Air Pollution Mortality in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden

The adverse health consequences of air pollution are of concern currently and there is a fear that these consequences escalate along with economic growth. The effect of economic growth on air pollution deaths is analyzed in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden by applying the Environmental Kuznets Curve approach, according to which economic growth has competing effects on air pollution and related deaths. On the one hand, emissions tend to increase as the scale of economic activity increases, but on the other hand, consumers and firms in richer countries use cleaner goods and adopt cleaner technologies. In Denmark and Finland, the latter effects are stronger, while in Sweden the opposite is true. Therefore, air pollution deaths will decrease in Denmark and Finland but increase in Sweden. Since country's own emissions do not determine air pollution completely, the paper briefly analyzes emissions from the Baltic countries and Russia

Recovery of the Austrian economy following the COVID-19 crisis can take up to three years, IIASA Policy Brief #26

Collaboration between researchers from IIASA, WU, WIFO, and the IHS provides scenarios of the medium-run economic effects of the lockdown in Austria using the IIASA macroeconomic simulation model. The analysis suggests that the return to the business-as-usual trend may take up to three years after a steep initial economic downturn due to the lockdown, and a gradual recovery thereafter

Recovery of the Austrian economy following the COVID-19 crisis can take up to three years

The scenario analysis carried out using the IIASA simulation model for the Austrian economy concludes that it may take up to three years until the economy recovers from the shock caused by the shutdown measures and returns to the growth path it had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. For 2020, the model simulations predict a 4% fall in GDP for a shutdown until mid-May, which would be as high as 6% if the shutdown were to last until mid-June. In spite of strong recovery dynamics, with increases in the GDP growth rates around two percentage points above benchmark in the years 2021 and 2022, the GDP levels will remain below the pre-crisis trend within the scenario horizon, indicating lasting effects of the COVID-19 crisis in the medium-term

Optimal control for sustainable consumption of natural resources

In this paper we study optimal policies for a central planner interested in maximizing utility in an economy driven by a renewable resource. It is shown that the optimal consumption path is sustainable only when the intrinsic growth rate of the resource is greater than the social discount rate. The model is formulated as an infinite horizon optimal control problem. We deal with the mathematical details of the problem, develop a precise notion for optimality and establish the existence of optimal control at least when the condition for sustainability is met. We apply the appropriate version of the Pontryagin maximum principle and show a numerical simulation of the optimal feedback law. In the end we present the results along with physical interpretations

Characterization and Control of Conservative and Non-conservative Network Dynamics

Diffusion processes are instrumental to describe the movement of a continuous quantity in a network of interacting agents. Here, we present a framework for diffusion in networks and study in particular two classes of agent interactions depending on whether the total network quantity follows a conservation law. Focusing on probabilistic, asymmetric interactions between agents, we define how the dynamics of conservative and non-conservative networks relate to the weighted in-degree and out-degree Laplacians. For uncontrolled networks, we compare the convergence behavior of both types of networks as a function of the eigenvectors of the weighted graph Laplacians. For networks with exogenous controls, we also analyze convergence and provide a method to measure the difference between conservative and non-conservative network dynamics based on the comparison of their respective reachable sets. The presented network control framework enables the comparative study of the dynamic and asymptotic network behavior for conservative and non-conservative networks

IN MEMORY OF ARKADY VIKTOROVICH KRYAZHIMSKIY (1949–2014)

The article is devoted to the description of Academician Arkady Kryazhimskiy's life path. The facts of the scientific biography of Acad. Kryazhimskiy are presented with the emphasis on his outstanding contribution into the theory of dynamic inversion, the theory of differential games, and control theory. His personal talents in different spheres are also marked out

IN MEMORY OF ARKADY VIKTOROVICH KRYAZHIMSKIY (1949–2014)

The article is devoted to the description of Academician Arkady Kryazhimskiy's life path. The facts of the scientific biography of Acad. Kryazhimskiy are presented with the emphasis on his outstanding contribution into the theory of dynamic inversion, the theory of differential games, and control theory. His personal talents in different spheres are also marked out

Towards harmonizing competing models: Russian forests' net primary production case study

This paper deals with the issue of reconciling competing stochastic estimates provided by independent sources. We employ an integration method based on a principle of mutual compatibility of prior estimates. The method does not take into account credibility of the sources of the estimates, including their past performance. The quality of integration is evaluated in terms of change in the probability distribution. We use the method to integrate two types of estimates of the annual Net Primary Production (NPP) of the forest ecosystems in seven bioclimatic zones in Russia. The estimates are generated based on an empirical landscape-ecosystem approach and on an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models; the gaps in thei estimates reach 23%. Elimination of the gaps may help better quantify the input of the terrestrial ecosystems to the global carbon cyce. The main result of this paper is the evidence of applicability of the method for selection a set of candidates for credible integrated estimates of uncertain ecological parameters (like forest NPP) integrating prior estimates