Normal Utilization as the Adjusting Variable in Neo-Kaleckian Growth Models: A Critique

As well-known, the canonical Neo-Kaleckian growth model fails to reconcile actual and normal rates of utilization in equilibrium. Some recent contributions revive an old proposal for solving this problem – making the normal rate of utilization an endogenous variable that converges to the actual utilization rate – justifying it with new, micro-founded premises. We argue that these new justifications for the convergence of normal to actual utilization do not stand closer scrutiny. First, the proposed microeconomic model relies on various restrictive assumptions, some of which are mutually inconsistent. Second, the derivation of the macroeconomic adjustment mechanism from the microeconomic analysis involves a logical leap, that can be justified only by a very arbitrary assumption with little economic justification. Finally, we discuss the way in which this mechanism has been incorporated into the Neo-Kaleckian growth model by proposers of this approach. We show that, even if one puts aside, for the sake of argument, the first two points, the existence of autonomous components of demand is sufficient to invalidate the resulting macroeconomic model

Understanding disease control: influence of epidemiological and economic factors

We present a local spread model of disease transmission on a regular network and compare different control options ranging from treating the whole population to local control in a well-defined neighborhood of an infectious individual. Comparison is based on a total cost of epidemic, including cost of palliative treatment of ill individuals and preventive cost aimed at vaccination or culling of susceptible individuals. Disease is characterized by pre- symptomatic phase which makes detection and control difficult. Three general strategies emerge, global preventive treatment, local treatment within a neighborhood of certain size and only palliative treatment with no prevention. The choice between the strategies depends on relative costs of palliative and preventive treatment. The details of the local strategy and in particular the size of the optimal treatment neighborhood weakly depends on disease infectivity but strongly depends on other epidemiological factors. The required extend of prevention is proportional to the size of the infection neighborhood, but this relationship depends on time till detection and time till treatment in a non-nonlinear (power) law. In addition, we show that the optimal size of control neighborhood is highly sensitive to the relative cost, particularly for inefficient detection and control application. These results have important consequences for design of prevention strategies aiming at emerging diseases for which parameters are not known in advance

Balance-of-payments-constrained Cyclical Growth with Distributive Class Conflicts and Productivity Dynamics

This study builds a dynamic balance-of-payments-constrained (BOPC) model that incorporates the endogenous determination of the economic growth rate, conflictive wage/price distribution, and employment rate. Following the Kaleckian--Marxian literature, wages and commodity prices are determined by the reserve army effect and employment is determined by the reserve army creation effect. The relative strength of these two effects generates different outcomes for the transitional dynamics and comparative statics analysis. In particular, the model shows stability, instability, and a cyclical nature, the latter of concurs with the evidence reported by previous empirical studies

Avaliação sistêmica do setor industrial brasileiro: 1995-2009

Resumo O presente artigo busca avaliar o setor industrial sob uma ótica distinta da que tem sido utilizada quando se trata de industrialização/desindustrialização. O objetivo é analisar o caráter sistêmico do setor industrial a partir do método de insumo-produto, por meio de indicadores de intensidade direta e intensidade direta mais indireta da indústria. Por esta medida, é possível deixar mais clara a contribuição do artigo, ou seja, fornecer uma medida de integração produtiva do setor industrial com os demais setores, de modo a verificar se a indústria tem ganhado importância relativa como setor articulador das atividades produtivas

The impact on welfare and public finances of job loss in industrial Britain

It is important to take a long view of many economic problems. This paper explains how the large-scale loss of industrial jobs in parts of Britain during the 1980s and 1990s still inflates the contemporary budget deficit in the UK. Drawing on the findings of several empirical studies by the authors, it shows that although there has been progress in regeneration the consequences of job loss in Britain’s older industrial areas have been near-permanently higher levels of worklessness, especially on incapacity benefits, low pay, and a major claim on present-day public finances to pay for both in-work and out-of-work benefits. Furthermore, as the UK government implements reductions in welfare spending the poorest places are being hit hardest. In effect, communities in older industrial Britain now face punishment in the form of welfare cuts for the destruction previously wrought to their industrial base

Primordialists and Constructionists: a typology of theories of religion

This article adopts categories from nationalism theory to classify theories of religion. Primordialist explanations are grounded in evolutionary psychology and emphasize the innate human demand for religion. Primordialists predict that religion does not decline in the modern era but will endure in perpetuity. Constructionist theories argue that religious demand is a human construct. Modernity initially energizes religion, but subsequently undermines it. Unpacking these ideal types is necessary in order to describe actual theorists of religion. Three distinctions within primordialism and constructionism are relevant. Namely those distinguishing: a) materialist from symbolist forms of constructionism; b) theories of origins from those pertaining to the reproduction of religion; and c) within reproduction, between theories of religious persistence and secularization. This typology helps to make sense of theories of religion by classifying them on the basis of their causal mechanisms, chronology and effects. In so doing, it opens up new sightlines for theory and research

The impact on welfare and public finances of job loss in industrial Britain

It is important to take a long view of many economic problems. This paper explains how the large-scale loss of industrial jobs in parts of Britain during the 1980s and 1990s still inflates the contemporary budget deficit in the UK. Drawing on the findings of several empirical studies by the authors, it shows that although there has been progress in regeneration the consequences of job loss in Britain’s older industrial areas have been near-permanently higher levels of worklessness, especially on incapacity benefits, low pay, and a major claim on present-day public finances to pay for both in-work and out-of-work benefits. Furthermore, as the UK government implements reductions in welfare spending the poorest places are being hit hardest. In effect, communities in older industrial Britain now face punishment in the form of welfare cuts for the destruction previously wrought to their industrial base

Balancing Detection and Eradication for Control of Epidemics: Sudden Oak Death in Mixed-Species Stands

Culling of infected individuals is a widely used measure for the control of several plant and animal pathogens but culling first requires detection of often cryptically-infected hosts. In this paper, we address the problem of how to allocate resources between detection and culling when the budget for disease management is limited. The results are generic but we motivate the problem for the control of a botanical epidemic in a natural ecosystem: sudden oak death in mixed evergreen forests in coastal California, in which species composition is generally dominated by a spreader species (bay laurel) and a second host species (coast live oak) that is an epidemiological dead-end in that it does not transmit infection but which is frequently a target for preservation. Using a combination of an epidemiological model for two host species with a common pathogen together with optimal control theory we address the problem of how to balance the allocation of resources for detection and epidemic control in order to preserve both host species in the ecosystem. Contrary to simple expectations our results show that an intermediate level of detection is optimal. Low levels of detection, characteristic of low effort expended on searching and detection of diseased trees, and high detection levels, exemplified by the deployment of large amounts of resources to identify diseased trees, fail to bring the epidemic under control. Importantly, we show that a slight change in the balance between the resources allocated to detection and those allocated to control may lead to drastic inefficiencies in control strategies. The results hold when quarantine is introduced to reduce the ingress of infected material into the region of interest