Taming the Hurricane of Acquisition Cost Growth – Or At Least Predicting It

Cost growth is a persistent adversary to efficient budgeting in the Department of Defense. Despite myriad studies to uncover causes of this cost growth, few of the proposed remedies have made a meaningful impact. A key reason may be that DoD cost estimates are formulated using the highly unrealistic assumption that a program’s current baseline characteristics will not change in the future. Using a weather forecasting analogy, the authors demonstrate how a statistical approach may be used to account for these inevitable baseline changes and identify related cost growth trends. These trends are then used to reduce the error in initial acquisition cost estimates by over one third for major defense acquisition programs, representing a more efficient allocation of $6 billion annually

Minimal breast milk transfer of rituximab, a monoclonal antibody used in neurological conditions.

ObjectiveTo determine the transfer of rituximab, an anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody widely used for neurologic conditions, into mature breast milk.MethodsBreast milk samples were collected from 9 women with MS who received rituximab 500 or 1,000 mg intravenous once or twice while breastfeeding from November 2017 to April 2019. Serial breast milk samples were collected before infusion and at 8 hours, 24 hours, 7 days, and 18-21 days after rituximab infusion in 4 patients. Five additional patients provided 1-2 samples at various times after rituximab infusion.ResultsThe median average rituximab concentration in mature breast milk was low at 0.063 μg/mL (range 0.046-0.097) in the 4 patients with serial breast milk collection, with an estimated median absolute infant dose of 0.0094 mg/kg/d and a relative infant dose (RID) of 0.08% (range 0.06%-0.10%). Most patients had a maximum concentration at 1-7 days after infusion. The maximum concentration occurred in a woman with a single breast milk sample and was 0.29 μg/mL at 11 days postinfusion, which corresponds with an estimated RID of 0.33%. Rituximab concentration in milk was virtually undetectable by 90 days postinfusion.ConclusionsWe determined minimal transfer of rituximab into mature breast milk. The RID for rituximab was less than 0.4% and well below theoretically acceptable levels of less than 10%. Low oral bioavailability would probably also limit the absorption of rituximab by the newborn. In women with serious autoimmune neurologic conditions, monoclonal antibody therapy may afford an acceptable benefit to risk ratio, supporting both maternal treatment and breastfeeding

MODELING TRIBAL LEADERSHIP DYNAMICS: AN OPINION DYNAMICS MODEL OF PASHTUN LEADERSHIP SELECTION

We propose a new approach to modeling the selection of leaders in Pashtun tribal society. Pashtuns are the largest tribal group in Afghanistan. In traditional Pashtun society, leadership is manifested as an informal power system where potential leaders gain and maintain their position by means of group consensus. Leadership power is spread over three areas of influence resulting in a triad of leadership roles. These leaders compete, vying for power and control based on public opinion. The addition of extremists into this system who utilize threats of harm to gain power disrupts the traditional system, altering the balance of power. In this research we implement a bounded confidence opinion dynamics model to describe the dynamics of Pashtun leadership selection and to describe the changes resulting from the addition of extremists to the system. Keywords

The power of pictures: Vertical picture angles in power pictures

Abstract: Conventional wisdom suggests that variations in vertical picture angle cause the subject to appear more powerful when depicted from below and less powerful when depicted from above. However, do the media actually use such associations to represent individual differences in power? We argue that the diverse perspectives of evolutionary, social learning, and embodiment theories all suggest that the association between verticality and power is relatively automatic and should, therefore, be visible in the portrayal of powerful and powerless individuals in the media. Four archival studies (with six samples) provide empirical evidence for this hypothesis and indicate that a salience power context reinforces this effect. In addition, two experimental studies confirm these effects for individuals producing media content. We discuss potential implications of this effect

Pan-viral serology implicates enteroviruses in acute flaccid myelitis.

Since 2012, the United States of America has experienced a biennial spike in pediatric acute flaccid myelitis (AFM)1-6. Epidemiologic evidence suggests non-polio enteroviruses (EVs) are a potential etiology, yet EV RNA is rarely detected in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)2. CSF from children with AFM (n = 42) and other pediatric neurologic disease controls (n = 58) were investigated for intrathecal antiviral antibodies, using a phage display library expressing 481,966 overlapping peptides derived from all known vertebrate and arboviruses (VirScan). Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) of AFM CSF RNA (n = 20 cases) was also performed, both unbiased sequencing and with targeted enrichment for EVs. Using VirScan, the viral family significantly enriched by the CSF of AFM cases relative to controls was Picornaviridae, with the most enriched Picornaviridae peptides belonging to the genus Enterovirus (n = 29/42 cases versus 4/58 controls). EV VP1 ELISA confirmed this finding (n = 22/26 cases versus 7/50 controls). mNGS did not detect additional EV RNA. Despite rare detection of EV RNA, pan-viral serology frequently identified high levels of CSF EV-specific antibodies in AFM compared with controls, providing further evidence for a causal role of non-polio EVs in AFM

