MODELING TRIBAL LEADERSHIP DYNAMICS: AN OPINION DYNAMICS MODEL OF PASHTUN LEADERSHIP SELECTION

Abstract

We propose a new approach to modeling the selection of leaders in Pashtun tribal society. Pashtuns are the largest tribal group in Afghanistan. In traditional Pashtun society, leadership is manifested as an informal power system where potential leaders gain and maintain their position by means of group consensus. Leadership power is spread over three areas of influence resulting in a triad of leadership roles. These leaders compete, vying for power and control based on public opinion. The addition of extremists into this system who utilize threats of harm to gain power disrupts the traditional system, altering the balance of power. In this research we implement a bounded confidence opinion dynamics model to describe the dynamics of Pashtun leadership selection and to describe the changes resulting from the addition of extremists to the system. Keywords