A Generalized Estimating Equations Approach to Model Heterogeneity and Time Dependence in Capture-Recapture Studies

Individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities and time dependence are fundamentally important for estimating the closed animal population parameters in capture-recapture studies. A generalized estimating equations (GEE) approach accounts for linear correlation among capture-recapture occasions, and individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities in a closed population capture-recapture individual heterogeneity and time variation model. The estimated capture probabilities are used to estimate animal population parameters. Two real data sets are used for illustrative purposes. A simulation study is carried out to assess the performance of the GEE estimator. A Quasi-Likelihood Information Criterion (QIC) is applied for the selection of the best fitting model. This approach performs well when the estimated population parameters depend on the individual heterogeneity and the nature of linear correlation among capture-recapture occasions

Abrikosov Vortex and Branes

We give a brief review of the application of some topological solutions in field theory.Comment: To appear in a volume in honour of A.P.Balchandran in occasion of his 65th birthday. Spelling of the name in the title and some other typos correcte

Pengaruh Pembelajaran Konstruktivistik dengan Metode Problem Solving Terhadap Kreativitas Siswa MAN

AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan pengaruh pembelajaran konstruktivistik dengan metode problem solving terhadap kreativitas siswa. Penelitian ini menggunakan eksperimen semu dengan desain penelitian Quasi Control Group Design (Desain Grup Kontrol Quasi) dengan metode berjenis Quasi Experimental (penelitian eksperimen semu). Penelitian ini dilakasanakan di MAN Bangkalan yang berjumlah empat kelas yang masing-masing kelas berjumlah 37 siswa. Keseluruhan penelitian untuk kelas eksperimen berjumlah 74 siswa sedangkan kelas kontrol berjumlah 74 siswa sehingga jumlah keseluruhan dari seluruh kelas menjadi 148 siswa. Teknik pengumpulan data dengan menggunakan tes tulis. Tes yang digunakan untuk mengetahui kreativitas siswa dengan menggunakan teknik analisis data yaitu normalitas, homogenitas dan uji hipotesis. Teknik pengumpulan data dengan menggunakan instrument tes tulis. Untuk menguji pengaruh pembelajaran konstrutivistik dilakukan dengan dua analisa dengan uji beda dan uji t- test samples independent. Hasil dan analisis data yang diperoleh dengan nilai uji beda signifikansi denagn nilai sebesar 711,54 dan kelas kontrol 54,15. Kemudian hasil analisis yang diperoleh dari pengaruh pembelajaran konstruktivistik dengan metode problem solving terhadap kreativitas dengan nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,000<0,05. Sehingga dapat disimpulkan setelah dilakukan uji t independent samples test bahwa pembelajaran konstruktivistik dengan metode problem solving berpengaruh terhadap kreativitas siswa.

Fungsi Komunikasi Penyuluh dalam Meningkatkan Hasil Panen Padi pada Petani Sawah Kecamatan Bungaraya Kabupaten Siak Sri Indrapura

The background of this research with the problems faced by farmers in increasing rice yields which farmers are farmers from the local area who have an average level of know ledge that is low. The problem faced by farmers as a way of processing the soil is good ang right as well the use of drugs for the plant, the government helps farmers problems with the procurement of agricultural extension workers in the region who are in the department of technical implementation unit (UPTD) agriculture. This study uses a qualitative method of data collection techniques participant observation, interviews, an documentation. Subjects in this study were agricultural extension and rice farmers in the village Bungaraya. Whereas the object of research is the communication function extension unit technical implementing agency (UPTD) Bungaraya agricultural districs. To analyze the collected data the authors used an interactive model analysis. The final stage of this analysis is examining the validity of the data. This study uses a qualitative method of data collection techniques participant observation, interviews, an documentation. Subjects in this study were agricultural extension and rice farmers in the village Bungaraya. Whereas the object of research is the communication function extension unit technical implementing agency (UPTD) Bungaraya agricultural districs. To analyze the collected data the authors used an interactive model analysis. The final stage of this analysis is examining the validity of the data. The results of research, extension communication function in society is indispensable in helping to increase knowledge of farmers in improving their rice yields. With the presence of extension can bring considerable impact, which before the role of extension workers how much land management that is incompatible with science is taught by the extension through agricultural extension methods. In practice in the village Bungaraya its extension accomplished by using the system of training and visits (CONDUCT), demonstration plots (Pilot), and a field school. The method can produce a feed-back and the rate of adaption of counseling objectives can be achieved despite the persistence of the constraints and obstacles in extension activities. While in the manufacturing extension program, extension assisted by the chairman of farmer groups and programs will be made has previously been adapted to the circumstances in the field of information obtained by farmers and farmer groups. As for the factors that become obstacles in extension activities such as internal and external factors for the extension, the language factor, time, education of farmers, farmers awareness in extension activities and still lack of motivation of farmers in extension. The results of research, extension communication function in society is indispensable in helping to increase knowledge of farmers in improving their rice yields. With the presence of extension can bring considerable impact, which before the role of extension workers how much land management that is incompatible with science is taught by the extension through agricultural extension methods. In practice in the village Bungaraya its extension accomplished by using the system of training and visits (CONDUCT), demonstration plots (Pilot), and a field school. The method can produce a feed-back and the rate of adaption of counseling objectives can be achieved despite the persistence of the constraints and obstacles in extension activities. While in the manufacturing extension program, extension assisted by the chairman of farmer groups and programs will be made has previously been adapted to the circumstances in the field of information obtained by farmers and farmer groups. As for the factors that become obstacles in extension activities such as internal and external factors for the extension, the language factor, time, education of farmers, farmers awareness in extension activities and still lack of motivation of farmers in extension. Keywords : Communication Extension, Technical Implementation Unit Services (UPTD) Agriculture Keywords : Communication Extension, Technical Implementation Unit Services (UPTD) Agricultur

