peaking in January-March. A 17-fold variation in the burden of identified cases across districts and under-representation of young children (0-5 years) relative to age-specific populations in Bihar were observed. Women accounted for a significantly lower proportion of the reported cases than men (41 vs 59%, P < 0.0001). Age, district of residence, house wall materials, caste, treatment cost, travelling for diagnosis and the number of treatments for symptoms before diagnosis were identified as correlates of waiting times. Mortality was associated with age, district of residence, onset-to-treatment waiting time, treatment duration, cattle ownership and cost of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The distribution of VL in Bihar is highly heterogeneous, and reported caseloads and associated mortality vary significantly across different districts, posing different challenges to the elimination campaign. Socio-economic factors are important correlates of these differences, suggesting that elimination will require tailoring to population and sub-population circumstances

Empowering academics to be adaptive with eLearning technologies: An exploratory case study

© 2019. This paper describes an exploratory case study investigating the capacity of a multidisciplinary approach to academic development, to empower adaptive responses to ongoing technological change impacting on teaching practice. A quasi-experimental design with an intervention group (n = 22) and a comparative control group (n = 7) was adopted. Pre and post online questionnaires were administered to participants in both groups to evaluate attitudes and experiences relating to technology use in teaching and learning. The questionnaires were adapted from the Technology Acceptance Model. Qualitative measurement of the intervention group's experiences following the professional development was captured using semi-structured interviews, followed by two focus groups to confirm the interview findings. Results indicate that the professional development impacted positively on participants through significantly increased levels of confidence and perceived ease of use. Qualitative data indicated participants experienced cognitive, emotional, and/or practical changes during and/or following the professional development

Reference evapotranspiration from coarse-scale and dynamically downscaled data in complex terrain: Sensitivity to interpolation and resolution

The main objective of this study was to investigate whether dynamically downscaled high resolution (4-km) climate data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model provide physically meaningful additional information for reference evapotranspiration (E) calculation compared to the recently published GridET framework that uses interpolation from coarser-scale simulations run at 32-km resolution. The analysis focuses on complex terrain of Utah in the western United States for years 1985–2010, and comparisons were made statewide with supplemental analyses specifically for regions with irrigated agriculture. E was calculated using the standardized equation and procedures proposed by the American Society of Civil Engineers from hourly data, and climate inputs from WRF and GridET were debiased relative to the same set of observations. For annual mean values, E from WRF (EW) and E from GridET (EG) both agreed well with E derived from observations (r2 = 0.95, bias \u3c 2 mm). Domain-wide, EW and EG were well correlated spatially (r2 = 0.89), however local differences ΔE=EW-EG were as large as +439 mm year−1 (+26%) in some locations, and ΔE averaged +36 mm year−1. After linearly removing the effects of contrasts in solar radiation and wind speed, which are characteristically less reliable under downscaling in complex terrain, approximately half the residual variance was accounted for by contrasts in temperature and humidity between GridET and WRF. These contrasts stemmed from GridET interpolating using an assumed lapse rate of Γ = 6.5K km−1, whereas WRF produced a thermodynamically-driven lapse rate closer to 5K km−1 as observed in mountainous terrain. The primary conclusions are that observed lapse rates in complex terrain differ markedly from the commonly assumed Γ = 6.5K km−1, these lapse rates can be realistically resolved via dynamical downscaling, and use of constant Γ produces differences in E of order as large as 102 mm year−1

Heterogeneities in leishmania infantum infection : using skin parasite burdens to identify highly infectious dogs

Background: The relationships between heterogeneities in host infection and infectiousness (transmission to arthropod vectors) can provide important insights for disease management. Here, we quantify heterogeneities in Leishmania infantum parasite numbers in reservoir and non-reservoir host populations, and relate this to their infectiousness during natural infection. Tissue parasite number was evaluated as a potential surrogate marker of host transmission potential. Methods: Parasite numbers were measured by qPCR in bone marrow and ear skin biopsies of 82 dogs and 34 crab-eating foxes collected during a longitudinal study in Amazon Brazil, for which previous data was available on infectiousness (by xenodiagnosis) and severity of infection. Results: Parasite numbers were highly aggregated both between samples and between individuals. In dogs, total parasite abundance and relative numbers in ear skin compared to bone marrow increased with the duration and severity of infection. Infectiousness to the sandfly vector was associated with high parasite numbers; parasite number in skin was the best predictor of being infectious. Crab-eating foxes, which typically present asymptomatic infection and are non-infectious, had parasite numbers comparable to those of non-infectious dogs. Conclusions: Skin parasite number provides an indirect marker of infectiousness, and could allow targeted control particularly of highly infectious dogs