The Search for an Intelligible Principle: Setting Air Quality Standards under the Clean Air Act

Heather L. Ross weighs in on the controversy surrounding the EPA's setting of National Ambient Air Quality Standards. She forcefully argues that balancing costs and benefits is the only intelligible principle that comports with common sense.

Precursor Analysis for Offshore Oil and Gas Drilling: From Prescriptive to Risk-Informed Regulation

The Oil Spill Commission’s chartered mission—to “develop options to guard against … any oil spills associated with offshore drilling in the future” (National Commission 2010)—presents a major challenge: how to reduce the risk of low-frequency oil spill events, and especially high-consequence events like the Deepwater Horizon accident, when historical experience contains few oil spills of material scale and none approaching the significance of the Deepwater Horizon. In this paper, we consider precursor analysis as an answer to this challenge, addressing first its development and use in nuclear reactor regulation and then its applicability to offshore oil and gas drilling. We find that the nature of offshore drilling risks, the operating information obtainable by the regulator, and the learning curve provided by 30 years of nuclear experience make precursor analysis a promising option available to the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement (BOEMRE) to bring cost-effective, risk-informed oversight to bear on the threat of catastrophic oil spills.catastrophic oil spills, quantitative risk analysis, risk-informed regulation

Changes in HPV prevalence following a national bivalent HPV vaccination programme in Scotland: a 7-year cross-sectional study

Background: On Sept 1, 2008, Scotland launched routine vaccination for human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18, targeted at 12–13-year-old girls, of whom 92·4% were fully vaccinated in 2008–09. In this study, we report on vaccine effectiveness of the bivalent vaccine in these vaccinated women who attended for routine cervical screening at age 20–21 years. Methods: In this 7-year cross-sectional study (covering birth cohorts 1988–1995), we sampled approximately 1000 samples per year from those attending cervical screening at age 20–21 years and tested each for HPV. By linkage to vaccination records we ascertained prevalence by birth cohort and vaccination status. Estimates of vaccine effectiveness for HPV types 16 and 18, HPV types 31, 33, and 45, other high-risk types, and any HPV were calculated using logistic regression. Findings: In total, 8584 samples were HPV genotyped. Prevalence of HPV types 16 and 18 reduced substantially from 30·0% (95% CI 26·9–33·1) in the 1988 cohort to 4·5% (3·5–5·7) in the 1995 cohort, giving a vaccine effectiveness of 89·1% (85·1–92·3) for those vaccinated at age 12–13 years. All cross-protective types showed significant vaccine effectiveness (HPV type 31, 93·8% [95% CI 83·8–98·5]; HPV type 33, 79·1% [64·2–89·0]; HPV type 45, 82·6% [61·5–93·9]). Unvaccinated individuals born in 1995 had a reduced odds of HPV types 16 and 18 infection compared with those born in 1988 (adjusted odds ratio 0·13 [95% CI 0·06–0·28]) and reduced odds of HPV types 31, 33, and 45 (odds ratio 0·45 [0·23–0·89]). Interpretation: Bivalent vaccination has led to a startling reduction in vaccine and cross-protective HPV types 7 years after vaccination. There is also evidence of herd protection against the vaccine-specific and cross-protective types in unvaccinated individuals born in 1995. These findings should be considered in cost-effectiveness models informing vaccine choice and models to shape the future of cervical screening programmes

The Self-Testing AfRica (STAR) Initiative: accelerating global access and scale-up of HIV self-testing.

