Observational Evidence for Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Propagation Relative to Environmental Steering

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469Theories of vortex motion due to the variations of the Coriolis parameter and environmental vorticity are compared to observations of tropical cyclone motion relative to computed "steering flows" using previously published composite data. The composite results are manipulated to obtain a vector quantity for the difference between tropical cyclone motion and steering, and this vector difference is termed "propagation." The properties of these propagation vectors within various composite data stratifications provide tentative support for nonlinear numerical results such as: (i) the general magnitude and direction of the β-induced propagation; (ii) the dependence of such propagation on the outer-wind strength of the tropical cyclone; and (iii) the dependence of such propagation on the direction of the environmental vorticity gradient. Ambiguities in the composite data are discussed with respect to linear and nonlinear theories of tropical cyclone propagation, and several new composite data stratifications are suggested to facilitate detecting individual propagation-inducing processes.Naval Postgraduate School in support of the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Motion research initiativeNaval Postgraduate School in support of the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Motion research initiativ

Factors associated with changes of state of foot conformation and lameness in a flock of sheep

The aim of this research was to investigate transitions between foot conformation, lameness and footrot in sheep. Data came from one lowland flock of approximately 700 ewes studied for 18 months. Multilevel multistate analyses of transitions between good and poor foot conformation states in ewes, and lame and non-lame states in ewes and lambs were conducted. Key results were that the longer sheep had feet in good conformation, the more likely they were to stay in this state; similarly, the longer a ewe was not lame the more likely she was not to become lame. Ewes with poor foot conformation were more likely to become lame (OR: 1.83 (1.24-2.67)) and to be > 4 years (OR: 1.50(1.09-2.05)). Ewes with footrot were less likely to move to good foot conformation (OR: 0.48 (0.31-0.75)) and were more likely to become lame (OR: 3.81(2.60-5.59)). Ewes lame for > 4 days and not treated with parenteral antibacterials had a higher risk of developing (OR: 2.00 (1.08-3.61)), or remaining in (OR: 0.49 (0.29-0.95)) poor foot conformation compared with ewes never lame. Treatment of ewes lame with footrot with parenteral antibacterials increased the probability of transition from a lame to a non-lame state (OR: 1.46 (1.05-2.02)) and these ewes, even if lame for > 4 days, were not more likely to develop poor foot conformation. The risk of a ewe becoming lame increased when at least one of her offspring was lame (OR: 2.03 (1.42-2.92)) and when the prevalence of lameness in the group was ≥ 5% (OR: 1.42 (1.06-1.92)). Lambs were at increased risk of becoming lame when they were male (OR: 1.42 (1.01-2.01)), single (OR: 1.86 (1.34-2.59)) or had a lame dam or sibling (OR: 3.10 (1.81-5.32)). There were no explanatory variables associated with lambs recovering from lameness. We conclude that poor foot conformation in ewes increases the susceptibility of ewes to become lame and that this can arise from untreated footrot. Treatment of ewes lame with footrot with parenteral antibacterials leads to recovery from lameness and prevents or resolves poor foot conformation which then reduces the susceptibility to further lameness with footrot

Neutralizing antibodies against porcine circovirus type 2 in liquid pooled plasma contribute to the biosafety of commercially manufactured spray-dried porcine plasma