The VLBA Galactic Plane Survey -- VGaPS

This paper presents accurate absolute positions from a 24 GHz Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) search for compact extragalactic sources in an area where the density of known calibrators with precise coordinates is low. The goals were to identify additional sources suitable for use as phase calibrators for galactic sources, determine their precise positions, and produce radio images. In order to achieve these goals, we developed a new software package, PIMA, for determining group delays from wide-band data with much lower detection limit. With the use of PIMA we have detected 327 sources out of 487 targets observed in three 24 hour VLBA experiments. Among the 327 detected objects, 176 are within 10 degrees of the Galactic plane. This VGaPS catalogue of source positions, plots of correlated flux density versus projected baseline length, contour plots, as well as weighted CLEAN images and calibrated visibility data in FITS format, are available on the Web at http://astrogeo.org/vgaps. Approximately one half of objects from the 24 GHz catalogue were observed at dual band 8.6 GHz and 2.3 GHz experiments. Position differences at 24 GHz versus 8.6/2.3 GHz for all but two objects on average are strictly within reported uncertainties. We found that for two objects with complex structure positions at different frequencies correspond to different components of a source.Comment: 23 pages, 20 figures, 11 tables; accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journal; minor corrections to the text are made; two machine readable tables in electronic form are availanle from the preprint sourc

Protein prediction for trait mapping in diverse populations

Genetically regulated gene expression has helped elucidate the biological mechanisms underlying complex traits. Improved high-throughput technology allows similar interrogation of the genetically regulated proteome for understanding complex trait mechanisms. Here, we used the Trans-omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) Multi-omics pilot study, which comprises data from Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), to optimize genetic predictors of the plasma proteome for genetically regulated proteome-wide association studies (PWAS) in diverse populations. We built predictive models for protein abundances using data collected in TOPMed MESA, for which we have measured 1,305 proteins by a SOMAscan assay. We compared predictive models built via elastic net regression to models integrating posterior inclusion probabilities estimated by fine-mapping SNPs prior to elastic net. In order to investigate the transferability of predictive models across ancestries, we built protein prediction models in all four of the TOPMed MESA populations, African American (n = 183), Chinese (n = 71), European (n = 416), and Hispanic/Latino (n = 301), as well as in all populations combined. As expected, fine-mapping produced more significant protein prediction models, especially in African ancestries populations, potentially increasing opportunity for discovery. When we tested our TOPMed MESA models in the independent European INTERVAL study, fine-mapping improved cross-ancestries prediction for some proteins. Using GWAS summary statistics from the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) study, which comprises ∼50,000 Hispanic/Latinos, African Americans, Asians, Native Hawaiians, and Native Americans, we applied S-PrediXcan to perform PWAS for 28 complex traits. The most protein-trait associations were discovered, colocalized, and replicated in large independent GWAS using proteome prediction model training populations with similar ancestries to PAGE. At current training population sample sizes, performance between baseline and fine-mapped protein prediction models in PWAS was similar, highlighting the utility of elastic net. Our predictive models in diverse populations are publicly available for use in proteome mapping methods at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4837327

