On evaluating the performance of problem structuring methods:an attempt at formulating a conceptual model

In the past decade there has been a discussion on the need for and degree of empirical evidence for the effectiveness of problem structuring methods (PSMs). Some authors propose that PSMs are used in unique situations which are difficult to study, both from a methodological and a practical perspective. In another view experimental validation is necessary and, if not obtained, PSMs remain substantially invalidated and thus ‘suspect’ with regard to their claims of effectiveness. Both views agree on one point: the necessity of being clear about the important factors in the context in which a method is used, the method’s aims and its essential elements through which these aims are achieved. A clear formulation of central variables is the core of a theoretical validation, without which empirical testing of effects is impossible. Since the process of PSMs is sometimes referred to as ‘more art than science’, increased clarity on the PSM process also supports the transfer of methods. In this article we consider goals important to most PSMs, such as consensus and commitment. We then focus on outcomes of group model building, and expectations on how context and group modeling process contributes to outcomes. Next we discuss the similarity of these central variables and relations to two sets of theories in social psychology: the theory of planned behavior and dual process theories of persuasion. On the basis of these theories we construct a preliminary conceptual model on group model building effectiveness and address its practical applicability for research on PSM

Different paths to consensus? The impact of need for closure on model-supported group conflict management

Empirical evidence on how cognitive factors impact the effectiveness of model-supported group decision making is lacking. This study reports on an experiment on the effects of need for closure, defined as a desire for definite knowledge on some issue and the eschewal of ambiguity. The study was conducted with over 40 postgraduate student groups. A quantitative analysis shows that compared to groups low in need for closure, groups high in need for closure experienced less conflict when using Value-Focused Thinking to make a budget allocation decision. Furthermore, low need for closure groups used the model to surface conflict and engaged in open discussions to come to an agreement. By contrast, high need for closure groups suppressed conflict and used the model to put boundaries on the discussion. Interestingly, both groups achieve similar levels of consensus, and high need for closure groups are more satisfied than low need for closure groups. A qualitative analysis of a subset of groups reveals that in high need for closure groups only a few participants control the model building process, and final decisions are not based on the model but on simpler tools. The findings highlight the need to account for the effects of cognitive factors when designing and deploying model-based support for practical interventions

Systems Science for Caribbean Health: the development and piloting of a model for guiding policy on diabetes in the Caribbean.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is highly prevalent in the Caribbean, associated with a high morbidity and mortality and is a recognised threat to economic and social development. Heads of Government in the Caribbean Community came together in 2007 and declared their commitment to reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including diabetes, by calling for a multi-sectoral, systemic response. To facilitate the development of effective policies, policymakers are being engaged in the development and use of a system dynamics (SD) model of diabetes for Caribbean countries. METHODS: Previous work on a diabetes SD model from the United States of America (USA) is being adapted to a local context for three countries in the region using input from stakeholders, a review of existing qualitative and quantitative data, and collection of new qualitative data. Three country models will be developed using one-on-one stakeholder engagement and iterative revision. An inter-country model will also be developed following a model-building workshop. Models will be compared to each other and to the USA model. The inter-country model will be used to simulate policies identified as priorities by stakeholders and to develop targets for prevention and control. The model and model-building process will be evaluated by stakeholders and a manual developed for use in other high-burden developing regions. DISCUSSION: SD has been applied with success for health policy development in high-income country settings. The utility of SD in developing countries as an aid to policy decision-making related to NCDs has not been tested. This study represents the first of its kind.The project is funded by a health initiatives development grant sponsored by the DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC. Reference: MR/N005384/1

Energy Transition Dynamics; Understanding Policy Resistance in the Dutch Energy System

Contains fulltext : 127511pre.pdf (preprint version ) (Open Access)Various countries seek to establish an energy transition, a structural change towards a more sustainable energy system. Countries implement a combination of energy policies aimed at establishing an energy transition, but these policies frequently result in unintended negative consequences. This study provides an attempt to unravel the complexity of the Dutch energy transition. We present a model of the Dutch energy transition, showing its various components and their interrelations. The model is based on eight group model building workshops in which a total of 96 stakeholders in the Dutch energy transition participated. In each workshop, a variety of stakeholders engaged in the collaborative construction of a model that explains the current progress of the energy transition. In this paper, we aggregate these eight models into one overarching model, which we lay out step by step. The model shows how technological, ecological, social, economic, and political aspects of the energy transition influence each other either directly or indirectly. We discuss several policy implications, with a focus on reducing unintended negative consequences.32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Societ

Learning from discrete-event simulation: Exploring the high involvement hypothesis

Discussion of learning from discrete-event simulation often takes the form of a hypothesis stating that involving clients in model building provides much of the learning necessary to aid their decisions. Whilst practitioners of simulation may intuitively agree with this hypothesis they are simultaneously motivated to reduce the model building effort through model reuse. As simulation projects are typically limited by time, model reuse offers an alternative learning route for clients as the time saved can be used to conduct more experimentation. We detail a laboratory experiment to test the high involvement hypothesis empirically, identify mechanisms that explain how involvement in model building or model reuse affect learning and explore the factors that inhibit learning from models. Measurement of learning focuses on the management of resource utilisation in a case study of a hospital emergency department and through the choice of scenarios during experimentation. Participants who reused a model benefitted from the increased experimentation time available when learning about resource utilisation. However, participants who were involved in model building simulated a greater variety of scenarios including more validation type scenarios early on. These results suggest that there may be a learning trade-off between model reuse and model building when simulation projects have a fixed budget of time. Further work evaluating client learning in practice should track the origin and choice of variables used in experimentation; studies should also record the methods modellers find most effective in communicating the impact of resource utilisation on queuing

Project ervaringscijfers aaltjes Limburg : Pecal

Met de Aaltjes BeheersingsStrategie (ABS) als uitgangspunt, die samen met het digitale adviessysteem "digiaal" als richtlijn dient voor het handelen van de telers, wordt besproken wat telers hebben gedaan en welke consequenties dat heeft gehad. Met andere woorden hoe gaan telers om met het advies uit het onderzoek. Waar mogelijk worden per onderdeel aanbevelingen gedaan voor verbeterin