FLEXINVERT: An atmospheric Bayesian inversion framework for determining surface fluxes of trace species using an optimized grid

We present a new modular Bayesian inversion framework, called FLEXINVERT, for estimating the surface fluxes of atmospheric trace species. FLEXINVERT can be applied to determine the spatio-temporal flux distribution of any species for which the atmospheric loss (if any) can be described as a linear process and can be used on continental to regional and even local scales with little or no modification. The relationship between changes in atmospheric mixing ratios and fluxes (the so-called source–receptor relationship) is described by a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) run in a backwards-in-time mode. In this study, we use FLEXPART but any LPDM could be used. The framework determines the fluxes on a nested grid of variable resolution, which is optimized based on the source–receptor relationships for the given observation network. Background mixing ratios are determined by coupling FLEXPART to the output of a global Eulerian model (or alternatively, from the observations themselves) and are also optionally optimized in the inversion. Spatial and temporal error correlations in the fluxes are taken into account using a simple model of exponential decay with space and time and, additionally, the aggregation error from the variable grid is accounted for. To demonstrate the use of FLEXINVERT, we present one case study in which methane fluxes are estimated in Europe in 2011 and compare the results to those of an independent inversion ensemble

A complete rethink is needed on how greenhouse gas emissions are quantified for national reporting

The 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris has for the first time agreed that both developed and developing countries need to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to maintain a global average temperature ‘well below’ 2°C and aim to limit the increase to less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial temperatures. This requires more ambitious emission reduction targets and an increased level of cooperation and transparency between countries. With the start of the second Kyoto Commitment period in 2013, and the 2015 Paris Agreement, it is, therefore, timely to reconsider how GHG emissions are determined and verified

A ship-based methodology for high precision atmospheric oxygen measurements and its application in the Southern Ocean region

A method for achieving continuous high precision measurements of atmospheric O-2 is presented based on a commercially available fuel-cell instrument, (Sable Systems, Oxzilla FC-II) with a precision of 7 per meg (approximately equivalent to 1.2 ppm) for a 6-min measurement. The Oxzilla was deployed on two voyages in the Western Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean, in February 2003 and in April 2004, making these the second set of continuous O-2 measurements ever made from a ship. The results show significant temporal variation in O-2, in the order of +/- 10 per meg over 6-hourly time intervals, and substantial spatial variation. Data from both voyages show an O-2 maximum centred on 50 degrees S, which is most likely to be the result of biologically driven O-2 outgassing in the region of subtropical convergence around New Zealand, and a decreasing O-2 trend towards Antarctica. O-2 from the ship-based measurements is elevated compared with measurements from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography flask-sampling network, and the O-2 maximum is also not captured in the network observations. This preliminary study shows that ship-based continuous measurements are a valuable addition to current fixed site sampling programmes for the understanding of ocean-atmosphere O-2 exchange processes. [References: 39

Stochastic analysis of exit fluid temperature records from the active TAG hydrothermal mound (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 26°N) : 1. Modes of variability and implications for subsurface flow

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): B07101, doi:10.1029/2006JB004435.Yearlong time series records of exit fluid temperature from the active TAG hydrothermal mound (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 26°N) reveal a complex space-time pattern of flow variability within the mineral deposit. Exit fluid temperatures were measured every 8–10 min from 17 sites distributed across the upper terrace of the mound from June 2003 to June 2004. High-temperature records were obtained using Deep Sea Power and Light SeaLogger® probes deployed in fractures discharging ∼360°C black smoker fluids, and low-temperature records were obtained using VEMCO Ltd. Minilog probes deployed in cracks discharging ∼20°C diffuse flow fluids. The temperature records are considerably more variable than those acquired from vent fields on the fast spreading East Pacific Rise and exhibit a complex mix of both episodic and periodic variability. The diffuse flow records alternate between periods of discharge and periods of what I infer to be recharge when fluid temperatures are equal to background water column levels (∼2.7°C) as ambient seawater is drawn into the seafloor. The space-time patterns of these episodic variations suggest that they represent reorganizations of the secondary circulation system driving diffuse discharge on the upper terrace of the mound on timescales from a few hours to a few days, most likely in response to permeability perturbations. Harmonic temperature oscillations were observed over a range of periods, with the principal lunar semidiurnal tidal period (M2) being most dominant. During certain times, exit fluid temperatures at diffuse sites pulse at diurnal and semidiurnal tidal periods when they are hovering near background water column levels, which I interpret as flow reversals associated with the vertical displacement of a fluid boundary layer at the seafloor interface when the local net flux is near zero. The pulsing behavior is predicted by poroelastic models of tidal loading but is not consistent with effects from tidal currents, which demonstrates that poroelastic effects from tidal loading modulate shallow subsurface flow at the active TAG mound.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (OCE-0137329)

Acceleration of global N₂O emissions seen from two decades of atmospheric inversion

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most important long-lived GHG and an important stratospheric ozone depleting substance. Agricultural practices and the use of N-fertilizers have greatly enhanced emissions of N2O. Here, we present estimates of N2O emissions determined from three global atmospheric inversion frameworks during the period 1998–2016. We find that global N2O emissions increased substantially from 2009 and at a faster rate than estimated by the IPCC emission factor approach. The regions of East Asia and South America made the largest contributions to the global increase. From the inversion-based emissions, we estimate a global emission factor of 2.3 ± 0.6%, which is significantly larger than the IPCC Tier-1 default for combined direct and indirect emissions of 1.375%. The larger emission factor and accelerating emission increase found from the inversions suggest that N2O emission may have a nonlinear response at global and regional scales with high levels of N-input

The Global N20 Model Intercomparison Project

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and also an ozone-depleting substance that has both natural and anthropogenic sources. Large estimation uncertainty remains on the magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of N2O fluxes and the key drivers of N2O production in the terrestrial biosphere. Some terrestrial biosphere models have been evolved to account for nitrogen processes and to show the capability to simulate N2O emissions from land ecosystems at the global scale, but large discrepancies exist among their estimates primarily because of inconsistent input datasets, simulation protocol, and model structure and parameterization schemes. Based on the consistent model input data and simulation protocol, the global N2O Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) was initialized with 10 state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models that include nitrogen (N) cycling. Specific objectives of NMIP are to 1) unravel the major N cycling processes controlling N2O fluxes in each model and identify the uncertainty sources from model structure, input data, and parameters; 2) quantify the magnitude and spatial and temporal patterns of global and regional N2O fluxes from the preindustrial period (1860) to present and attribute the relative contributions of multiple environmental factors to N2O dynamics; and 3) provide a benchmarking estimate of N2O fluxes through synthesizing the multimodel simulation results and existing estimates from ground-based observations, inventories, and statistical and empirical extrapolations. This study provides detailed descriptions for the NMIP protocol, input data, model structure, and key parameters, along with preliminary simulation results. The global and regional N2O estimation derived from the NMIP is a key component of the global N2O budget synthesis activity jointly led by the Global Carbon Project and the International Nitrogen Initiative