TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE: 1975 - 2004

The aim of this paper is to determine the potential profitability of technical analysis applied on the foreign exchange market. Eight simple rules of trading are tested in five markets. Only long positions are tracked and reported. When neither commissions nor indexation are included in the analysis, some investment strategies outperform the index. There is little evidence that these excess returns are compensation for bearing excessive risk. However, the most of these strategies require too many transactions and produces only marginal returns. In that sense, when commissions and indexation are introduced, it is concluded that only an investor with the ability to get very low or null commissions and taxes would benefit.Technical, analysis, forex, exchange, rates, efficiency, trading

The Work of Art in the Age of Digital Fragility

Impermanence and fragility have become the defining conditions of the digital age. Technologies that were ubiquitous barely a decade ago, like floppy disks, now look like archaeological relics. It takes only a few years, if not months, before software environments are replaced by newer versions, often with limited backward compatibility. At the same time, digital technologies rely on hardware that has short life expectancy. The radical obsolescence of this new digital register raises a number of important questions. How are we going to prevent the fragile memories of contemporary digital cultures from receding into oblivion? This essay answers this question by looking at one of the institutions in which the problems associated with digital fragility are most especially felt, the Museum of Modern Art (MoMA), and by exploring the ontological displacements that digital objects are operating at the heart of the museum

Polymorphic phase boundary in piezoelectric oxides

The design of phase boundaries has now become a consolidated strategy to improve the functional properties of piezoelectric oxides because of the unique properties that may be obtained in their vicinity. In particular, polymorphic phase boundaries (PPBs) have attracted significant interest in recent years because they represent a significant breakthrough in terms of enhanced piezoelectric activity of lead-free piezoelectric oxides. PPBs are temperature-driven phase transitions where both intrinsic and extrinsic contributions maximize, thereby enhancing the macroscopic properties of piezoelectric materials. This tutorial discusses potassium–sodium–niobate-based systems as model materials to reveal some of the most relevant advances in the design of PPBs through compositional modifications. We focus on how PPBs can be modulated by engineered doping and also discuss the direct relation between PPBs and the enhancement of piezoelectric activity. Finally, we briefly describe the main experimental techniques for detecting PPBs.Postprint (author's final draft

Closed time path approach to the Casimir energy in real media

The closed time path formalism is applied, in the framework of open quantum systems, to study the time evolution of the expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor of a scalar field in the presence of real materials. We analyze quantum fluctuations in a fully non-equilibrium scenario, when the scalar field is interacting with the polarization degrees of freedom of matter, described as quantum Brownian particles. A generalized analysis was done for two types of couplings between the field and the material. On the one hand, we considered a bilinear coupling, and on the other hand, a (more realistic) current-type coupling as in the case of the electromagnetic field interacting with matter. We considered the high temperature limit for the field, keeping arbitrary temperatures for each part of the volume elements of the material. We obtained a closed form for the Hadamard propagator, which let us study the dynamical evolution of the expectations values of the energy-momentum tensor components from the initial time. We showed that two contributions always take place in the transient evolution: one of these is associated to the material and the other one is only associated to the field. Transient features were studied and the long-time limit was derived in several cases. We proved that in the steady situation of a field in n + 1 dimensions, the material always contribute unless is non-dissipative. Conversely, the proper field contribution vanishes unless the material is non-dissipative or, moreover, at least for the 1 + 1 case, if there are regions without material. We conclude that any steady quantization scheme in 1 + 1 dimensions must consider both contributions and we argue why these results are physically expected from a dynamical point of view, and also could be valid for higher dimensions based on the expected continuity between the non-dissipative and real material cases.Comment: 28 pages, no figures. Version to appear in Phys. Rev.

"Sub Tiberio quies"? Judaea’s Political Situation under the Prefects (6-41 c.e.), between Reality and Ideology

Existen valoraciones llamativamente discrepantes sobre la situación política de Judea bajo la égida de los prefectos romanos (6-41 e.c.). Según una opinión, este habría sido un período de persistente agitación revolucionaria; según otra –más extendida–, habría sido tranquilo, de acuerdo a la aseveración de Tácito sub Tiberio quies. El presente artículo examina de nuevo críticamente las principales fuentes disponibles –en particular, la obra de Flavio Josefo, los evangelios canónicos y Tácito– con el objeto de ofrecer una reconstrucción histórica más fiable. El examen arroja resultados que ponen en cuestión nociones extendidas e insuficientemente matizadas acerca del período referido. A su vez, esto permite reflexionar sobre los factores extra-epistémicos que pueden contribuir a explicar la génesis de tales nociones.Deeply conflicting views on the political situation of Judaea under the Roman prefects (6-41 c.e.) have been offered. According to some scholars, this was a period of persistent political unrest and agitation, whilst according to a widespread view it was a quiescent period of political calm (reflected in Tacitus’ phrase sub Tiberio quies). The present article critically examines again the main available sources –particularly Josephus, the canonical Gospels and Tacitus– in order to offer a more reliable historical reconstruction. The conclusions drawn by this survey calls into question some widespread and insufficiently nuanced views on the period. This, in turn, allows a reflection on the non-epistemic factors which might contribute to explain the origin of such views

