The total assessment profile, volume 2

Appendices are presented which include discussions of interest formulas, factors in regionalization, parametric modeling of discounted benefit-sacrifice streams, engineering economic calculations, and product innovation. For Volume 1, see

Pulmonary vasospasm in systemic sclerosis: noninvasive techniques for detection

In a subgroup of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc), vasospasm affecting the pulmonary circulation may contribute to worsening respiratory symptoms, including dyspnea. Noninvasive assessment of pulmonary blood flow (PBF), utilizing inert-gas rebreathing (IGR) and dual-energy computed-tomography pulmonary angiography (DE-CTPA), may be useful for identifying pulmonary vasospasm. Thirty-one participants (22 SSc patients and 9 healthy volunteers) underwent PBF assessment with IGR and DE-CTPA at baseline and after provocation with a cold-air inhalation challenge (CACh). Before the study investigations, participants were assigned to subgroups: group A included SSc patients who reported increased breathlessness after exposure to cold air (n = 11), group B included SSc patients without cold-air sensitivity (n = 11), and group C patients included the healthy volunteers. Median change in PBF from baseline was compared between groups A, B, and C after CACh. Compared with groups B and C, in group A there was a significant decline in median PBF from baseline at 10 minutes (−10%; range: −52.2% to 4.0%; P < 0.01), 20 minutes (−17.4%; −27.9% to 0.0%; P < 0.01), and 30 minutes (−8.5%; −34.4% to 2.0%; P < 0.01) after CACh. There was no significant difference in median PBF change between groups B or C at any time point and no change in pulmonary perfusion on DE-CTPA. Reduction in pulmonary blood flow following CACh suggests that pulmonary vasospasm may be present in a subgroup of patients with SSc and may contribute to worsening dyspnea on exposure to cold

The total assessment profile, volume 1

A methodology is described for the evaluation of societal impacts associated with the implementation of a new technology. Theoretical foundations for the methodology, called the total assessment profile, are established from both the economic and social science perspectives. The procedure provides for accountability of nonquantifiable factors and measures through the use of a comparative value matrix by assessing the impacts of the technology on the value system of the society

Using ecological propensity score to adjust for missing confounders in small area studies

Small area ecological studies are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the impact of area level risk factors on health outcomes when data are only available in an aggregated form. However, the resulting estimates are often biased due to unmeasured confounders, which typically are not available from the standard administrative registries used for these studies. Extra information on confounders can be provided through external data sets such as surveys or cohorts, where the data are available at the individual level rather than at the area level; however, such data typically lack the geographical coverage of administrative registries. We develop a framework of analysis which combines ecological and individual level data from different sources to provide an adjusted estimate of area level risk factors which is less biased. Our method (i) summarizes all available individual level confounders into an area level scalar variable, which we call ecological propensity score (EPS), (ii) implements a hierarchical structured approach to impute the values of EPS whenever they are missing, and (iii) includes the estimated and imputed EPS into the ecological regression linking the risk factors to the health outcome. Through a simulation study, we show that integrating individual level data into small area analyses via EPS is a promising method to reduce the bias intrinsic in ecological studies due to unmeasured confounders; we also apply the method to a real case study to evaluate the effect of air pollution on coronary heart disease hospital admissions in Greater London

A Sensitivity Study on the Effects of Particle Chemistry, Asphericity and Size on the Mass Extinction Efficiency of Mineral Dust in the Earth's Atmosphere: From the Near to Thermal IR

To determine a plausible range of mass extinction efficiencies (MEE) of terrestrial atmospheric dust from the near to thermal IR, sensitivity analyses are performed over an extended range of dust microphysical and chemistry perturbations. The IR values are subsequently compared to those in the near-IR, to evaluate spectral relationships in their optical properties. Synthesized size distributions consistent with measurements, model particle size, while composition is defined by the refractive indices of minerals routinely observed in dust, including the widely used OPAC/Hess parameterization. Single-scattering properties of representative dust particle shapes are calculated using the T-matrix, Discrete Dipole Approximation and Lorenz-Mie light-scattering codes. For the parameterizations examined, MEE ranges from nearly zero to 1.2 square meters per gram, with the higher values associated with non-spheres composed of quartz and gypsum. At near-IR wavelengths, MEE for non-spheres generally exceeds those for spheres, while in the thermal IR, shape-induced changes in MEE strongly depend on volume median diameter (VMD) and wavelength, particularly for MEE evaluated at the mineral resonant frequencies. MEE spectral distributions appear to follow particle geometry and are evidence for shape dependency in the optical properties. It is also shown that non-spheres best reproduce the positions of prominent absorption peaks found in silicates. Generally, angular particles exhibit wider and more symmetric MEE spectral distribution patterns from 8-10 micrometers than those with smooth surfaces, likely due to their edge-effects. Lastly, MEE ratios allow for inferring dust optical properties across the visible-IR spectrum. We conclude the MEE of dust aerosol are significant for the parameter space investigated, and are a key component for remote sensing applications and the study of direct aerosol radiative effects

