Understanding extreme behavior by optimizing tail dependence with application to ground level ozone via data mining and spatial modeling

Includes bibliographical references.2015 Summer.This dissertation presents novel work in statistical methods for extremes. Our underlying modeling procedure identifies the linear combination of covariates that is associated with extreme values of a response variable, and is based on the framework of bivariate regular variation. We propose a data mining strategy that is suitable for an analysis of ground level ozone, and spatially model the primary drivers of extreme ozone over a large study region. In this dissertation, we first review statistical methods for univariate and multivariate extremes. We then discuss tail dependence parameters and their estimators and introduce γ, a tail dependence metric which is better suited for optimization than other existing metrics. We also introduce the idea of tail dependence estimators that utilize a smooth threshold rather than the 'hard' threshold common to extremes. A smooth threshold is necessary to perform optimization, which has not previously been considered in extremes studies. We also show consistency of estimators with smooth thresholds. Subsequently, we outline our procedure for optimizing tail dependence and discuss parameter estimation. We also propose a model selection procedure that is based on cross-validation. Then we give a simulation study where we demonstrate our method's ability to detect complicated conditions which lead to extreme behavior and compare our approach to competing methods. Next, we propose a data mining procedure that can be used to find the set of covariates that produces the linear combination that has the highest degree of tail dependence with a response variable. Our data mining procedure is a model selection exercise where the model space is too large to be searched exhaustively. We use an automated model search procedure based on simulated annealing. We also give an analysis of ground level ozone, applying our data mining procedure to data from Atlanta, Georgia and Charlotte, North Carolina. We discuss how our method can be modified to deal with non-continuous covariates such as precipitation. Lastly, we seek to model how a set of primary drivers varies spatially over a study region. We utilize data from 160 EPA stations in 13 US states plus the District of Columbia. We model the parameters in our extreme value procedure spatially using a hierarchical modeling technique. For inference, we utilize a two-step procedure

Compensatory density feedback of Oncomelania hupensis populations in two different environmental settings in China

BACKGROUND: The most recent strategy for schistosomiasis control in the People's Republic of China aims to reduce the likelihood of environmental contamination of schistosome eggs. Despite considerable progress, it is believed that achievements would be further consolidated with additional intermediate host snail control measures. We provide an empirical framework for discerning the relative contribution of intrinsic effects (density feedback) from other extrinsic drivers of snail population dynamics. METHODS: We set up experiments in two study locations to collect reproduction data of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum. We applied a set of four population dynamic models that have been widely used to study phenomenological time-series data to examine the properties of demographic density feedback patterns from abundance data. We also contrasted the obtained results with the component feedback of density on survival rate to determine whether adult survival was the principal driver of the demographic feedback observed. RESULTS: Demographic density feedback models (Ricker- and Gompertz-logistic) accounted for <99% of Akaike's information criterion model weight, with the Gompertz ranking highest in all O. hupensis population groups. We found some evidence for stronger compensatory feedback in the O. hupensis population from Sichuan compared to a Jiangsu population. Survival rates revealed strong component feedback, but the log-linear relationships (i.e. Gompertz) had less support in the demographic feedback analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that integrated schistosomiasis control measures must continue to reduce parasite abundance further because intermediate host snail populations tend to grow exponentially at low densities, especially O. hupensis populations in mountainous regions. We conclude that density feedback in adult survival is the principal component contribution to the demographic phenomenon observed in the population fitness (r)-abundance relationship

The Brookhaven Accelerator Test Facility

The Accelerator Test Facility (ATF), presently under construction at Brookhaven National laboratory, is described. It consists of a 50-MeV electron beam synchronizable to a high-peak power CO{sub 2} laser. The interaction of electrons with the laser field will be probed, with some emphasis on exploring laser-based acceleration techniques. 5 refs., 2 figs

Evaluation of the bacterial diversity of Pressure ulcers using bTEFAP pyrosequencing