¿Estrategias de inmunización para un profeta equivocado? La fragilidad argumentativa de la imagen del «Jesús no escatológico»

This article identifies and examines the arguments put forward in the last decades by the proponents of a «non eschatological / non apocalyptic Jesus», in order to assess their explanatory value. It concludes that not one of them withstands critical examination because they are all built on arbitrary grounds and are refuted by extant literary evidence and/or by sound reasoning. Furthermore, the fact that this kind of untenable arguments reappears time and time again in the history of research powerfully suggests that they are the result of an immunisation strategy, contrived by scholars who are embarrassed by the implications of an apocalyptic Jesus.El artículo identifica y examina los argumentos propuestos en las últimas décadas por los defensores de la idea de un «Jesús no escatológico / no apocalíptico», con el objeto de sopesar su valor explicativo. Se concluye que ninguno de ellos resiste el examen crítico, en la medida en que todos están construidos sobre bases endebles. Además, el hecho de que este tipo de argumentos reaparezca una y otra vez en la historia de la investigación sugiere que corresponden a estrategias de inmunización, excogitadas por estudiosos que se sienten incómodos con las implicaciones de un Jesús apocalíptico

EFICIENCIA DE MERCADO, ADMINISTRACION DE CARTERAS DE FONDOS Y BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE

El presente documento de trabajo, muestra un analisis y la evolucion historica reportada de la eficiencia de mercado, la administracion de carteras de fondos y sobre behavioural finance, principalmente en el mercado de USA, por lejos el mas importante del mundo. Tambien, se muestra investigacion en España. Primero, se discute brevemente la teoria al respecto, para luego concentrarse en la evidencia empirica reportada. Nota: se indica mas informacion bibliografica que la reportada.estrategias de inversion, eficiencia de mercado, administracion de carteras, fondos, behavioural finance, España, USA, acciones.

DURACION EFECTIVA DE BONOS PREPAGABLES. Una nota técnica

Este documento de trabajo analiza el Modelo de Valoración de Opciones basado en la Estructura de Tasas de Interés de Salomon Brothers. Con ello se calcula la duración efectiva de bonos prepagables.España, duración, bonos, prepago, opciones, Salomon Brothers

CORTE TRANSVERSAL DE LOS RETORNOS ESPERADOS EN EL MERCADO ACCIONARIO CHILENO

La presente investigación intenta replicar el trabajo de Fama y French (1992) para el mercado chileno, dentro de cierto marco de limitaciones generales. Específicamente, el objetivo de la investigación es evaluar el rol conjunto del beta de mercado, el tamaño, la razón utilidad a precio, el leverage y la razón bolsa a libro en la explicación de corte transversal de los retornos promedios de las acciones en el mercado bursátil chileno. El estudio consta de tres partes: La primera presenta la evolución del problema revisando los principales trabajos sobre el tema, en particular el de Fama y French (1992). La segunda presenta la metodología a emplear, la cual es la misma que la utilizada por Fama y French (1992), salvo que aquí se utiliza además de la información anual, información trimestral. Finalmente, en la tercera parte, se presentan los resultados del estudio. Estos permiten concluir que existe diferencia entre los resultados de las regresiones que usan información trimestral y los que usan información anual. En particular, respecto a la combinación de variables explicativas más significativas, se puede apreciar que en el corto plazo la variable más importante y que absorbe el poder explicativo de las restantes es la razón utilidad a precio. En un plazo mas largo, la combinación más adecuada es más difícil de establecer, pero al parecer la razón libro a bolsa y el beta de mercado son las más importantes.Chile, bolsa, acciones, corte transversal, retorno, riesgo

CASO ZURICH Y BSCH EN BOLIVIA

El caso analiza la hipotética compra por parte del Grupo español Santander Central Hispano de la AFP Futuro de Bolivia a su actual dueño Zurich Financial Services. Se pretende que los alumnos asuman la figura de un consultor financiero que debe dar respuestas concretas a cuatro cuestiones: la evolución futura del negocio asociado al sistema de pensiones en Bolivia, la posición competitiva de la AFP Futuro de Bolivia en tal negocio, la valoración de esta empresa y, por ultimo, los lineamientos de la presentación de una oferta formal a Zurich Financial Services.Bolivia, finanzas, valuación, rol del consultor financiero, pensiones, AFP.