Developing an impact library for forecasting surface water flood risk

During surface water flooding events, emergency responders require detailed information on the risks posed in order to provide an appropriate and effective response. Few early warning systems quantitatively estimate the risk and impacts of surface water flooding. Improvements in computational processing capability, availability of new datasets and developments in forecasting models means that the forecasting information currently being supplied by the Flood Forecasting Centre can be improved upon through the application of a timely, impact‐based model. This article presents a novel approach to collating receptor datasets into a pre‐calculated Impact Library for use in a Hazard Impact Model (HIM) that will operate using real‐time probabilistic rainfall and surface runoff forecasts for England and Wales. The HIM provides an approach suitable for modelling flood impacts. Initial results are presented for a case study covering the 2012 floods in the North East of England. Information generated by the HIM provides additional benefits beyond current methods. Features include operator access to 1 km 15 min spatial–temporal data, analysis of individual impact criteria and modular refinement of the Impact Library to suit different situations. The HIM has been developed in partnership via the Natural Hazards Partnership

The (im)materiality of literacy : the significance of subjectivity to new literacies research.

This article deconstructs the online and offline experience to show its complexities and idiosyncratic nature. It proposes a theoretical framework designed to conceptualise aspects of meaning-making across on- and offline contexts. In arguing for the ‘(im)materiality’ of literacy, it makes four propositions which highlight the complex and diverse relationships between the immaterial and material associated with meaning-making. Complementing existing sociocultural perspectives on literacy, the article draws attention to the significance of relationships between space, mediation, materiality and embodiment to literacy practices. This in turn emphasises the importance of the subjective in understanding how different locations, experiences and so forth inflect literacy practice. The article concludes by drawing on the Deleuzian concept of the ‘baroque’ to suggest that this focus on articulations between the material and immaterial helps us to see literacy as multiply and flexibly situated

A restatement of the natural science evidence concerning catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK

Flooding is a very costly natural hazard in the UK and is expected to increase further under future climate change scenarios. Flood defences are commonly deployed to protect communities and property from flooding, but in recent years flood management policy has looked towards solutions that seek to mitigate flood risk at flood-prone sites through targeted interventions throughout the catchment, sometimes using techniques which involve working with natural processes. This paper describes a project to provide a succinct summary of the natural science evidence base concerning the effectiveness of catchment-based ‘natural’ flood management in the UK. The evidence summary is designed to be read by an informed but not technically specialist audience. Each evidence statement is placed into one of four categories describing the nature of the underlying information. The evidence summary forms the appendix to this paper and an annotated bibliography is provided in the electronic supplementary material

Distinct degassing pulses during magma invasion in the stratified Karoo Basin – New insights from hydrothermal fluid flow modelling

Magma emplacement in organic‐rich sedimentary basins is a main driver of past environmental crises. Using a 2D numerical model, we investigate the process of thermal cracking in contact aureoles of cooling sills and subsequent transport and emission of thermogenic methane by hydrothermal fluids. Our model includes a Mohr‐Coulomb failure criterion to initiate hydrofracturing and a dynamic porosity/permeability. We investigate the Karoo Basin, taking into account host‐rock material properties from borehole data, realistic total organic carbon content, and different sill geometries. Consistent with geological observations, we find that thermal plumes quickly rise at the edges of saucer‐shaped sills, guided along vertically fractured high permeability pathways. Contrastingly, less focused and slower plumes rise from the edges and the central part of flat‐lying sills. Using a novel upscaling method based on sill‐to‐sediment ratio we find that degassing of the Karoo Basin occurred in two distinct phases during magma invasion. Rapid degassing triggered by sills emplaced within the top 1.5 km emitted ~1.6·103 Gt of thermogenic methane, while thermal plumes originating from deeper sills, carrying a 12‐times greater mass of methane, may not reach the surface. We suggest that these large quantities of methane could be re‐mobilized by the heat provided by neighboring sills. We conclude that the Karoo LIP may have emitted as much as ~22.3·103 Gt of thermogenic methane in the half million years of magmatic activity, with emissions up to 3 Gt/year. This quantity of methane and the emission rates can explain the negative δ13C excursion of the Toarcian environmental crisis. Key Points Sill geometry and emplacement depth as well as intruded host rock type are the main factors controlling methane mobilization and degassing Dehydration‐related porosity increase and pore‐pressure‐induced hydrofracturing are important mechanisms for a quick transport of methane from sill to the surface The Karoo Basin may have degassed ~22.3·103 Gt of thermogenic methane in the half million years of magmatic activit

Transitions in modes of coastal adaptation: addressing blight, engagement and sustainability

Coastal defences have long provided protection from erosion and flooding to cities, towns and villages. In many parts of the world, continued defence is being questioned due to both environmental, sustainability and economic considerations. This is exemplified in England and Wales, where strategic Shoreline Management Plans envisage realignment of many protected coasts, often with low population densities, over the coming decades. The policy transition from protection to realignment is often resisted by affected communities and can have high political costs. Whilst some preparations for such transitions have been made, the communities affected are often not fully aware of the implications of policy change, and this brings the potential for blight. In this paper, we investigate the challenges of implementing transitions in coastal policy within England and Wales. The analysis is based on data obtained from three workshops held in 2019 that were attended by council members, engineers, planners, scientists and other relevant professionals. Five conditions are found to promote contention: (i) policy actors with competing priorities and different decision making time frames (immediate to decadal to a century); (ii) divergence between regulations and ad hoc political decisions (e.g. in relation to the demand for new housing); (iii) limited or non-existent funding to support policy transition; (iv) community expectation that protection is forever; and (v) a disconnection between people and ongoing coastal change. Our research indicates that transitions can be better supported through: (1) integrated multi-scalar preparedness for coastal change; (2) an accessible evidence base and future vision to nurture political confidence in adaptation; and (3) defined, time-bound and accessible diverse funding streams to achieve transitions. Critically, these generic actions need to be embedded within the local political and planning system to facilitate transition to more sustainable coasts and their communities