Optimization of a horizontal axis marine current turbine via surrogate models

Flow through a scaled horizontal axis marine current turbine was numerically simulated after validation and the turbine design was optimized. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code Ansys-CFX 16.1 for numerical modeling, an in-house blade element momentum (BEM) code for analytical modeling and an in-house surrogate-based optimization (SBO) code were used to find an optimal turbine design. The blade-pitch angle (θ) and the number of rotor blades (NR) were taken as design variables. A single objective optimization approach was utilized in the present work. The defined objective function was the turbine’s power coefficient (CP). A 3x3 full-factorial sampling technique was used to define the sample space. This sampling technique gave different turbine designs, which were further evaluated for the objective function by solving the Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS). Finally, the SBO technique with search algorithm produced an optimal design. It is found that the optimal design has improved the objective function by 26.5%. This article presents the solution approach, analysis of the turbine flow field and the predictability of various surrogate based techniques

Penggunaan Negosiasi Makna dalam Wacana Lisan Guru dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Pemahaman Siswa Kelas IV Sekolah Dasar

This study aimed to describe the shape and type of negotiation of meaning and the frequency of the use of negotiation of meaning that teachers do in their lessons in the fourth grade. Moreover, it also aims to determine the effect of negotiation of meaning to the understanding of fourth grade students. This type of research is descriptive, because it describes the phenomena deslriptif shape and function of the use of negotiation of meaning as it is. The instrument used in this study are guidelines for observation, interview and test. The main instrument in this study is the researchers themselves who aided and supported by the other instruments. In the qualitative method, using observation sheet instruments and guidelines for the interview. Researchers used data collection techniques such as observation sheets, interview and test. The results showed that There are nine forms of negotiation of meaning. The form of negotiations that meaning is, ask questions inducement, explain, repeat, evaluating, defining, affirmation, outlines, and respond. There are nine functions Function negotiation negotiation of meaning that meaning is, requests for clarification, confirmation, confirmation check, repair or correction of its own, expansion, demand explanations, clarifications reply, reply confirmation, and reply as an answer. Frequency negotiation of meaning that most often appears on learning is a check confirmation. more often negotiate meaning it appears, increasing student understanding.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan bentuk dan jenis negosiasi makna dan frekuensi penggunaan negosiasi makna yang dilakukan guru dalam pembelajaran yang dilakukan di kelas IV SD. Selain itu, untuk mengetahui pengaruh negosiasi makna terhadap pemahaman siswa kelas IV SD. Jenis penelitian ini adalah deskriptif karena memaparkan fenomena bentuk dan fungsi penggunaan negosiasi makna secara apa adanya. Instrumen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pedoman observasi, pedoman wawancara, dan tes. Instrumen utama dalam penelitian ini adalah peneliti sendiri yang dibantu dan didukung oleh instrumen lainnya. Pada metode kualitatif, menggunakan instrumen lembar observasi dan pedoman wawancara. Peneliti menggunakan teknik pengumpulan data berupa lembar observasi, pedoman wawancara, dan tes. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa terdapat sembilan bentuk negosiasi makna. Bentuk negosiasi makna tersebut adalah, bertanya, pertanyaan pancingan, menjelaskan, mengulang, melakukan evaluasi, mendefinisikan, penegasan, menguraikan, dan menanggapi. Terdapat sembilan fungsi negosiasi makna, yaitu permintaan klarifikasi, konfirmasi, cek konfirmasi, perbaikan atau dikoreksi sendiri, perluasan, permintaan penjelasan, membalas klarifikasi, membalas konfirmasi, dan membalas sebagai jawaban. Frekuensi negosiasi makna yang paling sering muncul pada pembelajaran adalah cek konfirmasi. semakin sering negosiasi makna itu muncul, pemahaman siswa semakin meningkat

Inference for the median residual life function in sequential multiple assignment randomized trials

In survival analysis, median residual lifetime is often used as a summary measure to assess treatment effectiveness; it is not clear, however, how such a quantity could be estimated for a given dynamic treatment regimen using data from sequential randomized clinical trials. We propose a method to estimate a dynamic treatment regimen‐specific median residual life (MERL) function from sequential multiple assignment randomized trials. We present the MERL estimator, which is based on inverse probability weighting, as well as, two variance estimates for the MERL estimator. One variance estimate follows from Lunceford, Davidian and Tsiatis' 2002 survival function‐based variance estimate and the other uses the sandwich estimator. The MERL estimator is evaluated, and its two variance estimates are compared through simulation studies, showing that the estimator and both variance estimates produce approximately unbiased results in large samples. To demonstrate our methods, the estimator has been applied to data from a sequentially randomized leukemia clinical trial. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106925/1/sim6042.pd

Beyond somatosensation: Mrgprs in mucosal tissues

Mas-related G coupled receptors (Mrgprs) are a superfamily of receptors expressed in sensory neurons that are known to transmit somatic sensations from the skin to the central nervous system. Interestingly, Mrgprs have recently been implicated in sensory and motor functions of mucosal-associated neuronal circuits. The gastrointestinal and pulmonary tracts are constantly exposed to noxious stimuli. Therefore, it is likely that neuronal Mrgpr signaling pathways in mucosal tissues, akin to their family members expressed in the skin, might relay messages that alert the host when mucosal tissues are affected by damaging signals. Further, Mrgprs have been proposed to mediate the cross-talk between sensory neurons and immune cells that promotes host-protective functions at barrier sites. Although the mechanisms by which Mrgprs are activated in mucosal tissues are not completely understood, these exciting studies implicate Mrgprs as potential therapeutic targets for conditions affecting the intestinal and airway mucosa. This review will highlight the central role of Mrgpr signaling pathways in the regulation of homeostasis at mucosal tissues

Crab culture potential in southwestern Bangladesh: alternative to shrimp culture for climate change adaption

Outbreaks of disease, price increases, international competition and impact of climate change has setback shrimp culture in the coastal region of Bangladesh. In this changing environment, crab has emerged as a potential exportable commodity in the country. Farmers are transferring to crab farming as it is less susceptible to disease, resistant to adverse environmental conditions and has a good market price. This paper highlights the application of remote sensing and GIS for crab culture potential. The paper discusses the imminent capabilities of satellite imaging technology and Multi criteria evaluation (MCE) module in GIS environment for development of sustainable crab aquaculture consisted physical, environmental and socioeconomic data to evaluate coastal land based criteria for mud carb farming based on water quality, water availability, salinity, risks of flooding, soil types, topography, land use/land cover; infrastructure, inputs, seed sources, market and support services. All the layers with associated attribute data were digitally encoded in a GIS database to create thematic layers. The database was verified to remove the inconsistency if any. The expert opinions were combined into the model by assigning weights of relative importance to evaluate crab farming and land suitability was categorized as very suitable, moderate suitable, marginal suitable and currently not suitable by implementing the logical criteria. MCE identified a range of suitable land parcels with unique characteristics. The resultant map reveals that a considerable amount of land (28.33%) fell under very suitable category which is situated in the northwest and southwestern part of the area. On the other hand, majority of the land parcel (62.22%) fell within the moderately suitable group that is scattered throughout the area and approximately 9.45% of land was only marginally suitable for crab culture. However, there is no land parcel designated as unsuitable in the present study for crab culture. The suitability output is replicable within the study area and transferable to other areas for other cultured specie