Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018.

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment). Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize the Thiel-Sen regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27. We used these techniques on probable and confirmed case counts with and without inclusion of suspected cases. Probabilistic projections were scored against the actual outbreak size of 54 EVD cases, using a log-likelihood score. With the stochastic model, using high, low, and zero estimates of vaccination coverage, the median outbreak sizes for probable and confirmed cases were 82 cases (95% prediction interval [PI]: 55, 156), 104 cases (95% PI: 58, 271), and 213 cases (95% PI: 64, 1450), respectively. With the Thiel-Sen regression model, the median outbreak size was estimated to be 65.0 probable and confirmed cases (95% PI: 48.8, 119.7). Among our three mathematical models, the stochastic model with suspected cases and high vaccine coverage predicted total outbreak sizes closest to the true outcome. Relatively simple mathematical models updated in real time may inform outbreak response teams with projections of total outbreak size and duration

Improving Efficiency and Quality of the Children’s ASD Diagnostic Pathway: Lessons Learned from Practice

The ‘autism diagnosis crisis’ and long waiting times for assessment are as yet unresolved, leading to undue stress and limiting\ud access to effective support. There is therefore a significant need for evidence to support practitioners in the development of\ud efficient services, delivering acceptable waiting times and effectively meeting guideline standards. This study reports statistically\ud significant reductions in waiting times for autism diagnostic assessment following a children’s health service improvement\ud programme. The average wait between referral and first appointment reduced from 14.2 to 10.4 weeks (t(21) = 4.3,\ud p < 0.05) and between referral and diagnosis shared, reduced from 270 to 122.5 days, (t(20) = 5.5, p < 0.05). The proportion\ud of girls identified increased from 5.6 to 2.7:1. Methods reported include: local improvement action planning; evidence based\ud pathways; systematic clinical data gathering and a training plan. This is a highly significant finding for many health services\ud wrestling with the challenges of demand and capacity for autism diagnosis and assessment

Effects of CYP3A4 and CYP2C9 genotype on systemic anastrozole and fulvestrant concentrations in SWOG S0226

Objective &amp; methods: This study tested associations of genotype-predicted activity of CYP3A4, other pharmacogenes, SLC28A7 (rs11648166) and ALPPL2 (rs28845026) with systemic concentrations of the endocrine therapies anastrozole and fulvestrant in SWOG S0226 trial participants. Results: Participants in the anastrozole-only arm with low CYP3A4 activity (i.e. CYP3A4*22 carriers) had higher systemic anastrozole concentrations than patients with high CYP3A4 activity (β-coefficient&nbsp;=&nbsp;10.03; 95% CI: 1.42, 18.6; p&nbsp;=&nbsp;0.025). In an exploratory analysis, participants with low CYP2C9 activity had lower anastrozole concentrations and higher fulvestrant concentrations than participants with high CYP2C9 activity. Conclusion: Inherited genetic variation in CYP3A4 and CYP2C9 may affect concentrations of endocrine therapy and may be useful to personalize dosing and improve treatment outcomes

A patient-reported pressure ulcer health-related quality of life instrument for use in prevention trials (PU-QOL-P): psychometric evaluation

Introduction: Pressure ulcer-specific patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments should be used to inform patient care and provide a strong evidence base for interventions aimed at preventing pressure ulcers. The aim was to carry out a comprehensive evaluation of the psychometric properties of a PRO instrument designed to assess symptoms and functional outcomes in patients at high-risk of developing pressure ulcers, the PU-QOL-P instrument. Methods: We modified the original PU-QOL instrument to be suitable for patients at high risk of pressure ulcer development based on feedback from patients, specialist nurses and PRO methodologists. The modified PU-QOL-P instrument was administered to a sub-set of patients participating in the PRESSURE 2 trial. Patients completed PU-QOL-P and SF12 instruments at baseline, weeks 1 and 3, and 30 days post-treatment. We undertook psychometric evaluation of the modified PU-QOL-P to test scale targeting, scaling assumptions, reliability, validity and responsiveness. Results: The analysis sample consisted of 617 patients that completed both instruments at baseline. We found that the PU-QOL-P instrument, consisting of nine PU-specific outcomes: three symptom and six function scales, meets established criteria for reliability, construct validity, and responsiveness. Internal consistency reliability was high with all scale Cronbach alpha > 0.795 (range 0.795–0.970). The factor analysis mostly supported the six-function scale structure. Scaling assumptions were satisfied; all item-total correlations above 0.30. Convergent validity was confirmed by significant correlations between hypothesized scales as expected. PU-QOL-P scales were responsive to change: mean scale scores from baseline to 30 days post-treatment were statistically significant for all scales apart the daily activities scale (effect sizes ranged from moderate to high). As expected, worse symptoms and functioning was observed in patients who had a category 1 or 2 PU compared to patients who did not have a PU. Conclusions: The PU-QOL-P provides a standardised method for assessing pressure ulcer-specific symptoms and functional outcomes for quantifying the benefits of associated interventions from the patient’s perspective. It can be used in research with adults at risk of pressure ulcer development in all UK healthcare settings

