Smooth tail index estimation

Both parametric distribution functions appearing in extreme value theory - the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution - have log-concave densities if the extreme value index gamma is in [-1,0]. Replacing the order statistics in tail index estimators by their corresponding quantiles from the distribution function that is based on the estimated log-concave density leads to novel smooth quantile and tail index estimators. These new estimators aim at estimating the tail index especially in small samples. Acting as a smoother of the empirical distribution function, the log-concave distribution function estimator reduces estimation variability to a much greater extent than it introduces bias. As a consequence, Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the smoothed version of the estimators are well superior to their non-smoothed counterparts, in terms of mean squared error.Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures. Slightly changed Pickand's estimator, added some more introduction and discussio

Quality of analgesic treatment in patients with advanced prostate cancer: do we do a better job now? The Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research (SAKK) experience

Goals of work: The aim of this study was to evaluate pain intensity and the application of the WHO guidelines for cancer pain treatment in patients with prostate cancer treated at Swiss cancer centers. Materials and methods: We analyzed a series of five multicenter phase II clinical trials which examined the palliative effect of different chemotherapies in patients with advanced hormone-refractory prostate carcinoma. Of 170 patients, 1,018 visits were evaluable for our purpose, including ratings of pain intensity by patients and prescribed analgesics. Main results: No or mild pain was indicated by patients in 36 to 55% of the visits, more than mild pain in 30 to 46%. In 21% of the visits, the WHO pain treatment criteria (treatment according to one of the three steps; oral, rectal or transdermal application of the main dose; administration on a regular schedule) were fulfilled, and the Cleeland index was positive according to all recommendations. In 6% of the visits, neither the WHO criteria were fulfilled nor was the Cleeland index positive. This indicates insufficient pain treatment not following the WHO guidelines and that the prescribed analgesics were not sufficiently potent for the rated pain intensity. Conclusions: In this selective Swiss sample, the standard of analgesic treatment is high. However, there is still scope for improvement. This cannot solely be solved by improving the knowledge of the physicians. Programs to change the patients' attitude towards cancer pain, training to improve the physicians' communication skills, and institutional changes may be promising strategie

Phase III Clinical Trials in First-Line Follicular Lymphoma: A Review of Their Design and Interpretation

Follicular lymphoma (FL) is one of the most common subtypes of non-Hodgkin lymphoma worldwide. Improved survival outcomes with rituximab-based therapy in clinical trials led to the establishment of rituximab-based immunochemotherapy as standard of care for first-line (1L) treatment of FL. In the GALLIUM trial, obinutuzumab-based immunochemotherapy demonstrated improved progression-free survival (PFS), prolonged time-to-next antilymphoma treatment (TTNT) and comparable overall survival (OS) compared with rituximab-based immunochemotherapy as 1L treatment for FL. Using GALLIUM as an example, this article aims to explain how improved outcomes in 1L treatment of FL have changed the landscape for the design and interpretation of future trials. As approved therapies for 1L FL already achieve good responses, it is becoming more difficult to design trials that demonstrate further treatment benefits with the currently accepted primary endpoints. New endpoints are needed to reflect the long remission times, low relapse rates, and impact of subsequent therapies in FL. PFS is used as a primary efficacy endpoint in registrational clinical trials for indolent malignancies like FL, where improvement in OS is not always observed due to the large number of patients and long study duration required to demonstrate a clear survival benefit. However, there are limitations to using PFS as the primary endpoint. Other potential endpoints, including TTNT, progression of disease within 2 years, response rate, and minimal residual disease status are explored

4-phenylbutyrate restores localization and membrane repair to human dysferlin mutations

Dysferlinopathies are muscular dystrophies caused by recessive loss-of-function mutations in dysferlin (DYSF), a membrane protein involved in skeletal muscle membrane repair. We describe a cell-based assay in which human DYSF proteins bearing missense mutations are quantitatively assayed for membrane localization by flow cytometry and identified 64 localization-defective DYSF mutations. Using this platform, we show that the clinically approved drug 4-phenylbutryric acid (4-PBA) partially restores membrane localization to 25 mutations, as well as membrane repair to cultured myotubes expressing 2 different mutations. Two-day oral administration of 4-PBA to mice homozygous for one of these mutations restored myofiber membrane repair. 4-PBA may hold therapeutic potential for treating a subset of humans with muscular dystrophy due to dysferlin deficiency

Accommodating individual travel history and unsampled diversity in Bayesian phylogeographic inference of SARS-CoV-2

Spatiotemporal bias in genome sampling can severely confound discrete trait phylogeographic inference. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the availability of unprecedented numbers of SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Here, we present an approach to integrate individual travel history data in Bayesian phylogeographic inference and apply it to the early spread of SARS-CoV-2. We demonstrate that including travel history data yields i) more realistic hypotheses of virus spread and ii) higher posterior predictive accuracy compared to including only sampling location. We further explore methods to ameliorate the impact of sampling bias by augmenting the phylogeographic analysis with lineages from undersampled locations. Our reconstructions reinforce specific transmission hypotheses suggested by the inclusion of travel history data, but also suggest alternative routes of virus migration that are plausible within the epidemiological context but are not apparent with current sampling efforts.status: publishe

Intensive Teenage Activity Is Associated With Greater Muscle Hyperintensity on T1W Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Adults With Dysferlinopathy

Practice of sports during childhood or adolescence correlates with an earlier onset and more rapidly progressing phenotype in dysferlinopathies. To determine if this correlation relates to greater muscle pathology that persists into adulthood, we investigated the effect of exercise on the degree of muscle fatty replacement measured using muscle MRI. We reviewed pelvic, thigh and leg T1W MRI scans from 160 patients with genetically confirmed dysferlinopathy from the Jain Foundation International clinical outcomes study in dysferlinopathy. Two independent assessors used the Lamminen-Mercuri visual scale to score degree of fat replacement in each muscle. Exercise intensity for each individual was defined as no activity, minimal, moderate, or intensive activity by using metabolic equivalents and patient reported frequency of sports undertaken between the ages of 10 and 18. We used ANCOVA and linear modeling to compare the mean Lamminen-Mercuri score for the pelvis, thigh, and leg between exercise groups, controlling for age at assessment and symptom duration. Intensive exercisers showed greater fatty replacement in the muscles of the pelvis than moderate exercisers, but no significant differences of the thigh or leg. Within the pelvis, Psoas was the muscle most strongly associated with this exercise effect. In patients with a short symptom duration of <15 years there was a trend toward greater fatty replacement in the muscles of the thigh. These findings define key muscles involved in the exercise-phenotype effect that has previously been observed only clinically in dysferlinopathy and support recommendations that pre-symptomatic patients should avoid very intensive exercise