Small-area methods for investigation of environment and health

Small-area studies offer a powerful epidemiological approach to study disease patterns at the population level and assess health risks posed by environmental pollutants. They involve a public health investigation on a geographic scale (e.g. neighbourhood) with overlay of health, environmental, demographic and potential confounder data. Recent methodological advances, including Bayesian approaches, combined with fast growing computational capabilities permit more informative analyses than previously possible, including the incorporation of data at different scales, from satellites to individual-level survey information. Better data availability has widened the scope and utility of small-area studies, but also led to greater complexity, including choice of optimal study area size and extent, duration of study periods, range of covariates and confounders to be considered, and dealing with uncertainty. The availability of data from large, well-phenotyped cohorts such as UK Biobank enables the use of mixed-level study designs and the triangulation of evidence on environmental risks from small-area and individual-level studies, therefore improving causal inference, including use of linked biomarker and -omics data. As a result, there are now improved opportunities to investigate the impacts of environmental risk factors on human health, particularly for the surveillance and prevention of non-communicable diseases

Common polygenic risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is associated with cognitive ability in the general population

Acknowledgements Generation Scotland has received core funding from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates CZD/16/6 and the Scottish Funding Council HR03006. We are grateful to all the families who took part, the general practitioners and the Scottish School of Primary Care for their help in recruiting them and the whole Generation Scotland team, which includes interviewers, computer and laboratory technicians, clerical workers, research scientists, volunteers, managers, receptionists, health-care assistants and nurses. We acknowledge with gratitude the financial support received for this work from the Dr Mortimer and Theresa Sackler Foundation. For the Lothian Birth Cohorts (LBC1921 and LBC1936), we thank Paul Redmond for database management assistance; Alan Gow, Martha Whiteman, Alison Pattie, Michelle Taylor, Janie Corley, Caroline Brett and Caroline Cameron for data collection and data entry; nurses and staff at the Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility, where blood extraction and genotyping was performed; staff at the Lothian Health Board; and the staff at the SCRE Centre, University of Glasgow. The research was supported by a program grant from Age UK (Disconnected Mind) and by grants from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC). The work was undertaken by The University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1). Funding from the Medical Research Council (MRC) and BBSRC is gratefully acknowledged. DJM is an NRS Career Research Fellow funded by the CSO. BATS were funded by the Australian Research Council (A79600334, A79906588, A79801419, DP0212016, DP0664638, and DP1093900) and the National Health and Medical Research Council (389875) Australia. MKL is supported by a Perpetual Foundation Wilson Fellowship. SEM is supported by a Future Fellowship (FT110100548) from the Australian Research Council. GWM is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia, Fellowship (619667). We thank the twins and siblings for their participation, Marlene Grace, Ann Eldridge and Natalie Garden for cognitive assessments, Kerrie McAloney, Daniel Park, David Smyth and Harry Beeby for research support, Anjali Henders and staff in the Molecular Epidemiology Laboratory for DNA sample processing and preparation and Scott Gordon for quality control and management of the genotypes. This work is supported by a Stragetic Award from the Wellcome Trust, reference 104036/Z/14/Z.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Теоретичні засади дослідження виборчих технологій в електоральному процесі України та проблеми їх ефективності

Здійснено політологічний аналіз ефективності виборчих технологій та проаналізо­вано їх вплив на електоральні процеси в Україні.Осуществлен политологический анализ эффективности избирательных технологий и проанализировано их влияние на электоральные процессы в Украине.Political analysis of electoral technologies effectiveness and analyzes of their impact on the electoral process in Ukraine are made

Dissolved Organic Carbon in the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The quantitative role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export is evaluated by combining DOC measurements with observed water mass transports. In the eastern subpolar North Atlantic, both upper and lower limbs of the AMOC transport high-DOC waters. Deep water formation that connects the two limbs of the AMOC results in a high downward export of non-refractory DOC (197 Tg-C·yr-1). Subsequent remineralization in the lower limb of the AMOC, between subpolar and subtropical latitudes, consumes 72% of the DOC exported by the whole Atlantic Ocean. The contribution of DOC to the carbon sequestration in the North Atlantic Ocean (62 Tg-C·yr-1) is considerable and represents almost a third of the atmospheric CO 2 uptake in the region