Long-term ocean and resource dynamics in a hotspot of climate change

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-MThe abundance, distribution, and size of marine species are linked to temperature and nutrient regimes and are profoundly affected by humans through exploitation and climate change. Yet little is known about long-term historical links between ocean environmental changes and resource abundance to provide context for current and potential future trends and inform conservation and management. We synthesize >4000 years of climate and marine ecosystem dynamics in a Northwest Atlantic region currently undergoing rapid changes, the Gulf of Maine and Scotian Shelf. This period spans the late Holocene cooling and recent warming and includes both Indigenous and European influence. We compare environmental records from instrumental, sedimentary, coral, and mollusk archives with ecological records from fossils, archaeological, historical, and modern data, and integrate future model projections of environmental and ecosystem changes. This multidisciplinary synthesis provides insight into multiple reference points and shifting baselines of environmental and ecosystem conditions, and projects a near-future departure from natural climate variability in 2028 for the Scotian Shelf and 2034 for the Gulf of Maine. Our work helps advancing integrative end-to-end modeling to improve the predictive capacity of ecosystem forecasts with climate change. Our results can be used to adjust marine conservation strategies and network planning and adapt ecosystem-based management with climate change

Adherence to isoniazid preventive therapy in Indonesian children: A quantitative and qualitative investigation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>It is recommended that young child contacts of sputum smear positive tuberculosis cases receive isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) but reported adherence is low and risk factors for poor adherence in children are largely unknown.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We prospectively determined rates of IPT adherence in children < 5 yrs in an Indonesian lung clinic. Possible risk factors for poor adherence, defined as ≤3 months prescription collection, were calculated using logistic regression. To further investigate adherence barriers in-depth interviews were conducted with caregivers of children with good and poor adherence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Eighty-two children eligible for IPT were included, 61 (74.4%) of which had poor adherence. High transport costs (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.1-10.2) and medication costs (OR 20.0, 95% CI 2.7-414.5) were significantly associated with poor adherence in univariate analysis. Access, medication barriers, disease and health service experience and caregiver TB and IPT knowledge and beliefs were found to be important determinants of adherence in qualitative analysis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Adherence to IPT in this setting in Indonesia is extremely low and may result from a combination of financial, knowledge, health service and medication related barriers. Successful reduction of childhood TB urgently requires evidence-based interventions that address poor adherence to IPT.</p

Establishing a core outcome set for peritoneal dialysis : report of the SONG-PD (standardized outcomes in nephrology-peritoneal dialysis) consensus workshop

Outcomes reported in randomized controlled trials in peritoneal dialysis (PD) are diverse, are measured inconsistently, and may not be important to patients, families, and clinicians. The Standardized Outcomes in Nephrology-Peritoneal Dialysis (SONG-PD) initiative aims to establish a core outcome set for trials in PD based on the shared priorities of all stakeholders. We convened an international SONG-PD stakeholder consensus workshop in May 2018 in Vancouver, Canada. Nineteen patients/caregivers and 51 health professionals attended. Participants discussed core outcome domains and implementation in trials in PD. Four themes relating to the formation of core outcome domains were identified: life participation as a main goal of PD, impact of fatigue, empowerment for preparation and planning, and separation of contributing factors from core factors. Considerations for implementation were identified: standardizing patient-reported outcomes, requiring a validated and feasible measure, simplicity of binary outcomes, responsiveness to interventions, and using positive terminology. All stakeholders supported inclusion of PD-related infection, cardiovascular disease, mortality, technique survival, and life participation as the core outcome domains for PD

Pressure RElieving Support SUrfaces: a Randomised Evaluation 2 (PRESSURE 2): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background Pressure ulcers represent a major burden to patients, carers and the healthcare system, affecting approximately 1 in 17 hospital and 1 in 20 community patients. They impact greatly on an individual’s functional status and health-related quality of life. The mainstay of pressure ulcer prevention practice is the provision of pressure redistribution support surfaces and patient repositioning. The aim of the PRESSURE 2 study is to compare the two main mattress types utilised within the NHS: high-specification foam and alternating pressure mattresses, in the prevention of pressure ulcers. Methods/Design PRESSURE 2 is a multicentre, open-label, randomised, double triangular, group sequential, parallel group trial. A maximum of 2954 ‘high-risk’ patients with evidence of acute illness will be randomised on a 1:1 basis to receive either a high-specification foam mattress or alternating-pressure mattress in conjunction with an electric profiling bed frame. The primary objective of the trial is to compare mattresses in terms of the time to developing a new Category 2 or above pressure ulcer by 30 days post end of treatment phase. Secondary endpoints include time to developing new Category 1 and 3 or above pressure ulcers, time to healing of pre-existing Category 2 pressure ulcers, health-related quality of life, cost-effectiveness, incidence of mattress change and safety. Validation objectives are to determine the responsiveness of the Pressure Ulcer Quality of Life-Prevention instrument and the feasibility of having a blinded endpoint assessment using photography. The trial will have a maximum of three planned analyses with unequally spaced reviews at event-driven coherent cut-points. The futility boundaries are constructed as non-binding to allow a decision for stopping early to be overruled by the Data Monitoring and Ethics Committee. Discussion The double triangular, group sequential design of the PRESSURE 2 trial will provide an efficient design through the possibility of early stopping for demonstrating either superiority, inferiority of mattresses or futility of the trial. The trial optimises the potential for producing robust clinical evidence on the effectiveness of two commonly used mattresses in clinical practice earlier than in a conventional design