A New Tree-Ring-Based, Semi-Quantitative Approach for the Determination of Snow Avalanche Events: use of Classification Trees for Validation

International audienceOn forested paths, dendrogeomorphology has been demonstrated to represent a powerful Vincent Jomelli* tool to reconstruct past activity of avalanches, an indispensable step in avalanche hazard Delphine Grancher* assessment. Several quantitative and qualitative approaches have been shown to yield Markus Stoffel † ‡ reasonable event chronologies but the question of the completeness of tree-ring records remains debatable. Here, we present an alternative semi-quantitative approach for the Christophe Corona † determination of past snow avalanche events. The approach relies on the assessment of Daniel Brunstein* the number and position of disturbed trees within avalanche paths as well as on the Nicolas Eckert § and intensity of reactions in trees. In order to demonstrate that no bias was induced by the dendrogeomorphic expert, we carry out a statistical evaluation (Classification and Regres-Michael Deschatres § sion Trees, or CART) of the approach. Results point to the consistency and replicability *Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, of the procedure and to the fact that the approach is not restricted to the identification of Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, UMR high-magnitude avalanches. Evaluation of the semi-quantitative approach is illustrated on 8591 CNRS, 1 place Aristide Briand, Fa well-documented path in Chamonix, French Alps. For the period 1905-2010, comparison 92195 Meudon cedex, France †Dendrolab.ch, Institute of Geological between the avalanche years recorded in a substantial database (Enquête Permanente sur Sciences, University of Berne, les Avalanches, or EPA) and those defined with dendrogeomorphic techniques shows that Baltzerstrasse 1 ‫ם‬ 3, CH-3012 Berne, the avalanche record reconstructed from tree-ring series contains 38% of the observed Switzerland events

A New Tree-Ring-Based, Semi-Quantitative Approach for the Determination of Snow Avalanche Events: use of Classification Trees for Validation

On forested paths, dendrogeomorphology has been demonstrated to represent a powerful tool to reconstruct past activity of avalanches, an indispensable step in avalanche hazard assessment. Several quantitative and qualitative approaches have been shown to yield reasonable event chronologies but the question of the completeness of tree-ring records remains debatable. Here, we present an alternative semi-quantitative approach for the determination of past snow avalanche events. The approach relies on the assessment of the number and position of disturbed trees within avalanche paths as well as on the intensity of reactions in trees. In order to demonstrate that no bias was induced by the dendrogeomorphic expert, we carry out a statistical evaluation (Classification and Regression Trees, or CART) of the approach. Results point to the consistency and replicability of the procedure and to the fact that the approach is not restricted to the identification of high-magnitude avalanches. Evaluation of the semi-quantitative approach is illustrated on a well-documented path in Chamonix, French Alps. For the period 1905–2010, comparison between the avalanche years recorded in a substantial database (Enquête Permanente sur les Avalanches, or EPA) and those defined with dendrogeomorphic techniques shows that the avalanche record reconstructed from tree-ring series contains 38% of the observed events

Validation of extreme snow avalanches and related return periods derived from a statistical-dynamical model using tree-ring techniques

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Can we infer avalanche–climate relations using tree-ring data? Case studies in the French Alps

International audienceDendrogeomorphology is a powerful tool to determine past avalanche activity, but whether or not the obtained annually resolved chronologies are sufficiently detailed to infer avalanche-climate relationships (in terms of temporal resolution) remains an open question. In this work, avalanche activity is reconstructed in five paths of the French Alps and crossed with a set of snow and weather variables covering the period 1959-2009 on a monthly and annual (winter) basis. The variables which best explain avalanche activity are highlighted with an original variable selection procedure implemented within a logistic regression framework. The same approach is used for historical chronologies available for the same paths, as well as for the composite tree-ring/historical chronologies. Results suggest that dendrogeomorphic time series allow capturing the relations between snow or climate and avalanche occurrences to a certain extent. Weak links exist with annually resolved snow and weather variables and the different avalanche chronologies. On the contrary, clear statistical relations exist between these and monthly resolved snow and weather variables. In detail, tree rings seem to preferentially record avalanches triggered during cold winter storms with heavy precipitation. Conversely, historical avalanche data seem to contain a majority of events that were released later in the season and during episodes of strong positive temperature anomalies

Unstable ice stream in Greenland during the Younger Dryas cold event

Past, present, and future ice sheet stability is closely linked to the dynamic behavior of major draining ice streams and surrounding ice shelves. While short observational records document the recent variability and acceleration of ice streams, the long-term dynamics of ice streams remain poorly documented. Here, we date the Pjetursson’s Moraine on Disko Island, Greenland, to 12.2 ± 0.6 ka and demonstrate that the Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) ice stream collapsed during the middle of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold interval. We suggest that this collapse was due to the incursion of warm subsurface water under the ice shelf fronting the JI ice stream, as well as increased surface-air temperature and sea-surface temperature seasonality starting at the beginning of the YD cold interval. The triggered acceleration of the land-based JI and the delivery of icebergs into Disko Bugt potentially contributed to Heinrich Event 0 at the end of the YD. The collapse of the JI ice stream 12.2 ± 0.6 ka ago demonstrates that calving marine-based ice margins can respond rapidly to environmental changes. It provides a new benchmark for marine-terminating ice stream models

Unstable ice stream in Greenland during the Younger Dryas cold event

International audiencePast, present, and future ice sheet stability is closely linked to the dynamic behavior of major draining ice streams and surrounding ice shelves. While short observational records document the recent variability and acceleration of ice streams, the long-term dynamics of ice streams remain poorly documented. Here, we date the Pjetursson’s Moraine on Disko Island, Greenland, to 12.2 ± 0.6 ka and demonstrate that the Jakobshavn Isbræ (JI) ice stream collapsed during the middle of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold interval. We suggest that this collapse was due to the incursion of warm subsurface water under the ice shelf fronting the JI ice stream, as well as increased surface-air temperature and sea-surface temperature seasonality starting at the beginning of the YD cold interval. The triggered acceleration of the land-based JI and the delivery of icebergs into Disko Bugt potentially contributed to Heinrich Event 0 at the end of the YD. The collapse of the JI ice stream 12.2 ± 0.6 ka ago demonstrates that calving marine-based ice margins can respond rapidly to environmental changes. It provides a new benchmark for marine-terminating ice stream models