Genomic and serologic characterization of enterovirus A71 brainstem encephalitis

OBJECTIVE: In 2016, Catalonia experienced a pediatric brainstem encephalitis outbreak caused by enterovirus A71 (EV-A71). Conventional testing identified EV in the periphery but rarely in CSF. Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) and CSF pan-viral serology (VirScan) were deployed to enhance viral detection and characterization. METHODS: RNA was extracted from the CSF (n = 20), plasma (n = 9), stool (n = 15), and nasopharyngeal samples (n = 16) from 10 children with brainstem encephalitis and 10 children with meningitis or encephalitis. Pathogens were identified using mNGS. Available CSF from cases (n = 12) and pediatric other neurologic disease controls (n = 54) were analyzed with VirScan with a subset (n = 9 and n = 50) validated by ELISA. RESULTS: mNGS detected EV in all samples positive by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) (n = 25). In qRT-PCR-negative samples (n = 35), mNGS found virus in 23% (n = 8, 3 CSF samples). Overall, mNGS enhanced EV detection from 42% (25/60) to 57% (33/60) (p-value = 0.013). VirScan and ELISA increased detection to 92% (11/12) compared with 46% (4/12) for CSF mNGS and qRT-PCR (p-value = 0.023). Phylogenetic analysis confirmed the EV-A71 strain clustered with a neurovirulent German EV-A71. A single amino acid substitution (S241P) in the EVA71 VP1 protein was exclusive to the CNS in one subject. CONCLUSION: mNGS with VirScan significantly increased the CNS detection of EVs relative to qRT-PCR, and the latter generated an antigenic profile of the acute EV-A71 immune response. Genomic analysis confirmed the close relation of the outbreak EV-A71 and neuroinvasive German EV-A71. A S241P substitution in VP1 was found exclusively in the CSF.Grants supporting this project include the National Multiple Sclerosis Society and the American Academy of Neurology award FAN-1608-25607 (R.D.S.), Clinical Research Training Scholarship P0534134 (P.S.R.), Sandler and William K. Bowes Jr Foundations (M.R.W., J.L.D., L.M.K., H.A.S., K.C.Z.), Rachleff Family Foundation (M.R.W.), and NINDS of the NIH under award K08NS096117 (M.R.W.) and F31NS113432 (K.E.L.). This study was partially supported by a grant from the Spanish National Health Institute [grant number PI15CIII-00020] and the European Regional Development Fund (FEDER funds). UCSF Biomedical Sciences Program (I.A.H., K.E.L.), UCSF Medical Scientist Training Program (K.E.L.), and the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub (J.E.P., W.W., C.K.C., J.L.D., E.D.C.) also supported this project.S

In the Laboratory and during Free-Flight: Old Honey Bees Reveal Learning and Extinction Deficits that Mirror Mammalian Functional Decline

Loss of brain function is one of the most negative and feared aspects of aging. Studies of invertebrates have taught us much about the physiology of aging and how this progression may be slowed. Yet, how aging affects complex brain functions, e.g., the ability to acquire new memory when previous experience is no longer valid, is an almost exclusive question of studies in humans and mammalian models. In these systems, age related cognitive disorders are assessed through composite paradigms that test different performance tasks in the same individual. Such studies could demonstrate that afflicted individuals show the loss of several and often-diverse memory faculties, and that performance usually varies more between aged individuals, as compared to conspecifics from younger groups. No comparable composite surveying approaches are established yet for invertebrate models in aging research. Here we test whether an insect can share patterns of decline similar to those that are commonly observed during mammalian brain aging. Using honey bees, we combine restrained learning with free-flight assays. We demonstrate that reduced olfactory learning performance correlates with a reduced ability to extinguish the spatial memory of an abandoned nest location (spatial memory extinction). Adding to this, we show that learning performance is more variable in old honey bees. Taken together, our findings point to generic features of brain aging and provide the prerequisites to model individual aspects of learning dysfunction with insect models

Group Singing as a Resource for the Development of a Healthy Public

A growing body of evidence points to a wide range of benefits arising from participation in group singing. Group singing requires participants to engage with each other in a simultaneous musical dialogue in a pluralistic and emergent context, creating a coherent cultural expression through the reflexive negotiation of (musical) meaning manifest in the collective power of the human voice. As such, group singing might be taken – both literally and figuratively – as a potent form of ‘healthy public’, creating an ‘ideal’ community which participants can subsequently mobilise as a positive resource for everyday life. The experiences of a group of singers (n=78) who had participated in an outdoor singing project were collected and analysed using a three-layer research design consisting of: distributed data generation and interpretation, considered against comparative data from other singing groups (n=88); a focus group workshop (n=11); an unstructured interview (n=2). The study confirmed an expected perception of the social bonding effect of group singing, highlighting affordances for interpersonal attunement and attachment alongside a powerful individual sense of feeling ‘uplifted’. This study presents a novel perspective on group singing, highlighting the importance of participant experience as a means of understanding music as a holistic and complex adaptive system. It validates findings about group singing from previous studies - in particular the stability of the social bonding effect as a less variant characteristic in the face of environmental and other situational influences, alongside its capacity for mental health recovery. It establishes a subjective sociocultural and musical understanding of group singing, by expanding on these findings to centralise the importance of individual experience, and the consciousness of that experience as descriptive self-awareness. The ways in which participants describe and discuss their experiences of group singing and its benefits points to a complex interdependence between a number of musical, neurobiological and psychosocial mechanisms which might be independently and objectively analysed. An emerging theory is that at least some of the potency of group singing is as a resource where people can rehearse and perform ‘healthy’ relationships, further emphasising its potential as a resource for healthy publics