Bayes Linear Calibrated Prediction for Complex Systems

A calibration-based approach is developed for predicting the behavior of a physical system that is modeled by a computer simulator. The approach is based on Bayes linear adjustment using both system observations and evaluations of the simulator at parameterizations that appear to give good matches to those observations. This approach can be applied to complex high-dimensional systems with expensive simulators, where a fully Bayesian approach would be impractical. It is illustrated with an example concerning the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic Ocean

Parametric uncertainty in complex environmental models: a cheap emulation approach for models with high-dimensional output

In order to understand underlying processes governing environmental and physical processes, and predict future outcomes, a complex computer model is frequently required to simulate these dynamics. However there is inevitably uncertainty related to the exact parametric form or the values of such parameters to be used when developing these simulators, with \emph{ranges} of plausible values prevalent in the literature. Systematic errors introduced by failing to account for these uncertainties have the potential to have a large effect on resulting estimates in unknown quantities of interest. Due to the complexity of these types of models, it is often unfeasible to run large numbers of training runs that are usually required for full statistical emulators of the environmental processes. We therefore present a method for accounting for uncertainties in complex environmental simulators without the need for very large numbers of training runs and illustrate the method through an application to the Met Office's atmospheric transport model NAME. We conclude that there are two principle parameters that are linked with variability in NAME outputs, namely the free tropospheric turbulence parameter and particle release height. Our results suggest the former should be significantly larger than is currently implemented as a default in NAME, whilst changes in the latter most likely stem from inconsistencies between the model specified ground height at the observation locations and the true height at this location. Estimated discrepancies from independent data are consistent with the discrepancy between modelled and true ground height

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

Early psychological care of the French victims of the Costa Concordia shipwreck

Most of the French passengers who survived the shipwreck of the cruise ship Costa Concordia were repatriatedfrom Italy to Marseille, one of the stopovers of the cruise. The shipwreck happened during the nightof 13th–14th January 2012 and entailed the forced evacuation of 4195 passengers and crewmembers.Thirty-two persons died and 2 others are still reported missing. The massive and unexpected inflow of402 French citizens in the port of Marseille required the quick setting up of welcome facilities, not only tosolve logistical problems, but also to address psychological and sometimes even medical problems. ThePrehospital Psychological Emergency Service (CUMP) and the Prehospital Emergency Medical Service(SAMU) of Marseille examined 196 persons in total, and were able to avoid a great number of emergencyadmissions deemed necessary because of difficult psychological situations (death, missing or lost persons,acute stress). The objective of this report is to rapidly present the emergency committee as a whole andto describe in more detail the work that the CUMP accomplished during the 36 hours necessary to takecharge of the majority of the French passengers of the Costa Concordia.Most of the French passengers who survived the shipwreck of the cruise ship Costa Concordia were repatriatedfrom Italy to Marseille, one of the stopovers of the cruise. The shipwreck happened during the nightof 13th–14th January 2012 and entailed the forced evacuation of 4195 passengers and crewmembers.Thirty-two persons died and 2 others are still reported missing. The massive and unexpected inflow of402 French citizens in the port of Marseille required the quick setting up of welcome facilities, not only tosolve logistical problems, but also to address psychological and sometimes even medical problems. ThePrehospital Psychological Emergency Service (CUMP) and the Prehospital Emergency Medical Service(SAMU) of Marseille examined 196 persons in total, and were able to avoid a great number of emergencyadmissions deemed necessary because of difficult psychological situations (death, missing or lost persons,acute stress). The objective of this report is to rapidly present the emergency committee as a whole andto describe in more detail the work that the CUMP accomplished during the 36 hours necessary to takecharge of the majority of the French passengers of the Costa Concordia

Search for single production of vector-like T quarks decaying into Ht or Zt in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper describes a search for the single production of an up-type vector-like quark (T) decaying as T → Ht or T → Zt. The search utilises a dataset of pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector during the 2015–2018 data-taking period of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. Data are analysed in final states containing a single lepton with multiple jets and b-jets. The presence of boosted heavy resonances in the event is exploited to discriminate the signal from the Standard Model background. No significant excess above the Standard Model expectation is observed, and 95% CL upper limits are set on the production cross section of T quarks in different decay channels. The results are interpreted in several benchmark scenarios to set limits on the mass and universal coupling strength (κ) of the vector-like quark. For singlet T quarks, κ values above 0.53 are excluded for all masses below 2.3 TeV. At a mass of 1.6 TeV, κ values as low as 0.35 are excluded. For T quarks in the doublet scenario, where the production cross section is much lower, κ values above 0.72 are excluded for all masses below 1.7 TeV, and this exclusion is extended to κ above 0.55 for low masses around 1.0 TeV

Search for excited τ-leptons and leptoquarks in the final state with τ-leptons and jets in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is reported for excited τ-leptons and leptoquarks in events with two hadronically decaying τ-leptons and two or more jets. The search uses proton-proton (pp) collision data at s√ = 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment during the Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider in 2015–2018. The total integrated luminosity is 139 fb−1. The excited τ-lepton is assumed to be produced and to decay via a four-fermion contact interaction into an ordinary τ-lepton and a quark-antiquark pair. The leptoquarks are assumed to be produced in pairs via the strong interaction, and each leptoquark is assumed to couple to a charm or lighter quark and a τ-lepton. No excess over the background prediction is observed. Excited τ-leptons with masses below 2.8 TeV are excluded at 95% CL in scenarios with the contact interaction scale Λ set to 10 TeV. At the extreme limit of model validity where Λ is set equal to the excited τ-lepton mass, excited τ-leptons with masses below 4.6 TeV are excluded. Leptoquarks with masses below 1.3 TeV are excluded at 95% CL if their branching ratio to a charm quark and a τ-lepton equals 1. The analysis does not exploit flavour-tagging in the signal region

The ATLAS trigger system for LHC Run 3 and trigger performance in 2022

The ATLAS trigger system is a crucial component of the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. It is responsible for selecting events in line with the ATLAS physics programme. This paper presents an overview of the changes to the trigger and data acquisition system during the second long shutdown of the LHC, and shows the performance of the trigger system and its components in the proton-proton collisions during the 2022 commissioning period as well as its expected performance in proton-proton and heavy-ion collisions for the remainder of the third LHC data-taking period (2022–2025)

Inclusive-photon production and its dependence on photon isolation in pp collisions at s√ = 13 TeV using 139 fb−1 of ATLAS data

Measurements of differential cross sections are presented for inclusive isolated-photon production in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV provided by the LHC and using 139 fb−1 of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment. The cross sections are measured as functions of the photon transverse energy in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The photons are required to be isolated by means of a fixed-cone method with two different cone radii. The dependence of the inclusive-photon production on the photon isolation is investigated by measuring the fiducial cross sections as functions of the isolation-cone radius and the ratios of the differential cross sections with different radii in different regions of photon pseudorapidity. The results presented in this paper constitute an improvement with respect to those published by ATLAS earlier: the measurements are provided for different isolation radii and with a more granular segmentation in photon pseudorapidity that can be exploited in improving the determination of the proton parton distribution functions. These improvements provide a more in-depth test of the theoretical predictions. Next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from JETPHOX and SHERPA and next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD predictions from NNLOJET are compared to the measurements, using several parameterisations of the proton parton distribution functions. The measured cross sections are well described by the fixed-order QCD predictions within the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in most of the investigated phase-space region

Charged-hadron production in pp, p+Pb, Pb+Pb, and Xe+Xe collisions at sNN−−−√ = 5 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

This paper presents measurements of charged-hadron spectra obtained in pp, p+Pb, and Pb+Pb collisions at s√ or sNN−−−√ = 5.02 TeV, and in Xe+Xe collisions at sNN−−−√ = 5.44 TeV. The data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC have total integrated luminosities of 25 pb−1, 28 nb−1, 0.50 nb−1, and 3 μb−1, respectively. The nuclear modification factors RpPb and RAA are obtained by comparing the spectra in heavy-ion and pp collisions in a wide range of charged-particle transverse momenta and pseudorapidity. The nuclear modification factor RpPb shows a moderate enhancement above unity with a maximum at pT ≈ 3 GeV; the enhancement is stronger in the Pb-going direction. The nuclear modification factors in both Pb+Pb and Xe+Xe collisions feature a significant, centrality-dependent suppression. They show a similar distinct pT-dependence with a local maximum at pT ≈ 2 GeV and a local minimum at pT ≈ 7 GeV. This dependence is more distinguishable in more central collisions. No significant |η|-dependence is found. A comprehensive comparison with several theoretical predictions is also provided. They typically describe RAA better in central collisions and in the pT range from about 10 to 100 GeV

Combination of searches for heavy spin-1 resonances using 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for new heavy spin-1 resonances decaying into diferent pairings of W, Z, or Higgs bosons, as well as directly into leptons or quarks, is presented. The data sample used corresponds to 139 fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV collected during 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Analyses selecting quark pairs (qq, bb, tt¯, and tb) or third-generation leptons (τν and τ τ ) are included in this kind of combination for the frst time. A simplifed model predicting a spin-1 heavy vector-boson triplet is used. Cross-section limits are set at the 95% confdence level and are compared with predictions for the benchmark model. These limits are also expressed in terms of constraints on couplings of the heavy vector-boson triplet to quarks, leptons, and the Higgs boson. The complementarity of the various analyses increases the sensitivity to new physics, and the resulting constraints are stronger than those from any individual analysis considered. The data exclude a heavy vector-boson triplet with mass below 5.8 TeV in a weakly coupled scenario, below 4.4 TeV in a strongly coupled scenario, and up to 1.5 TeV in the case of production via vector-boson fusion