INTRODUCTION: HIV self-testing (HIVST) was first proposed as an additional option to standard HIV testing services in the 1980s. By 2015, two years after the first HIVST kit was approved for the American market and the year in which Unitaid invested in the "HIV Self-Testing AfRica (STAR) Initiative," HIVST remained unexplored with negligible access in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). However, rapid progress had been made. This commentary outlines the interlinked market, regulatory and policy barriers that had inhibited product development and kept HIVST out of LMIC policy. We detail the components of STAR that enabled rapid HIVST scale-up, including critical investments in implementation, research, market forecasting, and engagement with manufacturers and regulators. DISCUSSION: The STAR Initiative has generated crucial information about how to distribute HIVST products effectively, ethically and efficiently. Service delivery models range from clinic-based distribution to workplace and partner-delivered approaches to reach first-time male testers, to community outreach to sex workers and general population "hotspots." These data directly informed supportive policy, notably the 2016 WHO guidelines strongly recommending HIVST as an additional testing approach, and regulatory change through support for WHO prequalification of the first HIVST kit in 2017. In July 2015, only two countries had national HIVST policies and were implementing HIVST. Three years later, 59 countries have policies, actively implemented in 28, with an additional 53 countries reporting policies under development. By end-November 2018 several quality-assured HIVST products had been registered, including two WHO prequalified tests. STAR Initiative countries have drafted regulations governing in vitro diagnostics, including HIVST products. With enabling policies, pre-qualification and regulations in place, donor procurement of kits has increased rapidly, to a forecasted estimate of 16 million HIVST kits procured by 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The STAR Initiative provided a strong foundation to introduce HIVST in LMICs and allow for rapid scale-up based on the wealth of multi-country evidence gathered. Together with sustained coordination and acceleration of market development work, HIVST can help address the testing gap and provide a focused and cost-effective means to expand access to treatment and prevention services

Aseptic Meningitis Epidemic during a West Nile Virus Avian Epizootic

While enteroviruses have been the most commonly identified cause of aseptic meningitis in the United States, the role of the emerging, neurotropic West Nile virus (WNV) is not clear. In summer 2001, an aseptic meningitis epidemic occurring in an area of a WNV epizootic in Baltimore, Maryland, was investigated to determine the relative contributions of WNV and enteroviruses. A total of 113 aseptic meningitis cases with onsets from June 1 to September 30, 2001, were identified at six hospitals. WNV immunoglobulin M tests were negative for 69 patients with available specimens; however, 43 (61%) of 70 patients tested enterovirus-positive by viral culture or polymerase chain reaction. Most (76%) of the serotyped enteroviruses were echoviruses 13 and 18. Enteroviruses, including previously rarely detected echoviruses, likely caused most aseptic meningitis cases in this epidemic. No WNV meningitis cases were identified. Even in areas of WNV epizootics, enteroviruses continue to be important causative agents of aseptic meningitis

The Time-Domain Spectroscopic Survey: Understanding the Optically Variable Sky with SEQUELS in SDSS-III

The Time-Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS) is an SDSS-IV eBOSS subproject primarily aimed at obtaining identification spectra of ~220,000 optically-variable objects systematically selected from SDSS/Pan-STARRS1 multi-epoch imaging. We present a preview of the science enabled by TDSS, based on TDSS spectra taken over ~320 deg^2 of sky as part of the SEQUELS survey in SDSS-III, which is in part a pilot survey for eBOSS in SDSS-IV. Using the 15,746 TDSS-selected single-epoch spectra of photometrically variable objects in SEQUELS, we determine the demographics of our variability-selected sample, and investigate the unique spectral characteristics inherent in samples selected by variability. We show that variability-based selection of quasars complements color-based selection by selecting additional redder quasars, and mitigates redshift biases to produce a smooth quasar redshift distribution over a wide range of redshifts. The resulting quasar sample contains systematically higher fractions of blazars and broad absorption line quasars than from color-selected samples. Similarly, we show that M-dwarfs in the TDSS-selected stellar sample have systematically higher chromospheric active fractions than the underlying M-dwarf population, based on their H-alpha emission. TDSS also contains a large number of RR Lyrae and eclipsing binary stars with main-sequence colors, including a few composite-spectrum binaries. Finally, our visual inspection of TDSS spectra uncovers a significant number of peculiar spectra, and we highlight a few cases of these interesting objects. With a factor of ~15 more spectra, the main TDSS survey in SDSS-IV will leverage the lessons learned from these early results for a variety of time-domain science applications.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, submitted to Ap

Traffic-related pollution and asthma prevalence in children. Quantification of associations with nitrogen dioxide.

