Explaining inconsistencies between data on condom use and condom sales

BACKGROUND: Several HIV prevention programs use data on condom sales and survey-based data on condom prevalence to monitor progress. However, such indicators are not always consistent. This paper aims to explain these inconsistencies and to assess whether the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used can be estimated from survey data. This would be useful for program managers, as it would enable estimation of the number of condoms needed for different target groups. METHODS: We use data from six Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate the total annual number of sex acts and number of condoms used. Estimates of the number of sex acts are based on self-reported coital frequency, the proportion reporting intercourse the previous day, and survival methods. Estimates of the number of condoms used are based on self-reported frequency of use, the proportion reporting condom use the previous day and in last intercourse. The estimated number of condoms used is then compared with reported data on condom sales and distribution. RESULTS: Analysis of data on the annual number of condoms sold and distributed to the trade reveals very erratic patterns, which reflect stock-ups at various levels in the distribution chain. Consequently, condom sales data are a very poor indicator of the level of condom use. Estimates of both the number of sexual acts and the number of condoms used vary enormously based on the estimation method used. For several surveys, the highest estimate of the annual number of condoms used is tenfold that of the lowest estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Condom sales to the trade are a poor indicator of levels of condom use, and are therefore insufficient to monitor HIV prevention programs. While survey data on condom prevalence allow more detailed monitoring, converting such data to an estimated number of sex acts and condoms used is not straightforward. The estimation methods yield widely different results, and it is impossible to determine which method is most accurate. Until the reliability of these various estimation methods can be established, estimating the annual number of condoms used from survey data will not be feasible. Collecting survey data on the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used in a fixed time period may enable the calculation of more reliable estimates of the number of sex acts and condoms used

Willingness to work in rural areas and the role of intrinsic versus extrinsic professional motivations - a survey of medical students in Ghana

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Retaining health workers in rural areas is challenging for a number of reasons, ranging from personal preferences to difficult work conditions and low remuneration. This paper assesses the influence of intrinsic and extrinsic motivation on willingness to accept postings to deprived areas among medical students in Ghana.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A computer-based survey involving 302 fourth year medical students was conducted from May-August 2009. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between students' willingness to accept rural postings and their professional motivations, rural exposure and family parental professional and educational status (PPES).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Over 85% of students were born in urban areas and 57% came from affluent backgrounds. Nearly two-thirds of students reported strong intrinsic motivation to study medicine. After controlling for demographic characteristics and rural exposure, motivational factors did not influence willingness to practice in rural areas. High family PPES was consistently associated with lower willingness to work in rural areas.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although most Ghanaian medical students are motivated to study medicine by the desire to help others, this does not translate into willingness to work in rural areas. Efforts should be made to build on intrinsic motivation during medical training and in designing rural postings, as well as favour lower PPES students for admission.</p

Mate Value and Self-Esteem: Evidence from Eight Cultural Groups

This paper explores self-perceived mate value (SPMV), and its association with self-esteem, in eight cultures. 1066 participants, from 8 cultural groups in 7 countries, rated themselves on 24 SPMVs and completed a measure of self-esteem. Consistent with evolutionary theory, women were more likely to emphasise their caring and passionate romantic nature. In line with previous cross-cultural research, characteristics indicating passion and romance and social attractiveness were stressed more by respondents from individualistic cultures, and those higher on self-expression (rather than survival) values; characteristics indicative of maturity and confidence were more likely to be mentioned by those from Traditional, rather than Secular, cultures. Contrary to gender role theory, societal equality had only limited interactions with sex and SPMV, with honesty of greater significance for male self-esteem in societies with unequal gender roles. These results point to the importance of cultural and environmental factors in influencing self-perceived mate qualities, and are discussed in relation to broader debates about the impact of gender role equality on sex differences in personality and mating strategies

District-Level Spatial Analysis of Migration Flows in Ghana: Determinants and Implications for Policy

The present study investigates the determinants of inter-district migration flows over the 1995-2000 period in Ghana. A combination of socio-economic, natural and spatial ‘district-level’ attributes are considered as potential variables explaining the direction of migration flows. In addition to the ‘net’ migration model, ‘in’ and ‘out’ migration models are also employed within the context of the gravity model. Results in the three models consistently show that people move out of districts with less employment and choose districts with high employment rate as destinations. While shorter distance to roads encourages out-migration, districts with better water access seem to attract migrants. Generally, people move out of predominantly agrarian districts to relatively more urbanized districts

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

Background Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. Methods We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). Findings In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683–0·717]). Interpretation In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. Funding British Journal of Surgery Society

Coming home to die? The association between migration and mortality in rural South Africa

Background: studies on migration often ignore the health and social impact of migrants returning to their rural communities. Several studies have shown migrants to be particularly susceptible to HIV infection. This paper investigates whether migrants to rural households have a higher risk of dying, especially from HIV, than non-migrants.Methods: using data from a large and ongoing Demographic Surveillance System, 41,517 adults, enumerated in bi-annual rounds between 2001 and 2005, and aged 18 to 60 years were categorized into four groups: external in-migrants, internal migrants, out-migrants and residents. The risk of dying by migration status was quantified by Cox proportional hazard regression. In a sub-group analysis of 1212 deaths which occurred in 2000 – 2001 and for which cause of death information was available, the relationship between migration status and dying from AIDS was examined in logistic regression.Results: in all, 618 deaths were recorded among 7,867 external in-migrants, 255 among 4,403 internal migrants, 310 among 11,476 out-migrants and 1900 deaths were registered among 17,771 residents. External in-migrants were 28% more likely to die than residents [adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) = 1.28, P &lt; 0.001, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) (1.16, 1.41)]. In the sub-group analysis, the odds of dying from AIDS was 1.79 [adjusted Odd ratio (aOR) = 1.79, P = 0.009, 95% CI (1.15, 2.78)] for external in-migrants compared to residents; there was no statistically significant difference in AIDS mortality between residents and out-migrants, [aOR = 1.25, P = 0.533, 95% CI (0.62–2.53)]. Independently, females were more likely to die from AIDS than males [aOR = 2.35, P &lt; 0.001, 95% CI (1.79, 3.08)].Conclusion: external in-migrants have a higher risk of dying, especially from HIV related causes, than residents, and in areas with substantial migration this needs to be taken into account in evaluating mortality statistics and planning health care service