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Decubitus ulcers, also known as bedsores or pressure ulcers, affect millions of hospitalized patients each year. The microflora of chronic wounds such as ulcers most commonly exist in the biofilm phenotype and have been known to significantly impair normal healing trajectories.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Bacterial tag-encoded FLX amplicon pyrosequencing (bTEFAP), a universal bacterial identification method, was used to identify bacterial populations in 49 decubitus ulcers. Diversity estimators were utilized and wound community compositions analyzed in relation to metadata such as Age, race, gender, and comorbidities.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Decubitus ulcers are shown to be polymicrobial in nature with no single bacterium exclusively colonizing the wounds. The microbial community among such ulcers is highly variable. While there are between 3 and 10 primary populations in each wound there can be hundreds of different species present many of which are in trace amounts. There is no clearly significant differences in the microbial ecology of decubitus ulcer in relation to metadata except when considering diabetes. The microbial populations and composition in the decubitus ulcers of diabetics may be significantly different from the communities in non-diabetics.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Based upon the continued elucidation of chronic wound bioburdens as polymicrobial infections, it is recommended that, in addition to traditional biofilm-based wound care strategies, an antimicrobial/antibiofilm treatment program can be tailored to each patient's respective wound microflora.</p

Searching for continuous Gravitational Waves in the second data release of the International Pulsar Timing Array

The International Pulsar Timing Array 2nd data release is the combination of datasets from worldwide collaborations. In this study, we search for continuous waves: gravitational wave signals produced by individual supermassive black hole binaries in the local universe. We consider binaries on circular orbits and neglect the evolution of orbital frequency over the observational span. We find no evidence for such signals and set sky averaged 95% upper limits on their amplitude h 95 . The most sensitive frequency is 10nHz with h 95 = 9.1 10-15 . We achieved the best upper limit to date at low and high frequencies of the PTA band thanks to improved effective cadence of observations. In our analysis, we have taken into account the recently discovered common red noise process, which has an impact at low frequencies. We also find that the peculiar noise features present in some pulsars data must be taken into account to reduce the false alarm. We show that using custom noise models is essential in searching for continuous gravitational wave signals and setting the upper limit

Comparing Recent Pulsar Timing Array Results on the Nanohertz Stochastic Gravitational-wave Background

The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational-wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTAs that constitute the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We show that despite making different modeling choices, there is no significant difference in the GWB parameters that are measured by the different PTAs, agreeing within 1σ. The pulsar noise parameters are also consistent between different PTAs for the majority of the pulsars included in these analyses. We bridge the differences in modeling choices by adopting a standardized noise model for all pulsars and PTAs, finding that under this model there is a reduction in the tension in the pulsar noise parameters. As part of this reanalysis, we "extended" each PTA's data set by adding extra pulsars that were not timed by that PTA. Under these extensions, we find better constraints on the GWB amplitude and a higher signal-to-noise ratio for the Hellings–Downs correlations. These extensions serve as a prelude to the benefits offered by a full combination of data across all pulsars in the IPTA, i.e., the IPTA's Data Release 3, which will involve not just adding in additional pulsars but also including data from all three PTAs where any given pulsar is timed by more than a single PTA

Comparing recent PTA results on the nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background

The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTAs that constitute the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We show that despite making different modeling choices, there is no significant difference in the GWB parameters that are measured by the different PTAs, agreeing within $1\sigma$. The pulsar noise parameters are also consistent between different PTAs for the majority of the pulsars included in these analyses. We bridge the differences in modeling choices by adopting a standardized noise model for all pulsars and PTAs, finding that under this model there is a reduction in the tension in the pulsar noise parameters. As part of this reanalysis, we "extended" each PTA's data set by adding extra pulsars that were not timed by that PTA. Under these extensions, we find better constraints on the GWB amplitude and a higher signal-to-noise ratio for the Hellings and Downs correlations. These extensions serve as a prelude to the benefits offered by a full combination of data across all pulsars in the IPTA, i.e., the IPTA's Data Release 3, which will involve not just adding in additional pulsars, but also including data from all three PTAs where any given pulsar is timed by more than as single PTA.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, submitted to Ap