Ambient nitrogen dioxide is a widely available measure of traffic-related air pollution and is inconsistently associated with the prevalence of asthma symptoms in children. The use of this relationship to evaluate the health impact of policies affecting traffic management and traffic emissions is limited by the lack of a concentration-response function based on systematic review and meta-analysis of relevant studies. Using systematic methods, we identified papers containing quantitative estimates for nitrogen dioxide and the 12 month period prevalence of asthma symptoms in children in which the exposure contrast was within-community and dominated by traffic pollution. One estimate was selected from each study according to an a priori algorithm. Odds ratios were standardised to 10 μg/m(3) and summary estimates were obtained using random- and fixed-effects estimates. Eighteen studies were identified. Concentrations of nitrogen dioxide were estimated for the home address (12) and/or school (8) using a range of methods; land use regression (6), study monitors (6), dispersion modelling (4) and interpolation (2). Fourteen studies showed positive associations but only two associations were statistically significant at the 5 % level. There was moderate heterogeneity (I(2) = 32.8 %) and the random-effects estimate for the odds ratio was 1.06 (95 % CI 1.00 to 1.11). There was no evidence of small study bias. Individual studies tended to have only weak positive associations between nitrogen dioxide and asthma prevalence but the summary estimate bordered on statistical significance at the 5 % level. Although small, the potential impact on asthma prevalence could be considerable because of the high level of baseline prevalence in many cities. Whether the association is causal or indicates the effects of a correlated pollutant or other confounders, the estimate obtained by the meta-analysis would be appropriate for estimating impacts of traffic pollution on asthma prevalence

Study of Natural Health Product Adverse Reactions (SONAR): Active Surveillance of Adverse Events Following Concurrent Natural Health product and Prescription Drug Use in Community Pharmacies

Background: Many consumers use natural health products (NHPs) concurrently with prescription medications. As NHP-related harms are under-reported through passive surveillance, the safety of concurrent NHP-drug use remains unknown. To conduct active surveillance in participating community pharmacies to identify adverse events related to concurrent NHP-prescription drug use. Methodology/Principal Findings: Participating pharmacists asked individuals collecting prescription medications about (i) concurrent NHP/drug use in the previous three months and (ii) experiences of adverse events. If an adverse event was identified and if the patient provided written consent, a research pharmacist conducted a guided telephone interview to gather additional information after obtaining additional verbal consent and documenting so within the interview form. Over a total of 112 pharmacy weeks, 2615 patients were screened, of which 1037 (39.7%; 95% CI: 37.8% to 41.5%) reported concurrent NHP and prescription medication use. A total of 77 patients reported a possible AE (2.94%; 95% CI: 2.4% to 3.7%), which represents 7.4% of those using NHPs and prescription medications concurrently (95%CI: 6.0% to 9.2%). Of 15 patients available for an interview, 4 (26.7%: 95% CI: 4.3% to 49.0%) reported an AE that was determined to be “probably” due to NHP use. Conclusions/Significance: Active surveillance markedly improves identification and reporting of adverse events associated with concurrent NHP-drug use. Although not without challenges, active surveillance is feasible and can generate adverse event data of sufficient quality to allow for meaningful adjudication to assess potential harms

Prevalence of Post-liver Transplant Complications and NASH-Related Cirrhosis in Postmenopausal Women

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Compared to premenopausal women, postmenopausal women are at greater risk of developing NAFLD and NASH, two common indications for liver transplantation (LT). We aim to determine the prevalence of NASH-related cirrhosis in postmenopausal women from a cohort of LT patients and investigate their post-LT complications. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Chart review of 1200 LT patients from 2002-2020 was performed. Postmenopausal women were defined as women over 51 and compared to a control group of men over 51. Prevalence of LT indications was determined. Subgroup analysis assessed cardiovascular disease risk. BMI and ASCVD risk scores were calculated at the time of LT and after 1 year. RESULTS: 510 patients met the inclusion criteria: 189 (37.1%) women and 321 (62.9%) men. The most common indication was NASH for women (26.5%, p CONCLUSIONS: Postmenopausal women were significantly more likely to have NASH as an indication for LT than men. Postmenopausal women had greater weight gain and more noncardiac complications than men. Women did not have increased cardiovascular outcomes, ASCVD risk, or mortality. Diet education and weight control in postmenopausal women with existing risk factors for NASH should be encouraged to modulate health outcomes

Influenza, Winter Olympiad, 2002

Prospective surveillance for influenza was performed during the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics. Oseltamivir was administered to patients with influenzalike illness and confirmed influenza, while their close contacts were given oseltamivir prophylactically. Influenza A/B was diagnosed in 36 of 188 patients, including 13 athletes. Prompt management limited the spread of this outbreak