Performance improvement via bagging in probabilistic prediction of chaotic time series using similarity of attractors and LOOCV predictable horizon

Recently, we have presented a method of probabilistic prediction of chaotic time series. The method employs learning machines involving strong learners capable of making predictions with desirably long predictable horizons, where, however, usual ensemble mean for making representative prediction is not effective when there are predictions with shorter predictable horizons. Thus, the method selects a representative prediction from the predictions generated by a number of learning machines involving strong learners as follows: first, it obtains plausible predictions holding large similarity of attractors with the training time series and then selects the representative prediction with the largest predictable horizon estimated via LOOCV (leave-one-out cross-validation). The method is also capable of providing average and/or safe estimation of predictable horizon of the representative prediction. We have used CAN2s (competitive associative nets) for learning piecewise linear approximation of nonlinear function as strong learners in our previous study, and this paper employs bagging (bootstrap aggregating) to improve the performance, which enables us to analyze the validity and the effectiveness of the method

Home-Based, Square-Stepping Exercise Program Among Older Adults with Multiple Sclerosis: Results of A Feasibility Randomized Controlled Study

There is very little known about exercise rehabilitation approaches for older adults with multiple sclerosis (MS), yet this growing segment of the MS population experiences declines in cognition and mobility associated with disease progression and aging. We conducted a RCT examining the feasibility of a 12-week, home-based Square-Stepping Exercise (SSE) program in older adults with MS. Older adults with MS (N = 26) with mild-to-moderate levels of disability were recruited and randomized into the intervention (i.e., SSE) or a minimal activity, attention-control conditions. Participants in the SSE condition received a mat for home-based practice of the step patterns, an instruction manual, and a logbook along with a pedometer for monitoring compliance. Both conditions received weekly Skype™ calls and had biweekly meetings with an exercise trainer. Feasibility was assessed based on process, resource, management and scientific outcomes. Regarding scientific outcomes, participants in both conditions completed in-lab assessments before and after the 12-week period. Twenty-five participants completed the study (96%) and the total cost of the study was $13,387.00 USD. Pedometer data demonstrated good compliance with the SSE intervention condition. Effect sizes calculated for all treatment outcomes ranged from small-to-moderate for both mobility and cognitive variables between the intervention and attention-control conditions, thereby providing preliminary evidence that participation in the SSE program may improve cognition and mobility function. The results support the feasibility, acceptability, and possible efficacy of a home-based SSE intervention for older adults with MS

The Healthy Mind, Healthy Mobility Trial: A Novel Exercise Program For Older Adults

BACKGROUND: More evidence is needed to conclude that a specific program of exercise and/or cognitive training warrants prescription for the prevention of cognitive decline. We examined the effect of a group-based standard exercise program for older adults, with and without dual-task training, on cognitive function in older adults without dementia. METHODS: We conducted a proof-of-concept, single-blinded, 26-wk randomized controlled trial whereby participants recruited from preexisting exercise classes at the Canadian Centre for Activity and Aging in London, Ontario, were randomized to the intervention group (exercise + dual-task [EDT]) or the control group (exercise only [EO]). Each week (2 or 3 d · wk(-1)), both groups accumulated a minimum of 50 min of aerobic exercise (target 75 min) from standard group classes and completed 45 min of beginner-level square-stepping exercise. The EDT group was also required to answer cognitively challenging questions while doing beginner-level square-stepping exercise (i.e., dual-task training). The effect of interventions on standardized global cognitive function (GCF) scores at 26 wk was compared between the groups using the linear mixed effects model approach. RESULTS: Participants (n = 44; 68% female; mean [SD] age: 73.5 [7.2] yr) had on average, objective evidence of cognitive impairment (Montreal Cognitive Assessment scores, mean [SD]: 24.9 [1.9]) but not dementia (Mini-Mental State Examination scores, mean [SD]: 28.8 [1.2]). After 26 wk, the EDT group showed greater improvement in GCF scores compared with the EO group (difference between groups in mean change [95% CI]: 0.20 SD [0.01-0.39], P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: A 26-wk group-based exercise program combined with dual-task training improved GCF in community-dwelling older adults without dementia

Cognitive Changes Following Multiple-Modality Exercise And Mind-Motor Training In Older Adults With Subjective Cognitive Complaints: The M4 Study

