Decline in an Atlantic Puffin population : evaluation of magnitude and mechanisms

Funding: This study was funded annually by Fair Isle Bird Observatory Trust (www.fairislebirdobs.co.uk) with contributions from the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (jncc.defra.gov.uk). Funding was received from these two sources by Fair Isle Bird Observatory from 1986 to 2013. The Joint Nature Conservation Committee and Fair Isle Bird Observatory Trust supplied guidance on study design, data collection, analyses, preparation of the manuscript and the decision to publish.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances, temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long-distance migratory birds

Acknowledgements We thank all Fair Isle Bird Observatory staff and volunteers for help with data collection and acknowledge the foresight of George Waterston and Ken Williamson in instigating the observatory and census methodology. We thank all current and previous directors of Fair Isle Bird Observatory Trust for their contributions, particularly Dave Okill and Mike Wood for their stalwart support for the long-term data collection and for the current analyses. Dawn Balmer and Ian Newton provided helpful guidance on manuscript drafts. We thank Ally Phillimore and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. This study would have been impossible without the Fair Isle community's invaluable support and patience over many decades, which is very gratefully acknowledged. WTSM and JMR designed and undertook analyses, wrote the paper and contributed to data collection and compilation, MB contributed to analysis and editing, all other authors oversaw and undertook data collection and compilation and contributed to editing.Peer reviewedPostprin

Among‐species variation in six decades of changing migration timings explained through ecology, life‐history and local migratory abundance

We thank all Fair Isle residents for their long-term support, and W.T.S. Miles and I.J. Andrews for database construction and management. V.R.D was funded by a UK NERC SUPER DTP PhD studentship supported by University of Aberdeen and Fair Isle Bird Observatory Trust.Species exploiting seasonal environments must alter timings of key life‐history events in response to large‐scale climatic changes in order to maintain trophic synchrony with required resources. Yet, substantial among‐species variation in long‐term phenological changes has been observed. Advancing from simply describing such variation towards predicting future phenological responses requires studies that rigorously quantify and explain variation in the direction and magnitude of changing timings across diverse species in relation to key ecological and life‐history variables. Accordingly, we fitted multi‐quantile regressions to 59 years of multi‐species data on spring and autumn bird migration timings through northern Scotland. We demonstrate substantial variation in changes in timings among 72 species, and tested whether such variation can be explained by species ecology, life‐history and changes in local abundance. Consistent with predictions, species that advanced their migration timing in one or both seasons had more seasonally restricted diet types, fewer suitable breeding habitat types, shorter generation lengths and capability to produce multiple offspring broods per year. In contrast, species with less seasonally restricted diet types and that produce single annual offspring broods, showed no change. Meanwhile, contrary to prediction, long‐distance and short‐distance migrants advanced migration timings similarly. Changes in migration timing also varied with changes in local migratory abundance, such that species with increasing seasonal abundance apparently altered their migration timing, whilst species with decreasing abundance did not. Such patterns broadly concur with expectation given adaptive changes in migration timing. However, we demonstrate that similar patterns can be generated by numerical sampling given changing local abundances. Any apparent phenology‐abundance relationships should, therefore, be carefully validated and interpreted. Overall, our results show that migrant bird species with differing ecologies and life‐histories showed systematically differing phenological changes over six decades contextualised by large‐scale environmental changes, potentially facilitating future predictions and altering temporal dynamics of seasonal species co‐occurrences.Peer reviewe

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. METHODS: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. FINDINGS: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96-1·28). INTERPRETATION: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Background: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. Methods: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. Findings: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96–1·28). Interpretation: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Foraging behaviour of brent geese, Branta b. bernicla, on grasslands: effects of sward length and nitrogen content

Feeding behaviour and preferences of brent geese, Branta b. bernicla were observed on pastures of different sward lengths and nitrogen contents. On swards of 2.0-6.0 cm captive geese took larger bites and had a higher intake rate when feeding on 6-cm swards than when feeding on shorter ones. In the field wild geese chose 6-cm swards in preference to both shorter and longer ones. For unfertilized pastures there was a strong negative relationship between nitrogen content and sward height: 11-cm swards contained 2.8% nitrogen, 3.5-cm swards 4.2% nitrogen. Application of 75 kg N ha-1 organically based fertilizer at the end of October eliminated this relationship between nitrogen content and sward height, swards of all heights then having a mean content of 4.1% N. On fertilized plots the geese preferred swards longer than 6 cm with no indication of a decrease in preference up to the maximum height investigated, 16 cm. Breaking strain of grass laminae was measured to give an indication of the proportion of strengthening tissues in the leaves and hence their digestibility. Apical laminae from longer swards had a higher breaking strain than those from shorter swards. Unfertilized swards had a higher breaking strain than fertilized swards but the difference in breaking strain between long and short swards was the same on fertilized and control treatments. These results are discussed in relation to the forage maturation hypothesis and are interpreted as indicating that the primary constraint on maximizing energy intake rates is not the reduced energy digestibility of older foliage but the reduced nitrogen content in the higher-biomass swards. We conclude that it is the balance between maximizing energy intake and nitrogen absorption rates which results in the observed preference for intermediate-height swards

Approaches for beach safety and education in Ghana : a case study for developing countries with a surf coast

Beach drowning in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as the western African nation of Ghana, is a poorly understood problem. A physical site assessment of the Ghana coast was undertaken to determine beach types, hazards, and the potential for implementing community surf education and lifeguarding services. A questionnaire survey was administered to 346 participants in coastal regions providing information related to beach drowning. Results demonstrated that a significant number of drownings occur on this wave-dominated coastline, particularly on public holidays, with 82% of participants knowing someone who had drowned. Ignorance of the rip current hazard was evident with 37% of participants, particularly students, indicating they would swim in a hazardous rip current location. The majority of participants (57%) indicated they would seek help when they saw someone in a dangerous situation. These results indicate a strong need for community beach safety education and lifeguard services in Ghana.12 page(s

Population size estimates for Atlantic Puffin and Great Skua.

<p>A. The maximum count of individual adult Atlantic Puffins on Fair Isle in census years between 1986 and 2013 and B. the total number of Great Skua nesting pairs (apparently occupied territories) on Fair Isle in 1987 to 2013.</p

Diet composition of Great Skua pairs in 2011 and 2012.

<p>Diet composition of Great Skua pairs in 2011 and 2012.</p

Atlantic Puffin survival and resighting probability estimates.

<p>A. Mean estimated adult Atlantic Puffin apparent survival probability (φ) and B. resighting probability (p) during 1987 to 2012. Estimates of φ and p are from models with random year effects on φ and p (<a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0131527#pone.0131527.t001" target="_blank">Table 1</a> and see <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0131527#sec002" target="_blank">Methods</a>). Dashed lines represent ± 95% confidence intervals.</p