Neutralizing antibodies (NA) inherently present in pooled plasma collected at commercial abattoirs may provide some protection against potential porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) infectivity of plasma. Moreover, these NA may also contribute to the biosafety of spray-dried porcine plasma (SDPP). The objective of the study was to characterize and quantify the PCV2 antibody neutralizing capacity in pooled liquid porcine plasma and SDPP samples collected from industrial spray-drying facilities located in the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States and the Northeast region of Spain. In the United States, PCV2 NA was determined in 1 sample of pooled liquid plasma from commercial spray-drying plants in the Southeast and 1 from the Midwest region. Obtained results were compared with those of a plasma sample from a PCV2 vaccinated sow and 1 from a PCV2 antibody negative sow. In Spain, 15 pooled liquid porcine plasma samples and 10 SDPP samples were collected at a commercial spray-drying plant total and NA against PCV2 were determined. Results with pooled liquid porcine plasma from commercial spray-drying facilities in the United States indicated that NA titers against PCV2 in these samples (log2 8.33 ± 0.41 and 9.0 ± 0.0) were similar or greater than the plasma from the PCV2-vaccinated sow (log2 6.33 ± 0.41). The analysis of U.S. samples indicated that liquid plasma diluted to 1:256 (10–2.41) was able to neutralize between 100 to 200 PCV2 virus particles or about 4 logs10 median tissue culture infective dose (TCID50) per milliliter. Similarly, samples from the Spanish pooled liquid plasma and the SDPP samples indicated an increased amount of NA activity against PCV2. Specifically, a dilution of 10–2.47 ± 0.33 of plasma was able to inactivate 100 PCV2 virus particles; therefore, the inactivation capacity of commercial liquid plasma was greater than 104 TCID50/mL. The calculated 90% reduction in infected cells because of NA in pooled plasma samples (log2 8.2 ± 0.38) was less (P < 0.05) than in its concentrate form of SDPP (mean, log2 10.2 ± 0.85). In conclusion, PCV2 NA contained in liquid pooled plasma from market pigs was detected at greater concentrations than that from a vaccinated sow and that after spray-drying biological neutralizing activity was conserved, which implies that the inherent NA in liquid plasma may have an important role in the biosafety of commercially produced SDPP.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Dependence of direct detection signals on the WIMP velocity distribution

The signals expected in WIMP direct detection experiments depend on the ultra-local dark matter distribution. Observations probe the local density, circular speed and escape speed, while simulations find velocity distributions that deviate significantly from the standard Maxwellian distribution. We calculate the energy, time and direction dependence of the event rate for a range of velocity distributions motivated by recent observations and simulations, and also investigate the uncertainty in the determination of WIMP parameters. The dominant uncertainties are the systematic error in the local circular speed and whether or not the MW has a high density dark disc. In both cases there are substantial changes in the mean differential event rate and the annual modulation signal, and hence exclusion limits and determinations of the WIMP mass. The uncertainty in the shape of the halo velocity distribution is less important, however it leads to a 5% systematic error in the WIMP mass. The detailed direction dependence of the event rate is sensitive to the velocity distribution. However the numbers of events required to detect anisotropy and confirm the median recoil direction do not change substantially.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, v2 version to appear in JCAP, minor change

A Bayesian view of the current status of dark matter direct searches

Bayesian statistical methods offer a simple and consistent framework for incorporating uncertainties into a multi-parameter inference problem. In this work we apply these methods to a selection of current direct dark matter searches. We consider the simplest scenario of spin-independent elastic WIMP scattering, and infer the WIMP mass and cross-section from the experimental data with the essential systematic uncertainties folded into the analysis. We find that when uncertainties in the scintillation efficiency of Xenon100 have been accounted for, the resulting exclusion limit is not sufficiently constraining to rule out the CoGeNT preferred parameter region, contrary to previous claims. In the same vein, we also investigate the impact of astrophysical uncertainties on the preferred WIMP parameters. We find that within the class of smooth and isotropic WIMP velocity distributions, it is difficult to reconcile the DAMA and the CoGeNT preferred regions by tweaking the astrophysics parameters alone. If we demand compatibility between these experiments, then the inference process naturally concludes that a high value for the sodium quenching factor for DAMA is preferred.Comment: 37 pages, 14 figures and 7 tables. Replacement for matching the version accepted for publicatio

Mycobacterium tuberculosis phagosome

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/75241/1/j.1365-2958.1999.01279.x.pd

Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study

A41 Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study In: Addiction Science & Clinical Practice 2017, 12(Suppl 1): A4

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995-2009: analysis of individual data for 25,676,887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND: Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS: Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION: International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems