Seasonal dynamic factor analysis and bootstrap inference : application to electricity market forecasting

Year-ahead forecasting of electricity prices is an important issue in the current context of electricity markets. Nevertheless, only one-day-ahead forecasting is commonly tackled up in previous published works. Moreover, methodology developed for the short-term does not work properly for long-term forecasting. In this paper we provide a seasonal extension of the Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Analysis, to deal with the interesting problem (both from the economic and engineering point of view) of long term forecasting of electricity prices. Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis (SeaDFA) allows to deal with dimensionality reduction in vectors of time series, in such a way that extracts common and specific components. Furthermore, common factors are able to capture not only regular dynamics (stationary or not) but also seasonal one, by means of common factors following a multiplicative seasonal VARIMA(p,d,q)×(P,D,Q)s model. Besides, a bootstrap procedure is proposed to be able to make inference on all the parameters involved in the model. A bootstrap scheme developed for forecasting includes uncertainty due to parameter estimation, allowing to enhance the coverage of forecast confidence intervals. Concerning the innovative and challenging application provided, bootstrap procedure developed allows to calculate not only point forecasts but also forecasting intervals for electricity prices

Acorns for fattening free-range pigs (OK-Net Ecofeed Practice Abstract)

- The fattening performance is very much influenced by the age of pigs and their compensatory growth; hence, pigs should be as old as possible (≥1 year) and adapted to grazing. - Grass is necessary as a source of protein to compensate for the low protein levels in acorns. - The food conversion rate is 10.5 kg of whole acorns of Q. i. rotundifolia to gain 1 kg, besides the contribution of grass; to establish the stocking rate, consider that an adult evergreen oak produces ≈11 kg of acorns/year). - Iberian pigs peel acorns to avoid the high content of tannins in the shell. However, during peeling, approxi-mately 20% of the kernel can be wasted

Barriers and Motivators of Household Water-Conservation Behavior: A Bibliometric and Systematic Literature Review

Water scarcity, aggravated by growing demands, represents a significant challenge for humanity. Promoting household sustainable water-consumption behaviors has become vital. The Community-Based Social Marketing (CBSM) framework stands out among many strategies to promote water conservation. However, many interventions in this domain often neglect significant theoretical insights, leading to gaps in addressing key social and contextual drivers of behavior. This study conducts a systematic and bibliometric literature review aimed at identifying determinants underlying household water-conservation behaviors. This review encompasses 155 papers published from 1984 to early 2023. Our findings show that this is a highly multidisciplinary field of study with a marked increase in research attention discerned post-2010, particularly from water-stressed regions. Furthermore, our findings also reveal an often-overlooked integration of guiding theories and an over-reliance on self-reported measures in prior research. Factors such as attitude, perceived efficacy, emotions, and habits emerge as pivotal in understanding water conservation. However, while attitudes have been extensively analyzed in previous research, the other factors deserve greater attention from researchers. Inconsistencies in demographic predictors further hint at potential moderating roles. This paper offers valuable insights for designing effective household water-conservation interventions through a social marketing lens.This research was funded by Generalitat Valenciana (Emerging Project GV2022 number: CIGE/2022/051), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) doctoral research scholarship, and Universidad Católica de Córdoba (Argentina)

Mixed models for short-run forecasting of electricity prices: Application for the Spanish market

Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become necessary for power generation unit schedule, since it is the basis of every profit maximization strategy. In this article a new and very easy method to compute accurate forecasts for electricity prices using mixed models is proposed. The main idea is to develop an efficient tool for one-step-ahead forecasting in the future, combining several prediction methods for which forecasting performance has been checked and compared for a span of several years. Also as a novelty, the 24 hourly time series has been modelled separately, instead of the complete time series of the prices. This allows one to take advantage of the homogeneity of these 24 time series. The purpose of this paper is to select the model that leads to smaller prediction errors and to obtain the appropriate length of time to use for forecasting. These results have been obtained by means of a computational experiment. A mixed model which combines the advantages of the two new models discussed is proposed. Some numerical results for the Spanish market are shown, but this new methodology can be applied to other electricity markets as wel

Modelling and forecasting fossil fuels, CO2 and electricity prices and their volatilities

In the current uncertain context that affects both the world economy and the energy sector, with the rapid increase in the prices of oil and gas and the very unstable political situation that affects some of the largest raw materials’ producers, there is a need for developing efficient and powerful quantitative tools that allow to model and forecast fossil fuel prices, CO2 emission allowances prices as well as electricity prices. This will improve decision making for all the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling fossil fuel prices, CO2 prices and electricity prices, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider all of them together. This paper focuses on both building a multivariate model for the aforementioned prices and comparing its results with those of univariate ones, in terms of prediction accuracy (univariate and multivariate models are compared for a large span of days, all in the first 4 months in 2011) as well as extracting common features in the volatilities of the prices of all these relevant magnitudes. The common features in volatility are extracted by means of a conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic factor model which allows to solve the curse of dimensionality problem that commonly arises when estimating multivariate GARCH models. Additionally, the common volatility factors obtained are useful for improving the forecasting intervals and have a nice economical interpretation. Besides, the results obtained and methodology proposed can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets

The 'Big DP' hypothesis : new evidence from gender agreement in a Shipibo-Spanish language contact situation

Previous evidence suggests clitics and determiners do not enter the same type of gender agreement relations in contact varieties of Spanish, despite proposals that treat clitics as determiners (big DP - Determiner Phrase - hypothesis) (Uriagereka 1995; Cecchetto 1999, 2000; Belletti 2005). We conducted a study on gender agreement between clitics and their antecedents, and determiners and nouns among adult Shipibo-Spanish bilinguals to answer the following question: Do Shipibo- Spanish bilingual speakers have similar patterns of local vs. long-distance gender agreement? Our results show gender agreement between D and N obtains categorically, but gender agreement between the clitic and its antecedent is at chance-level. We propose an alternative analysis for our data that does not assume the big DP hypothesis.Els treballs anteriors suggereixen que els clítics i els determinants no entren en el mateix tipus de relacions de concordança de gènere en varietats de contacte de l'espanyol, tot i les propostes que tracten els clítics com a determinants (hipòtesi del SD gros) (Uriagereka 1995; Cecchetto 1999, 2000; Belletti 2005). Hem realitzat un estudi sobre la concordança de gènere entre els clítics i els seus antecedents, i els determinants i els noms entre els bilingües adults shipibo-espanyol per respondre a la pregunta: Els parlants bilingües shipibo-espanyol tenen patrons similars de concordança de gènere local vs. concordança de gènere a llarga distància? Els nostres resultats mostren que la concordança de gènere entre D i N es fa categòricament, però la concordança de gènere entre el clític i el seu antecedents es producte de l'atzar. Proposem una anàlisi alternativa per a les nostres dades que no assumeixi la hipòtesi del SD gros

Diseño de propuesta de mejoramiento para los procesos de justicia del juzgado administrativo #8 de descongestión de Bogotá a través de herramientas Lean

Ingeniero (a) IndustrialPregrad

Preliminary feasibility of near-infrared spectroscopy to authenticate grazing in dairy goats through milk and faeces analysis

Nowadays, society demands certification and authentication methodologies that are able to clarify the origin of different livestock products. This is considered of paramount importance in order to not only provide accurate information to consumers, but also to protect producers against fraudulent practices. In this context, the aim of this study is to establish a methodology to authenticate the grazing activity of dairy goats. To achieve this, milk and faeces samples were analysed using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy. The good results obtained in discriminant models demonstrated differences in both types of matrices when the two feeding regimes were compared. The development of this methodology could extend its use not only in dairy systems of goats but also in other animal species and systems

Guía para la prevención de violencia sexual en situaciones de emergencia y desastres

Curso de Especial InterésEl presente trabajo tiene como objetivo la promoción de la salud sexual y reproductiva a través de la prevención de violencia sexual en situaciones de emergencia, mediante la elaboración de una guía diseñada para padres, madres cuidadores y cuidadoras que brinda una explicación de de forma clara y adecuada permitiendo prevenir la violencia sexual en situaciones de emergencia, los resultados concluyen que la guía cuenta con un lenguaje y características apropiadas para la población objeto.101 p.1. Resumen 2. Justificacioón 3. Marco teórico 4. Objetivos de la investigación 5. Metodologia 6. Estudio de mercadeo 7. Resultados 8. Discusión 9. Conclusiones 10. Recomendaciones 11. Referencias 12. ApéndicesPregradoPsicólog

Concepciones, intenciones y prácticas docentes que usan el cuerpo y el movimiento para potencializar el desarrollo integral de los niños en la educación inicial

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo revelar cuales son las concepciones, intenciones y prácticas de los maestros que usan el cuerpo y el movimiento para potencializar el desarrollo integral de los niños en la Educación Inicial. Este es un estudio cualitativo, en donde las participantes fueron 4 profesoras de dos jardines de Bogotá, Colombia. Los datos fueron recogidos a través de observaciones no participantes y de entrevistas semiestructuradas. Se encontró que existe una carencia en la capacidad de integrar todas las dimensiones del desarrollo, ya que las maestras se enfocan en componentes individuales, como la motricidad y las funciones cognitivas, y les restan importancia a otros aspectos del desarrollo, como las competencias sociales o la relación con el medio. Se sugiere realizar más estudios que aporten evidencia a los resultados hallados en la presente investigación y que sean un insumo a la discusión de la problemática que las autoras sugieren.The object of the present research is to reveal the conceptions, intentions and practices of teachers who use the body and movement to enhance the integral development of children in initial education. This is a qualitative study, where the participants were four teachers from some gardens of Bogotá, Colombia. The data were collected through non-participating observers and semi-structured interviews. It was found that there is a lack of capacity to integrate all dimensions of development, since teachers focus on individual components such as motor and cognitive functions and downplay other aspects of development. It is suggested to do more studies that provide evidence to the results found in the present research and that are an input to the discussion of the problema that the authors suggest