Background We investigated the effects of multiple-modality exercise with additional mind-motor training on cognition in community-dwelling older adults with subjective cognitive complaints. Methods Participants (n = 127, mean age 67.5 [7.3] years, 71% women) were randomized to receive 45 minutes of multiple-modality exercise with additional 15 minutes of either mind-motor training (M4, n = 63) or control (balance, range of motion and breathing exercises [M2, n = 64]). In total, both groups exercised 60 minutes/day, 3 days/week, for 24 weeks. Standardized global cognitive functioning (GCF), concentration, reasoning, planning, and memory were assessed at 24 weeks and after a 28-week no-contact follow-up. Results There were no significant differences in the study primary outcomes. The M4 group, however, showed trends for greater improvements in GCF and memory (both, P = .07) compared to the M2 group at 24 weeks. Significant differences between group in GCF (P = .03) and memory (P= .02) were observed after the 28-week no-contact follow-up favouring the M4 group. Discussion Additional mind-motor training did not impart immediate greater benefits to cognition among the study participants

SQUARE STEPPING EXERCISE E EXERCÍCIOS BÁSICOS NA COGNIÇÃO DE IDOSOS

http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/010283085719O objetivo do presente estudo foi comparar as funções cognitivas de idosos antes e após dois protocolos de intervenção: exercícios básicos combinados com o Square Stepping Exercise (COM) e apenas exercícios básicos (EB). Todos foram avaliados antes e depois dos 4 meses de intervenção por meio do Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) e do Teste Winsconsin de Classificação de Cartas (TWCC). Os resultados mostraram que ambos os grupos melhoraram o estado cognitivo global, mas que apenas o COM apresentou melhora específica em abstração e flexibilidade mental. Assim, o treinamento combinado de exercícios básicos e SSE parece ser mais efetivo para a cognição quando comparado com um treinamento exclusivamente com exercícios básicos.Palavras-Chave: Idosos. Cognição. Exercício físico

Degenerative changes in the appendicular joints of ancient human populations from the Japan Islands

Degenerative changes in six major limb joints were investigated to compare their prevalence among five ancient skeletal populations from the Japan Islands. The populations assessed in this study consisted of the farmers in the northern Kyushu/Yamaguchi area and the foragers from the northwestern Kyushu area from the Yayoi period (5th century BC to 3rd century AD); the Okhotsk (5th to 12th centuries AD) foragers from Hokkaido and Sakhalin; the common people from medieval Kamakura (12th to 14th centuries AD) in Kanto, central Japan; and the early-modern farmers (17th to 19th centuries AD) from Kumejima, in the southernmost island chain (Ryukyu Islands). Crude prevalence comparisons showed that the shoulder and hip joints were principally affected in early-modern Kumejima and medieval Kamakura, which contrasted with the high prevalence of elbow and knee joint changes in the Okhotsk people. The heavy dependence on marine mammals and fish for dietary protein intake probably required flexion and extension movements of the most severely degenerated joints in the Okhotsk people. The northern Kyushu/Yamaguchi and northwestern Kyushu Yayoi peoples were more affected by degeneration in the wrist joints than others, possibly due to their use of innovative tools such as stone or shell knives and harpoons. A multivariate logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, region, and sex as the predictor variables for degenerative changes in joints, was applied to only the two samples from Kumejima and Kamakura (including previously reported spine data) because of their better preservation. This revealed differences in the prevalence of changes in some joints; for example, age-related changes were recognized. The Kumejima people were more commonly affected by hip and knee joint changes, whereas the Kamakura people were more commonly affected by changes to apophyseal joints. Because a stable isotope analysis indicated that the trophic levels of the two populations were almost the same, the pattern of degenerative changes would have reflected differences in their specific workloads, such as wet rice cultivation using a peculiar hoe by the Kumejima people. This study, combining multivariate logistic regression analysis of degenerative joint changes and stable isotope analyses, uses large skeletal populations to add clarity to the actual rigors of ancient life. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA

Exercise, diet, and weight loss

Japan is one of the most rapidly aging countries in the world. “Healthy Japan 21” is a Japanese government initiative promoting lifestyle-related disease prevention, health promotion, and successful aging. Increasing physical activity participation among older Japanese, the least physically active of any age group, is especially important for preventing frailty and chronic disease, and the associated health care expenditure. Informed by the research we have to date, the following evidence-based conclusions can be drawn relative to exercise and physical activity for the obese population. A combination of aerobic exercise, resistance exercise and physical activities, in addition to proper diet (mostly caloric restriction: 1200 kcal for women and 1680 kcal for men for a certain period of time), is more effective than either form of intervention alone for reducing body weight, visceral fat, blood pressure, and many other negative health-related variables. Exercise habituation in conjunction with proper diet is also most effective for improving vital age. Incorporating and adhering to these lifestyle factors, coupled with adherence to other known health modifiers (reduced stress, improved sleep, etc) will help reduce individual and population obesity and improve national health