Parents’ Beliefs about and Associations to their Elementary Children’s Home Technology Usage

This study sought to gather information through a survey of how newcomer parents’ beliefs about technology usage and how they engage with technology as they support their children with twenty-first century literacies. Parent respondents (N = 70) were drawn from two publicly funded schools in the Niagara Region, Ontario, Canada, where the population tends to be immigrant, visible minority, with post-secondary education, but unemployed and low income. Descriptive statistics quantified daily technology activities as being communication-oriented with the majority of parents holding distinct beliefs about the amount and type of their children’s technology usage. Chi-square tests indicated significant associations for demographic characteristics such as the gender, age, education, first language, and ethnicity of the parents as determinants of their beliefs about their children’s technology usage (e.g., social media, mobile phones, television). As well, levels of access and use varied in terms of the number of new technologies and the types of literacy practices that families engage in. Immigrant parents might hold misconceptions about twenty-first century literacies, therefore there should be an attempt to assist them to provide responsive twenty-first century literacy and technology support for their children

Recurrent governance challenges in the implementation and alignment of flood risk management strategies: a review

In Europe increasing flood risks challenge societies to diversify their Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRMSs). Such a diversification implies that actors not only focus on flood defence, but also and simultaneously on flood risk prevention, mitigation, preparation and recovery. There is much literature on the implementation of specific strategies and measures as well as on flood risk governance more generally. What is lacking, though, is a clear overview of the complex set of governance challenges which may result from a diversification and alignment of FRM strategies. This paper aims to address this knowledge gap. It elaborates on potential processes and mechanisms for coordinating the activities and capacities of actors that are involved on different levels and in different sectors of flood risk governance, both concerning the implementation of individual strategies and the coordination of the overall set of strategies. It identifies eight overall coordination mechanisms that have proven to be useful in this respect

Modeling adsorption in metal-organic frameworks with open metal sites : propane/propylene separations

We present a new approach for modeling adsorption in metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) with unsaturated metal centers and apply it to the challenging propane/propylene separation in copper(II) benzene-1,3,5-tricarboxylate (CuBTC). We obtain information about the specific interactions between olefins and the open metal sites of the MOP using quantum mechanical density functional theory. A proper consideration of all the relevant contributions to the adsorption energy enables us to extract the component that is due to specific attractive interactions between the pi-orbitals of the alkene and the coordinatively unsaturated metal. This component is fitted using a combination of a Morse potential and a power law function and is then included into classical grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations of adsorption. Using this modified potential model, together with a standard Lennard-Jones model, we are able to predict the adsorption of not only propane (where no specific interactions are present), but also of propylene (where specific interactions are dominant). Binary adsorption isotherms for this mixture are in reasonable agreement with ideal adsorbed solution theory predictions. We compare our approach with previous attempts to predict adsorption in MOFs with open metal sites and suggest possible future routes for improving our model

The undebated issue of justice: silent discourses in Dutch flood risk management

Flood risk for all types of flooding is projected to increase based on climate change projections and increases in damage potential. These challenges are likely to aggravate issues of justice in flood risk management (henceforth FRM). Based on a discursive-institutionalist perspective, this paper explores justice in Dutch FRM: how do institutions allocate the responsibilities and costs for FRM for different types of flooding? What are the underlying conceptions of justice? What are the future challenges with regard to climate change? The research revealed that a dichotomy is visible in the Dutch approach to FRM: despite an abundance of rules, regulations and resources spent, flood risk or its management, are only marginally discussed in terms of justice. Despite that the current institutional arrangement has material outcomes that treat particular groups of citizens differently, depending on the type of flooding they are prone to, area they live in (unembanked/embanked) or category of user (e.g. household, industry, farmer). The paper argues that the debate on justice will (re)emerge, since the differences in distributional outcomes are likely to become increasingly uneven as a result of increasing flood risk. The Netherlands should be prepared for this debate by generating the relevant facts and figures. An inclusive debate on the distribution of burdens of FRM could contribute to more effective and legitimate FRM

Comparing cost-effectiveness of surface water flood management interventions in a UK catchment

This is the final published version. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Despite significant consequences caused by recent events, surface water flooding has historically been of lower priority relative to fluvial and coastal risks in UK flood management. Legislation and research proposes a variety of innovative interventions to address this; however, widespread application of these remains a challenge due to a number of institutional, economic, and technical barriers. This research applies a framework capable of fast and high-resolution assessment of intervention cost-effectiveness as an opportunity to improve available evidence and encourage uptake of interventions through analysing permutations of type, scale, and distribution in urban catchments. Fast assessment of many scenarios is achieved using a cellular automata flood model and a simplified representation of interventions. Conventional and green strategies are examined across a range of design standard and high-magnitude rainfall events in an urban catchment. Results indicate high-volume rainwater capture interventions demonstrate a significant reduction in estimated annual damage costs, and localised surface water drainage interventions exhibit high cost-effectiveness for damage reduction. Analysis of performance across a wide range of return periods enhances available evidence for option comparison decision support and provides a basis for future resilience assessment of interventions.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC