Statistics of Certain Models of Evolution

In a recent paper, Newman surveys the literature on power law spectra in evolution, self-organised criticality and presents a model of his own to arrive at a conclusion that self-organised criticality is not necessary for evolution. Not only did he miss a key model (Ecolab) that has a clear self-organised critical mechanism, but also Newman's model exhibits the same mechanism that gives rise to power law behaviour as does Ecolab. Newman's model is, in fact, a ``mean field'' approximation of a self-organised critical system. In this paper, I have also implemented Newman's model using the Ecolab software, removing the restriction that the number of species remains constant. It turns out that the requirement of constant species number is non-trivial, leading to a global coupling between species that is similar in effect to the species interactions seen in Ecolab. In fact, the model must self-organise to a state where the long time average of speciations balances that of the extinctions, otherwise the system either collapses or explodes. In view of this, Newman's model does not provide the hoped-for counter example to the presence of self-organised criticality in evolution, but does provide a simple, almost analytic model that can used to understand more intricate models such as Ecolab.Comment: accepted in Phys Rev E.; RevTeX; See http://parallel.hpc.unsw.edu.au/rks/ecolab.html for more informatio

Trajectory Mapping and Applications to Data from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite

The problem of creating synoptic maps from asynoptically gathered trace gas data has prompted the development of a number of schemes. Most notable among these schemes are the Kalman filter, the Salby-Fourier technique, and constituent reconstruction. This paper explores a new technique called trajectory mapping. Trajectory mapping creates synoptic maps from asynoptically gathered data by advecting measurements backward or forward in time using analyzed wind fields. A significant portion of this work is devoted to an analysis of errors in synoptic trajectory maps associated with the calculation of individual parcel trajectories. In particular, we have considered (1) calculational errors; (2) uncertainties in the values and locations of constituent measurements, (3) errors incurred by neglecting diabatic effects, and (4) sensitivity to differences in wind field analyses. These studies reveal that the global fields derived from the advection of large numbers of measurements are relatively insensitive to the errors in the individual trajectories. The trajectory mapping technique has been successfully applied to a variety of problems. In this paper, the following two applications demonstrate the usefulness of the technique: an analysis of dynamical wave-breaking events and an examination of Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite data accuracy

Improving Fermi Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecraft's ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45% improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters

Trajectory mapping: A tool for validation of trace gas observations

We investigate the effectiveness of trajectory mapping(TM) as a data validation tool. TM combines a dynamical model of the atmosphere with trace gas observations to provide more statistically robust estimates of instrument performance over much broader geographic areas than traditional techniques are able to provide. We present four detailed case studies selected so that the traditional techniques are expected to work well. In each case the TM results are equivalent to or improve upon the measurement comparisons performed with traditional approaches. The TM results are statistically more robust than those achieved using traditional approaches since the TM comparisons occur over a much larger range of geophysical variability. In the first case study we compare ozone data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) with Microwave Limb Sounder(MLS). TM comparisons appear to introduce little to no error as compared to the traditional approach. In the second case study we compare ozone data from HALOE with that from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment TT(SAGE TT). TM results in differences of less than 5% as compared to the traditional approach at altitudes between 18 and 25 km and less than 10% at altitudes between 25 and 40 km.In the third case study we show that ozone profiles generated from HALOE data using TM compare well with profiles from five European ozonesondes. In the fourth case study we evaluate the precision of MLS H20 using TM and find typical precision uncertainties of 3-7% at most latitudes and altitudes. The TM results agree well with previous estimates but are the result of a global analysis of the data rather than an analysis in the limited latitude bands in which traditional approaches work. Finally, sensitivity studies using the MLS H20 data show the following: (1) a combination of forward and backward trajectory calculations minimize uncertainties in isentropic TM; (2) although the uncertainty of the technique increases with trajectory duration,TM calculations of up to 14 days can provide reliable information for use in data validation studies; (3) a correlation coincidence criterion of 400 km produces the best TM results under most circumstances; (4) TM performs well compared to (and sometimes better than) traditional approaches at all latitudes and in most seasons and; (5) TM introduces no statistically significant biases at altitudes between 22 and 40 km

CANDELS: The Contribution of the Observed Galaxy Population to Cosmic Reionization

We present measurements of the specific ultraviolet luminosity density from a sample of 483 galaxies at 6<z<8. These galaxies were selected from new deep near-infrared HST imaging from the CANDELS, HUDF09 and ERS programs. In contrast to the majority of previous analyses, which assume that the distribution of galaxy ultraviolet (UV) luminosities follows a Schechter distribution, and that the distribution continues to luminosities far below our observable limit, we investigate the contribution to reionization from galaxies which we can observe, free from these assumptions. We find that the observable population of galaxies can sustain a fully reionized IGM at z=6, if the average ionizing photon escape fraction (f_esc) is ~30%. A number of previous studies have measured UV luminosity densities at these redshifts that vary by 5X, with many concluding that galaxies could not complete reionization by z=6 unless a large population of galaxies fainter than the detection limit were invoked, or extremely high values of f_esc were present. The observed UV luminosity density from our observed galaxy samples at z=7-8 is not sufficient to maintain a fully reionized IGM unless f_esc>50%. Combining our observations with constraints on the emission rate of ionizing photons from Ly-alpha forest observations at z=6, we can constrain f_esc<34% (2-sigma) if the observed galaxies are the only contributors to reionization, or <13% (2-sigma) if the luminosity function extends to M_UV = -13. These escape fractions are sufficient to complete reionization by z=6. These constraints imply that the volume ionized fraction of the IGM becomes less than unity at z>7, consistent with a number of complementary reionization probes. If faint galaxies dominate reionization, future JWST observations will probe deep enough to see them, providing an indirect constraint on the ionizing photon escape fraction [abridged].Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, Submitted to the Astrophysical Journa

Toward a Closed Loop, Integrated Biocompatible Biopolymer Wound Dressing Patch for Detection and Prevention of Chronic Wound Infections

Chronic wound infections represent a significant burden to healthcare providers globally. Often, chronic wound healing is impeded by the presence of infection within the wound or wound bed. This can result in an increased healing time, healthcare cost and poor patient outcomes. Thus, there is a need for dressings that help the wound heal, in combination with early detection of wound infections to support prompt treatment. In this study, we demonstrate a novel, biocompatible wound dressing material, based on Polyhydroxyalkanoates, doped with graphene platelets, which can be used as an electrochemical sensing substrate for the detection of a common wound pathogen, Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Through the detection of the redox active secondary metabolite, pyocyanin, we demonstrate that a dressing can be produced that will detect the presence of pyocyanin across clinically relevant concentrations. Furthermore, we show that this sensor can be used to identify the presence of pyocyanin in a culture of P. aeruginosa. Overall, the sensor substrate presented in this paper represents the first step toward a new dressing with the capacity to promote wound healing, detect the presence of infection and release antimicrobial drugs, on demand, to optimized healing

Mitigation of Crack Damage in Metallic Materials

A system designed to mitigate or heal crack damage in metallic materials has been developed where the protected material or component is coated with a low-melting temperature film. After a crack is formed, the material is heated, melting the film which then infiltrates the crack opening through capillary action. Upon solidification, the healing material inhibits further crack damage in two ways. While the crack healing material is intact, it acts like an adhesive that bonds or bridges the crack faces together. After fatigue loading damages, the healing material in the crack mouth inhibits further crack growth by creating artificially-high crack closure levels. Mechanical test data show that this method sucessfully arrests or retards crack growth in laboratory specimens

Improving FermiI Orbit Determination and Prediction in an Uncertain Atmospheric Drag Environment

Orbit determination and prediction of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope trajectory is strongly impacted by the unpredictability and variability of atmospheric density and the spacecrafts ballistic coefficient. Operationally, Global Positioning System point solutions are processed with an extended Kalman filter for orbit determination, and predictions are generated for conjunction assessment with secondary objects. When these predictions are compared to Joint Space Operations Center radar-based solutions, the close approach distance between the two predictions can greatly differ ahead of the conjunction. This work explores strategies for improving prediction accuracy and helps to explain the prediction disparities. Namely, a tuning analysis is performed to determine atmospheric drag modeling and filter parameters that can improve orbit determination as well as prediction accuracy. A 45 improvement in three-day prediction accuracy is realized by tuning the ballistic coefficient and atmospheric density stochastic models, measurement frequency, and other modeling and filter parameters